Please help me decide on ISX Shares

[precious_maj]

Hello,

I have around 1.9m IQD in my savings account. I would like to invest these into the ISX, I should get my documents notarized and certified by the embassy this week. However, I don't know which shares to invest in, it seems to me nobody really knows which companies are good/bad. Obviously no one is a psychic but any suggestions as to what company/companies I should invest in with reasons would be much appreciated. I don't have a lot of money invested in the savings account, should I diversify or pick a handful of companies to gamble on?

Also can someone please shed a light on:

1.) what charges are applicable when buying shares
2.) what are the minimum amount of shares that I need to buy and
3.) how much money I need to keep in account

Can I spread my 1.9m in 30 companies? Will that be a good idea?

Any suggestions/ideas will be much appreciated.


Many Thanks,
precious_maj

[Screaming Eagle]

I think I would be leary of any ISX stock purchases with Iraq in a recession, the Govt in limbo, increasing violence and many companies cited by the ISC for lack of information. There is nothing urgent about the ISX and if Iraq makes it there is plenty of time to dabble in the ISX. However if I were dead set on investing in the ISX there is only one stock Iwould consider at this time and they are not trading but should by Oct. I would put everthing on Warka as it has had phenominal growth over the last six years and that will eventualy come to light.

However, my first preference would be since you already have 1.9 million dinar in the Warka bank and since the 6 month interest payments have just been made is to buy a 10.5% CD and you will be making money the day you purchase it. Of course you have to hold it for a year. However there are no fees to purchase and your proffit would be ~199,500 dinar or ~$170.51 and that would be more than most ISX returns. Times are tough and $1600 mqy not seem like much to many people but the first rule of investing is to protect your principal. If you spread that amount around several stocks it probably that any profits this year will be eaten up with fees. Remember you have to pay to buy and then you hav to pay to sell. Hope the information helps but only you can make a decision concerning your money.

[007^]

Only 1.9 m over 30 companies will not work. I would not get into the ISX with that amount. Screaming Eagle said it well. Just keep it in a CD and you are guaranteed a profit unlike the ISX which right now is very risky. Good Luck!

[ComingtoDinar]

It may be a little early for stocks still but better too early than too late. The bank stocks are good. Warka is not trading but Credit bank is....I believe. I like Nineveh foods(don't own yet) or any of the food companies. You probably can't afford any of the hotel stocks because the minimum purchace through Warka is 200,000 shares(or maybe that is just proxi).Bagdad soft drinks(of course). There has been a lot of talk about all of this if you do a historical search on here.

coming

[lglwzrd]

keep the money and for get the isx. i sold most of my shares-those that would sell. i am only strong in warka bank.

[Kickabuck]

They aren't all trading, so this would take time. Buy 200,000 shares each of:

Bank of Baghdad
Commercial Bank
Warka bank
Credit Bank
Middle East Investment Bank
Economy Bank
United Bank

In 10 years, you'll thank me :)

[lglwzrd]

and those are all good picks!! i would add iraqi land transport, fallujah for const materials, and set something aside for the cell phone companies.

[War Eagle]

SE gave some good m advise.Also wait until AFTER the RV;there is a train of thought that the stocks on the ISX will have to "lop" their shares.I agree with this assessment.IMHO

[ComingtoDinar]

SE gave some good m advise.Also wait until AFTER the RV;there is a train of thought that the stocks on the ISX will have to "lop" their shares.I agree with this assessment.IMHO

That is one of the dumbest things I have ever read on here. "Invest in our country and we will give you way less than a Dinar is worth". It would never happen. You will get the Dinar value and the company(that you are invested in) will gain massive international buying power, so you will win more than double. You will also be gaining free shares and dividends in the meantime from a lot of these companies. It seems like some people will say anything to buy dinar from dealers instead of invest in a company. I think that having cash in hand is also very wise but am not sure how easy it will be to trade in.

Scott

[pirata]

They aren't all trading, so this would take time. Buy 200,000 shares each of:

Bank of Baghdad
Commercial Bank
Warka bank
Credit Bank
Middle East Investment Bank
Economy Bank
United Bank

In 10 years, you'll thank me :)
I agree,These are great stocks.I dont think they will take 10 years to see good profit.Once they do whatever they are going to do (RV,loop or RI) stocks are going to go way,way up.Also add Baghdad soft drinks,Modern paint,Dar salaam bank,Babylon hotel and many others.I just glad to have this oportunity once in generation and proud to be an American.:rock::rock:

[War Eagle]

I try to apply "COMMON SENSE" to this problem.Check this out; Baghdad Soft Drink has OVER 125 BILLION shares outstanding.At even a 1-1 reval,that company would have a worth of OVER 125 BILLION dollars,making it rank with the largest companies in the US. It hasn't been too long ago that this company was NOT even making a profit!!!!So,it is in MHO that they will have to lop their shares to goet the value down to a reasonable amount.Tell me,Comingto dinar,where am I going WRONG???????????????????????????

