Europe 2020 Alarm

[Borage]

Here's something interesting.

"EUROPE 2020 ALARM / Global Systemic Rupture
March 20-26, 2006:
Iran/USA - Release of global world crisis
The Laboratoire européen d’Anticipation Politique Europe 2020 (LEAP/E2020) now estimates to over 80% the probability that the week of March 20-26, 2006 will be the beginning of the most significant political crisis the world has known since the Fall of the Iron Curtain in 1989, together with an economic and financial crisis of a scope comparable with that of 1929. This last week of March 2006 will be the turning-point of a number of critical developments, resulting in an acceleration of all the factors leading to a major crisis, disregard any American or Israeli military intervention against Iran. In case such an intervention is conducted, the probability of a major crisis to start rises up to 100%, according to LEAP/E2020."
http://www.europe2020.org/en/section_global/150206.htm

[investindinar]

... This last week of March 2006 will be the turning-point of a number of critical developments, resulting in an acceleration of all the factors leading to a major crisis, disregard any American or Israeli military intervention against Iran. In case such an intervention is conducted, the probability of a major crisis to start rises up to 100%, according to LEAP/E2020." http://www.europe2020.org/en/section_global/150206.htm

I like these two statements in the article: ... The most conservative evaluations give €1 to $1,30 US Dollar by the end of 2006. But if the crisis reaches the scope anticipated by LEAP/E2020, estimates of €1 for $1,70 in 2007 are no longer unrealistic.

I was doing a little head scratching on this very same issue recently, before I read this article. In conclusion, I also saw a steady erosion in the value of the dollar in the coming years. Something along the lines of the following:

EUR:USD exchange rates

2006, 1.30:1;
2007, 1.40:1;
2008, 1.60:1;
2009, 1.80:1;
2010, 2.00:1 <--- bottom

Parallel to that development, we'll see the following on a related subject very dear and close to our hearts:

IQD:USD exchange rates

EOY 2006, 1000:1 minimum;
EOY 2007, 600:1 minimum;
EOY 2008, 300:1 minimum;
EOY 2009, 200:1 minimum; and finally,
EOY 2010, 100:1 minimum.

Well, you know what means don't you? US denominated securities are going to take it on the chin, especially fixed income securities, and IQD is going to go up gradually and make it especially attractive for EM capital looking for a place to park during the next 5 years.

Got Dinar? I do, and I'm buying more next week.

Sincerely,

investindinar

[goldraker]

I been hearing about this too! For a while now, so the stock market will probably crash! They may pull the trigger on the IQD/NID on 3/19/20/2006 to hopefully help to offset these events?

[investindinar]

I been hearing about this too! For a while now, so the stock market will probably crash! They may pull the trigger on the IQD/NID on 3/19/20/2006 to hopefully help to offset these events?

Well I don't think that the US stock market will crash like it did during March 2000, but I do think that 2006 will be a tough year for the broad market (SP500). It may be slightly negative EOY 2006. The DOW may fare a little better, but not much above 5%.

The bond market will definitely be hurt. Especially 'high yield' bonds or 'junk' bonds. Yields will increase across the board, and mortgages will definitely increase this year and next. We may see 7% 30 year mortgages on 90% financing soon, and EOY 2007 wil almost certainly see it pushing 7.5% or even 8%. US Treasury 30 year bonds will get above 5.5% this year, and over 6%, in 2007. That may be conservative.

I don't honestly think that what's going on with our USD has much to do with a pending or hypothetical revaluation of the IQD/NID. However, it may be that the CBI may manage the IQD float or flexible exchange rate against the SDR, rather than just the USD. Over a period of time, as the dollar devalues, that re-alignment may help boost the IQD significantly against the dollar, without the CBI relying excessively on managing the exchange rate overtly.

That's my two dinars worth.

Sincerely,

investindinar

[goldraker]

That sounds like a great plan!

[$ONEDAYSOON$]

Well I don't think that the US stock market will crash like it did during March 2000, but I do think that 2006 will be a tough year for the broad market (SP500). It may be slightly negative EOY 2006. The DOW may fare a little better, but not much above 5%.

The bond market will definitely be hurt. Especially 'high yield' bonds or 'junk' bonds. Yields will increase across the board, and mortgages will definitely increase this year and next. We may see 7% 30 year mortgages on 90% financing soon, and EOY 2007 wil almost certainly see it pushing 7.5% or even 8%. US Treasury 30 year bonds will get above 5.5% this year, and over 6%, in 2007. That may be conservative.

I don't honestly think that what's going on with our USD has much to do with a pending or hypothetical revaluation of the IQD/NID. However, it may be that the CBI may manage the IQD float or flexible exchange rate against the SDR, rather than just the USD. Over a period of time, as the dollar devalues, that re-alignment may help boost the IQD significantly against the dollar, without the CBI relying excessively on managing the exchange rate overtly.

That's my two dinars worth.

Sincerely,

investindinar

well said, i think i will invest a little more

[tmorr37]

GEE You all seem so happy about the destruction of the USA like you can't wait
what good will all your Dinar be outside the Free world

[goldraker]

I do not think that anyone, especially USA citizens. Want to see harsher times for Americans. But this is what were dealing with now, because of poor leadership. So all you can do, is try your best. To see into the future and plan for it. In this case, we are opting for a new and emerging economy. Kind of like hedging your bet's, a protection strategy. Because with a falling dollar which in turn. Will relate to, sky high gas prices. We all, are going to need a lot of cash just to survive! So I am praying to god, that the Iraqi dinar takes off!

[tattatu]

USD$ price for gold is moving up faster -- maybe inflation; maybe not. Who knows.... There are lots of ways to measure inflation, I'm looking at my energy bill. I won't be surprised if the government says they stopped publishing M3, because they can't afford to.

[Borage]

Well, here we are in the week of March 20-26. It's all down hill from here I guess. :happy26:

[sabrina]

hmmm, survival has always been the objective, yes or no? Some people have the ability to smell opportunity, others shy away for fear of change or fear of success, or maybe it's lack of confidence in one's self...at any rate I agree with you in many ways irt this thread...as I agree with many of the postings thus far.

[LongShot]

That's a pretty wild read, gonna read it again.