Polls Tightening, Donald Trump Close to Margin of Error in Swing States
PAUL J. RICHARDS/AFP/Getty Images
by WARNER TODD HUSTON25 Oct 2016236
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As the weeks tick down to Election Day, the polls are continuing to tighten, with surveys showing states such as Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio pulling to within or near the margin of error.
In the recent Remington Research Group polls, Hillary leads in Colorado (45 to 43), Pennsylvania (45 to 42), Wisconsin (46 to 41), and Virginia (48 to 43). The polls were taken between October 20 to 22, but the margin of error is plus or minus 2.5 percent, meaning that many of these Hillary leads are perhaps smaller than they appear.
The Remington polls find Trump up in several states, as well. Trump tops Clinton in Ohio (46 to 42), North Carolina (47 to 44), and Nevada (47 to 44). In Florida Remington finds Trump and Clinton tied at 46 each.
In no case in the Remington polls does Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson exceed five percent.
Meanwhile, the Hendrix College poll gives Trump a large lead in Arkansas with 56 to Clinton’s 33. Johnson measures in at four while Green Party candidate Jill Stein figured in at a low two percent. This result is nearly unchanged from Hendrix’s poll in mid September, when Trump had 55 to Clinton’s 34.
The Hendrix poll was taken on October 21 with a margin of error plus or minus 4.6 percent.
Follow Warner Todd Huston on Twitter @warnerthuston or email the author at email@example.com.
Current Vote Trends Show Trump Will Carry Florida By Close To Ten Points 55-45…
Posted on October 25, 2016 by sundance
You have to know Florida to understand Florida. In many ways it’s a microcosm of the larger U.S. electorate, everyone is from somewhere else; and in some ways it’s a unique place known only to generational crackers, which has nothing whatsoever to do with race or hyphens.
If you grew up in Florida you’ll already know most of this review. Or if, like me, your childhood Tupperware was a matching set of Cool Whip containers, well, it should make sense too…
After the primary season voting we shared some insight into what the results meant for the general election overall. We even made some predictions based on that result. It’s now seven months later, and despite the media noise, the reality of what’s taking place on the ground aligns with all previous expectations. Continue reading →
Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP) confirmed today that a gross payment of $15.0 million has been received from the Kurdistan Regional Government (“KRG”) for Shaikan crude oil export sales in August 2016.
Gulf Keystone and the KRG’s Ministry of Natural Resources (“MNR”) continue to work towards agreeing the final form of the May, June, July and August 2016 invoices in parallel with the negotiation and finalisation of the Second Amendment to the Shaikan Production Sharing Contract (“Second Shaikan Amendment”), as per the Bilateral Agreement between the Company and the MNR announced on 17 March 2016.
Following receipt of the payment, the Company’s current cash position is $108.9 million.
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Genel Energy plc issues the following trading and operations update in respect of Q3 2016. The information contained herein has not been audited and may be subject to further review.
Murat Özgül (pictured), Chief Executive of Genel, said:
“Genel has received $163 million in cash proceeds during 2016, underpinning the drilling of successful production wells across Taq Taq and Tawke.
“The KRG has made significant progress in restructuring the region’s economy. With export volumes at Ceyhan having increased following a new deal with the federal government, and the recent recovery in the oil price, this bodes well for the region’s cash flows. Despite the recent delay in payments, we remain optimistic that they will continue, facilitating further investment across our KRI assets.“
Q3 2016 OPERATING PERFORMANCE
Q3 2016 net production averaged 53,100 bopd, an 8% decrease on the previous quarter
Production and sales by field during Q3 2016 were as follows:
Production by field for the nine months ending 30 September 2016 was as follows:
At Taq Taq (Genel 44% working interest) two side-track wells, TT-27x and TT-07z, were successfully *drilled and completed during the period, partially offsetting the decline from existing wells. A third *side-track, TT-16y, is in progress. Taq Taq production in October to date has averaged 50,000 bopd
Through development drilling and reservoir management, the focus at Taq Taq remains mitigating *field declines and reducing the concentration of production from the crest of the field
The Company is currently in the process of preparing a revised Field Development Plan (‘FDP’) for Taq *Taq, which is expected to be completed in early 2017. The revised FDP will establish the next phase of *the development plan, notably with respect to new development well locations and the overall *reservoir management strategy, while also identifying necessary resources and technologies required *to implement future activity.* In advance of the FDP completion, a tender has been initiated to *procure a more powerful drilling rig for the start of 2017, which would provide greater optionality *around development drilling at Taq Taq
Tawke (Genel 25% working interest) production in Q3 2016 was in line with the first half of the year. *Development activity recommenced during the period, with the Tawke-32 (Jeribe water injector), *Tawke-33, Tawke-34 (Jeribe producers), and Tawke-31 (Cretaceous producer) wells all being drilled. *The Tawke-37 (Jeribe producer) was drilled post period end, with all wells in the current campaign *adding to field output capacity. Tawke production in October to date has averaged 105,000 bopd, with *current production levels at 120,000 bopd
The Peshkabir-2 appraisal well on the Tawke licence commenced drilling in early October and is **expected to take around three months to complete
On the Chia Surkh PSC, work continues to establish a low cost development solution for the **discovered Tertiary oil resources, which are currently estimated at 3-10 mmbbls. An FDP submission is **targeted by the end of 2016. Consequently, the Company expects to write down the Chia Surkh **carrying value to a nominal amount. At end 2015, the Chia Surkh carrying value was $198 million
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By John Lee.