[War Eagle]

I hold almost 10 million dinars in 30 stocks----------so I hope I'm wrong,but just in case a have over 12 million in CASH in Warka!!!1

[MarkOne]

War Eagle, you are correct! Baghdad Soft Drinks is not going to suddenly become valued at BILLIONS of USD, however, this is also where the problem lies with the RV theory - the banks WOULD suddenly become worth BILLIONS of USD.

For example:
If an Iraqi bank had $5,000,000 USD (5-Million) in reserves NOW - that is 5,850,000,000 IQD (5.850-Billion). Now, based on a 1-to-1 RV (1 IQD = 1 USD) that would DEFINITELY mean that this ONE bank would SUDDENLY be worth over 5 BILLION USD (based on exchange rate) and that bank's stocks would SOAR through the roof in value.

I do realize that some now argue that a 1-to-1 RV is unrealistic and that it would probably be $0.10 to $0.50 USD = 1 IQD, but even then, EACH AND EVERY Iraqi Bank would be worth a HUGE fortune!!!

This is why (in addition to other reasons), in my opinion, the belief that there will be anything other than a LOP is implausible.

Banks (which I have all but 2) would become worth BILLIONS while other non-cash carrying/holding (or little cash holding) companies would remain at their same value.

Also, in my scenario, I ONLY used the amount of $5 million USD, and as many are aware, the amount of cash-on-hand at any given bank could be significantly more making that (or those) banks worth 10's of billions of USD.

Remember, a Dinar is a Dinar is a Dinar. If a Dinar is worth $1 USD to you and me, then it is also worth $1 USD in any Iraqi Bank. I would LOVE to see an RV based on this theory, however, this is never going to happen as Iraq cannot afford it and is not going to GIVE AWAY their wealth to, of all people, currency speculators!!!

[Kickabuck]

I think there are two mindsets here. 1) Possible RV down to a penny...dinar wins. CD's & savings accounts would be preferred to avoid the hassle and profit taking on an exchange. 2) No RV and a LOP with new currency. Stocks win, especially banks with reserves. RV Speculation will have ended and the new wave of FOREX currency speculation begins. Even will billions of shares outstanding, bank stocks who currently show a profit will explode with increased revenue from transaction fees and forward thinking possibilities involving international partnerships/buyouts.

Bet on the banks with reserves and keep a stash in savings...major players will come in. You see United ahead of the curve again making its play on Commercial...forward thinking in a closed-end market. Many more deals like that will follow when this thing open up internationally.

[opportunist]

IMAP for diversification.
A Bank, Transport, and Pharma. Round that out with a solid Insurance and Industrial and I think you have a winner.

[ComingtoDinar]

I try to apply "COMMON SENSE" to this problem.Check this out; Baghdad Soft Drink has OVER 125 BILLION shares outstanding.At even a 1-1 reval,that company would have a worth of OVER 125 BILLION dollars,making it rank with the largest companies in the US. It hasn't been too long ago that this company was NOT even making a profit!!!!So,it is in MHO that they will have to lop their shares to goet the value down to a reasonable amount.Tell me,Comingto dinar,where am I going WRONG???????????????????????????

The obvious part is the 125 Billion US dollars. The US dollar is over inflated and not really worth that much. If you go conservative ant 10% of the US value of what it will be pretty soon then you are looking at 12.5 billion which is a huge company but not unreasonable. Even if they lop the shares, it doesn't mean that you lost "value". They can lop it to 125 million and we still have our original purchaces at full Dinar amount, whatever the new rate is. We don't necessarily lose money in a stock lop......that is a US thing. This is Iraq and entirely different thing. They will want to keep their market( ISX) strong and they are still about to gain massive international buying power.
What I have been trying to say is that we won't lose value in our stocks. MarkOnes scenario is interesting as well. I am also heavy in the banks. I am not sure how it will all pan out. I also keep a lot on the side in Warka and cash on hand.
Coming

[ComingtoDinar]

I try to apply "COMMON SENSE" to this problem.Check this out; Baghdad Soft Drink has OVER 125 BILLION shares outstanding.At even a 1-1 reval,that company would have a worth of OVER 125 BILLION dollars,making it rank with the largest companies in the US. It hasn't been too long ago that this company was NOT even making a profit!!!!So,it is in MHO that they will have to lop their shares to goet the value down to a reasonable amount.Tell me,Comingto dinar,where am I going WRONG???????????????????????????

The US dollar isn't really worth that much. Even if they lop the stocks, we probably won't lose Dinar value. It wouldn't be a company lop but a rv adjustment lop of the stock which is a completely different animal and doesn't mean loss of money. They will want to keep the ISX strong and it should go to our advantage. They will gain international buying power.

coming

[War Eagle]

My example of Baghdad Soft Drink used a 1-1 formula;If you use 3-1.that would make BSD worth MORE than any American company-----AIN'T GONNA HAPPEN-the ISX will have to "LOP" the shares!!!!IMHO

[ComingtoDinar]

My example of Baghdad Soft Drink used a 1-1 formula;If you use 3-1.that would make BSD worth MORE than any American company-----AIN'T GONNA HAPPEN-the ISX will have to "LOP" the shares!!!!IMHO

Yea but our % of the ownership of the company will remain the same and it will be in Dinars.