PDA

View Full Version : Realistic Expectations



What If....
05-20-2016, 06:41 PM
What are the realistic returns of the ISX? Say you invested 5k back in 2006 and have about 5M shares of various banks (in Warka proxy).

How much could it be worth in 30 years?

pirata
05-20-2016, 08:40 PM
Enough for your children,look at Japan and Germany
today!!

millionairetobe71
05-28-2016, 04:29 AM
What are the realistic returns of the ISX? Say you invested 5k back in 2006 and have about 5M shares of various banks (in Warka proxy).

How much could it be worth in 30 years?

Well..... this is my thoughts.....

If we are able to kick ISIS out of Iraq, and if the economic and security atmosphere improves, most importantly, the HCL passes, then there are good chances that you and your generation will be well position financially....

And we are not even talking if we compound the shares. But Iraq is a whole different beast that it is in a whole different category. It is extremely difficult to analyze and trying to determine what path the country may take that will help us to, at the least, vaguely predicts how well our investment will do.

We can only hope that they will follow the same steps as Kurdistan and get better......

mcdan
05-29-2016, 12:39 AM
I probably get lamb blasted , but what difference does it make.

The dinar is based on one dinar per share . The removal of the three zero of the SDR rate .000597 would multiply the dinar by 1000 times of the present value.

So IMO for a example BBOB at .680 fils x 1000 would equal 680 dinars.

Heck a guy can dream can't he it my nickel.

millionairetobe71
05-30-2016, 05:19 AM
I probably get lamb blasted , but what difference does it make.

The dinar is based on one dinar per share . The removal of the three zero of the SDR rate .000597 would multiply the dinar by 1000 times of the present value.

So IMO for a example BBOB at .680 file x 1000 would equal 680 dinars.

Heck a guy can dream can't he it my nickel.



I don't know but I think that it does make a lot of difference. I think that there has been some studies related to your inquiry, but I can't recall if is Zimbabwe or Venezuela economy....

mcdan
06-02-2016, 07:07 AM
Here a sample Kuwait National Bank

http://www.kuwaitse.com/Stock/Stock.aspx?Stk=101

haggisbasher
06-02-2016, 07:44 AM
I Believe Warka bank share wear trading during Saddam rule a high of 35 IQD and I think could go trade at this level again, think I will buy me some & soon.LOL.

mcdan
06-02-2016, 07:56 AM
I have seen the National Kuwait Bank at 2500 in the past. There share value is 100 file ( is what is stated in the link I just posted )
The high Warka Stock was in 2005 . The history of there stock price was still there the last time I look. I believe I saw 39 dinars for the high.

What If....
06-03-2016, 07:02 PM
I have seen the National Kuwait Bank at 2500 in the past. There share value is 100 file ( is what is stated in the link I just posted )
The high Warka Stock was in 2005 . The history of there stock price was still there the last time I look. I believe I saw 39 dinars for the high.
It definitely could get back up there. But what about the 75 billion shares Warka has? NKB themselves only have about 5 billion.

mcdan
06-04-2016, 04:00 AM
Cancel by me no reason

What If....
12-15-2016, 07:35 PM
Any new information?

After looking online and on here it looks like they will reverse split by two zeros. So 1M of shares would be 10k and the price would go from 1iqd to $0.25ish.

or they'll do a three zero, and we wont make anymore if we had invested in the NYSE.

JMO

pirata
12-15-2016, 08:40 PM
Any new information?

After looking online and on here it looks like they will reverse split by two zeros. So 1M of shares would be 10k and the price would go from 1iqd to $0.25ish.

or they'll do a three zero, and we wont make anymore if we had invested in the NYSE.

JMO
Link and data; please

What If....
12-15-2016, 09:40 PM
Link and data; please
http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&ie=UTF8&prev=_t&rurl=translate.google.com&sl=ar&tl=en&u=http://www.albaghdadianews.com/reports/item/6585-vDk-KBnE-IkO-jnL%25D8%25A9-AkAYOmL-BID-GdJ-AkAZHJAE.html








It's at the bottom of the first post. He mentions 10000 turning into 100. As far as the other, you can crunch the numbers if they do a 1000:1 reverse of shares.