Oman Air has announce that it will be commencing its four times weekly service from Muscat to Najaf from November.
Paul Gregorowitsch, Chief Executive Officer at Oman Air, said:
“Following a temporary delay of our service to Najaf as the Operational teams were assessing and scheduling all fleet types for safe deployment on the route, Oman Air is delighted to start this service as our first destination in Iraq.
“The holy city of Najaf offers excellent potential for business travellers, those visiting friends and family, and for pilgrims. We anticipate a high demand.”
(Source: Oman Air)
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The contributions of coalition partners in the fight against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant are invaluable, Defense Secretary Ash Carter said today at the opening of the counter-ISIL small group defense ministerial at Hexagone Balard, the new French defense ministry building in Paris.
The secretary, in prepared remarks, said the coalition defense ministers’ attendance at the ministerial is vital to the U.S.-led coalition’s campaign to deliver ISIL a lasting defeat.
“In a few weeks, everyone here in France and around the world will mark the anniversary of the 13 November Paris attacks,” Carter said. “In the year since, the French people have stood resolute in the face of terror. And the United States is proud to stand with France, … *and I know each member of this coalition feels the same.”
The secretary told the ministerial members tomorrow marks another important anniversary. “A year ago, President Obama approved the first in a series of decisions to begin accelerating our campaign against ISIL,” he said.
In a news conference with French Defense Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian following the talks, Carter said he and Le Drian an “excellent” meeting with 11 of their counterparts. The purpose of the conference, he said, was fourfold:
To review the results of the coalition’s military campaign plan;
To identify what the coalition can do to continue to accelerate the accomplishment of the campaign;
To discuss how the coalition partners can better protect themselves; and
To address how to sustain and evolve the robust coalition.
Mosul Operation According To Plan
Carter, who visited Iraq last weekend, said he is encouraged to see the counter-ISIL campaign “proceeding according to the plan we laid out.” Iraqi forces, he said, are fighting with skill, commitment and courage.
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U.S. and coalition military forces continued to attack Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant terrorists in Iraq and Syria on Monday, Combined Joint Task Force Operation Inherent Resolve officials reported yesterday.
Officials reported details of the latest strikes, noting that assessments of results are based on initial reports.
Strikes in Syria
Fighter and remotely piloted aircraft conducted three strikes in Syria:
Near Abu Kamal, a strike produced inconclusive results.
Near Mara, two strikes engaged an ISIL tactical unit and destroyed two fighting positions, a mortar system and a vehicle.
Strikes in Iraq
Attack, bomber, fighter, remotely piloted and rotary wing aircraft and rocket artillery conducted eight strikes in Iraq, coordinated with and in support of Iraq’s government:
Near Rutbah, a strike engaged an ISIL tactical unit and destroyed 11 vehicles.
Near Mosul, five strikes engaged an ISIL tactical unit and two rocket positions; destroyed 22 fighting positions, eight vehicles, eight tunnels, seven mortar systems, six rocket rails, three heavy machine guns, three rocket systems, two light machine guns, two command and control nodes, a vehicle bomb, a communications tower, an ISIL-held building and a mortar cache; and damaged a mortar system.
Near Sinjar, a strike engaged four staging areas.
Near Sultan Abdallah, a strike engaged an ISIL tactical unit and destroyed two vehicles and a weapons cache.
