Turkey Stops the OIL

[onenomad]

http://www.zaman.com/?bl=economy&alt=&trh=20060122&hn=28933

opinions on how this effects our investment??

[tattatu]

http://atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/GI10Ak01.html
The timing of these events is interesting. To understand the politics, its important to follow the oil.

Sept 10 2005

"As much as the Bush administration may recoil in horror, regarding this pipeline as an oil version of the axis of evil (or an evil version of the axis of oil), negotiations are ongoing. The pipeline was seriously discussed during Iraqi prime minister Ibrahim Jaafari's visit to former president Mohammad Khatami. And it was again seriously discussed during Syrian President Bashar Assad's recent visit to the just-elected Ahmadinejad. Iran and Iraq had been negotiating for months the construction of a pipeline between Abadan and Basra, which are practically neighbors. Now they have signed an agreement, and the pipeline is a given.

Iraq will send crude from Basra to be refined in Abadan, and in exchange will get oil derivatives. Iraq's refineries remain in a disastrous state. The country has to import $300 million of oil derivatives a month. Jaafari's government had no problems agreeing to Iran investing in its petrochemical industry. Tehran insists that despite the Iraqi chaos and the avalanche of pipeline sabotage by the Sunni Arab guerrilla movement, it is fully committed to revitalizing Iraq's petrochemical industry. An oil swap deal between them is practically inevitable: this way, Iran gets Iraqi crude in Abadan and delivers the same amount to Iraq at its oil terminal on the island of Kharg."

[goldraker]

If Iraq is strapped for cash, the new Government have should of been making payments. Or structured some type of deal. This should not of happened, not to worry. This will old dead news in a couple days or weeks.

[tattatu]

However, oil flowing East is not good for the EU or the US. Turkish refineries need oil from Iraq, more than Iraq needs oil derivatives from Turkey. Would explain why Turkey continued exporting despite nonpayment. To date, the fact that Iraq has not responded to Turkey's action of stopping oil product exports is a bad sign for both Europe and the US. World oil prices are going up, since refineries in Europe need oil. While US/European relations with Iran are deteriorating; Iraq's relations have improved. Ahmedinejad solidified his political base by publicly attacking Israel and with his criticism of the US. Despite the brief engagement with Iraqi coast guard vessels, there is no sign of the Iranian Navy. While good for peace, Iran is still a dominant force in the region.

[goldraker]

Ya, until the USA moved in next door.

[tattatu]

production, they can raise oil prices by refining oil themselves or sending oil to refineries in Asia and US and Europe will be buying oil products from Asian markets. Then BWII will be on the skids, nevertheless good for the Dinar, but perhaps not so good for the US or Europe.

[tattatu]

rampaged throughout Italy for 16 years, but never defeated Rome. How can one army surround another army twice its own size -- that was the genius of Hannibal. 70,000 Romans killed in one battle -- horrific losses. US needs to win by diplomacy, not might. Iran has homefield advantage. Shiites and Kurds still resent the US for the aftermath of Kuwait -- they are distrustful of Turkey and for good reason. Shiites are the new regional power, so can the US anticipate Iranian motives or will they just react to events as they unfold.

[Javabear]

Beat them to the punch!

[Zerep11]

Beat them to the punch!

Absolutely! In A Heartbeat!!! :D

[tattatu]

so why would the Iranians not accept it, when it is likely they will have to in order to avoid a war or an attack on their nuclear facility. By refusing to agree with US, they are gaining respect from their hardline allies in the Middle East. Time is on the side of the Iranians.

So to respond to the first post, the fact that Iraq has not been making payments for the oil derivatives it imports from Turkey is serious for both US and Europe. It could be a result of new negotiations between Iran and Iraq and one would expect more oil to begin flowing into Iran, while Turkey should expect less oil from Iraq.

[tattatu]

Saudi Arabia signs five new trade agreements with China.

http://www.gulf-daily-news.com/story.asp?Article=133439&Sn=BUSI&IssueID=28310

"The visit by the Saudi king comes at a time when China, the world's second biggest oil consumer, is scouring the globe for more oil to fuel its unprecedented economic transformation.

At the same time, Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil supplier with the largest known reserves, is seeking to diversify its economy and ease its dependence on the United States, the biggest oil consumer."

This is new management with new ambitions. Watch the price of oil go up this year.

[Tyreds Tale]

The worse the news on oil supply and price, the more comfortable I am with a hedge in dinar. Let's just say I am a lot more comfortable with my dinar lately!

[apostle]

http://www.zaman.com/?bl=economy&alt=&trh=20060122&hn=28933

opinions on how this effects our investment??


Always important to stay on top of things, good find! Here's the answer to your question.

http://www.rebuild-iraq-expo.com/newsdetails05.asp?id=1876

There is wisdom in many counsels.