Look at banks in regional countries, they have 3-5B in shares. Warka would have 105-250M with a reverse and shares worth 1-2 dinar. If you count future growth of reaching 5-10 dinar a share and future stock splits over 30ish years, you don't wind up with much more than if you had invested into the NYSE.

1k (USD) X 7 (between 5-10 dinar) X 15 (stock splits) = 100k- ish?

Is that a good return? Ya I guess. Over 30 years? about average.

I pray I'm wrong, believe me. But it's quite possible we just get average returns in the longrun.

What If....
01-11-2017, 04:15 AM
Link and data; please

Capital Markets Board• Announced that on the stock market, the market price declared forthe stock of nominal value of 1.000 TL in the existing system,would be declared for the stock of nominal value of 1 YTL in thenew system.• Changed the systems from �1.000.000 TL (nominal) = 1.000pieces = 1 lot� to �1 YTL (nominal) = 1 unit = 1 lot�.• Decided not to conduct operations in the IMKB Stock Markets inorder to avoid any possible complication, the exchange processwhile enabling the members to conduct their year-end operationson December 31st.• Applied the required modifications in the calculation of theIMKB, while maintaining the existing digit numbers to providecontinuity.• Decided to enable price and quotation entries as three decimaldigits for forward exchange operations, with the new price step tobe 0,001 YTL and the profits/losses due to updating collateralprices to accounts as two decimal digits.• Decided the unit prices for investment bonds to be displayed as sixdigits in YTL.

This is for Turkey. What kind of returns would we see if Iraq did something like this?

tipawin
01-12-2017, 09:19 PM
Hi whatif

i can give you some actuals

2007 investment balance of 4,582,500 iqd stock portfolio 22 stocks are now worth 3,434,470 iqd a rise of 400,000 iqd this year

in 2005 these same stocks were worth 67,154,942.300 iqd

in 2010 the value was just over 9,000,000 iqd

obama withdrew troops

isx collapsed

in august 2013 went down to 4,576,129.980
low value last year was around 2,8000,000.000 iqd

RECEIVED SUMMARY FROM WARKA & ISX MAY LAST YEAR ONLY ABOUT 50% ARE IN MY NAME THE REST STILL IN PROXY
HOPE THIS HELPS

calstar
01-13-2017, 02:12 AM
tipawin

You are on point...The Iqd was 1271 in 2007. I have been tracking this too. I remember back in 2005 the CBI came out with spreadsheet list that the IQD would come at 1.20. Maybe some of the old timers remember this. I'm watching and waiting to see what Warka will do.

What If....
01-13-2017, 06:02 PM
tipawin

You are on point...The Iqd was 1271 in 2007. I have been tracking this too. I remember back in 2005 the CBI came out with spreadsheet list that the IQD would come at 1.20. Maybe some of the old timers remember this. I'm watching and waiting to see what Warka will do.


That would be spot on with a lop.

So 1M or shares would be 1K and prices would be reduced to 'penny stocks'? or would everything pretty much stay the same but with less shares (potential splits etc.)?

Virenque
01-30-2017, 08:40 PM
What are the realistic returns of the ISX? Say you invested 5k back in 2006 and have about 5M shares of various banks (in Warka proxy).

How much could it be worth in 30 years?Well, there is no such thing as realistic returns. Investments in Iraq are very risky investments. Why are they risky? Because it is hard (or let's say practically impossible) to predict the return. Based on that...how much could it be worth in 30 years? Anything from zero to xxx times your investment. These daydreaming questions are slightly pointless. If you want predictable returns, invest in German government bonds (however, can you even be sure what will happen with Germany in next 30 years?). I wouldn't bet my life on it....

What If....
02-21-2017, 12:36 AM
Well, there is no such thing as realistic returns. Investments in Iraq are very risky investments. Why are they risky? Because it is hard (or let's say practically impossible) to predict the return. Based on that...how much could it be worth in 30 years? Anything from zero to xxx times your investment. These daydreaming questions are slightly pointless. If you want predictable returns, invest in German government bonds (however, can you even be sure what will happen with Germany in next 30 years?). I wouldn't bet my life on it....


Pointless, maybe.

But realizing there is a good chance of making average turns is far from daydreaming.

BatmaninIraq
02-21-2017, 09:50 PM
Pointless, maybe.

But realizing there is a good chance of making average turns is far from daydreaming.

NO!!! because our DREAM WILL COME TRUE.... SOON......