Task force officials define a strike as one or more kinetic events that occur in roughly the same geographic location to produce a single, sometimes cumulative, effect. Therefore, officials explained, a single aircraft delivering a single weapon against a lone ISIL vehicle is one strike, but so is multiple aircraft delivering dozens of weapons against buildings, vehicles and weapon systems in a compound, for example, having the cumulative effect of making those targets harder or impossible for ISIL to use. Accordingly, officials said, they do not report the number or type of aircraft employed in a strike, the number of munitions dropped in each strike, or the number of individual munition impact points against a target.
Part of Operation Inherent Resolve
The strikes were conducted as part of Operation Inherent Resolve, the operation to eliminate the ISIL terrorist group and the threat they pose to Iraq, Syria, and the wider international community. The destruction of ISIL targets in Syria and Iraq further limits the terrorist group’s ability to project terror and conduct operations, officials said.
Coalition nations that have conducted strikes in Iraq include the United States, Australia, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Jordan, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. Coalition nations that have conducted strikes in Syria include the United States, Australia, Bahrain, Canada, France, Jordan, the Netherlands, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates and the United Kingdom.
(Source: US Dept of Defense)
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From Al Jazeera. Any opinions expressed are those of the authors, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Iraq Business News.
Turkey’s foreign minister has said its troops have killed 17 ISIL fighters with artillery and mortars since the operation in Mosul began.
However, Ankara is locked in a dispute with Baghdad over the presence of Turkish troops at the Bashiqa camp.
Iraq says the Turkish soldiers are there without permission.
Mohammed Zanagana, a political analyst, discusses the Kurdish perspective on the issue with Al Jazeera’s Imran Khan in Erbil:
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Yes, you continue to express yourself in a most moronic manner.
Additionally, if how you voted is none of our business, then your opinions and terribly rude, bigoted, racist, sexist, hateful, false, degrading and in every way phobic posts, pounding us with progressive, PC talking points on who we should choose for the next President of the United States are without merit.
I choose to vote Donald J Trump for POTUS and MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!!! I detest hypocrisy, so, let all the world know who I support..I'm proud to be a 'Deplorable, Irredeemable....TRUMPSTER...100% through and through..as for the illegals & corrupt...we're coming after you!!!!!
MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!!! VOTE TRUMP/PENCE!!! SEND HILLARY TO PRISON 2016!!
GOD BLESS THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA!!!!!
Donald Trump’s chances of winning are approaching zero
Washington Post Mon, Oct 24 8:51 AM PDT
The election is in 15 days. And the electoral map just keeps looking grimmer and grimmer for Donald Trump.
We are making three changes to The Fix map this week, all favoring Hillary Clinton.
Everything you need to know about the 2016 election]
First, we are moving Nevada, where Trump had shown surprising strength for much of this year, from “toss-up” to “lean Democratic” amid signs that the state is slipping away from him. Clinton has led in six of the past seven polls in the state — the other showed the race a tie — and now has an average lead of more than four points, according to Real Clear Politics. Trump’s collapse in the state is badly impacting Republicans’ chances of winning Sen. Harry Reid’s (D) open seat. Rep. Joe Heck (R), who led for much of the year, now finds himself behind former state attorney general Catherine Cortez Masto (D).
We’re also moving Utah — yes, Utah! — from “lean Republican” to “toss-up” as independent candidate Evan McMullin, a Utah native and Mormon, continues to show considerable polling resiliency in the Beehive State. Count us as skeptical that Clinton can win in such a Republican state. But McMullin is taking lots of Republican voters away from Trump, and it’s not out of the question that the third party candidate could win the state’s six electoral votes.
And, finally — and much to our amazement — we are adding Texas to our list of competitive states, rating it as “lean Republican.” The last three polls taken in the state have shown Trump ahead by three points (twice) and four points; the Real Clear Politics polling average in the state puts Trump up 4.6 points. It speaks to how badly Trump is performing even in longtime Republican strongholds that the debate going forward won’t be whether Texas should stay on the list of competitive races but whether it should move to “toss-up.”
Those changes tilt the electoral map — and math — even more heavily toward Clinton. Clinton now has 323 electoral votes either solidly for her or leaning her way. Trump has just 180. (Reminder: You need 270 to win.) And, virtually all of the vulnerability from here until Nov. 8 is on Trump’s side. Arizona and Utah, two states that haven’t voted for a Democratic presidential nominee since 1996 and 1964, respectively, are toss-ups! Texas, the one large-population state that has long been considered solidly Republican, is within mid-single digits! States like Colorado and Virginia — swing states in the past two elections — aren’t even real opportunities for Trump anymore!
Everywhere you look, Trump is underperforming where Mitt Romney was at this point in 2012. And Romney only got 206 electoral votes and lost by 5 million or so in the popular vote.