High volume at the CBI auction

[tonytz123]

Did anyone notice the highest volume ever!

Exchange Rates (http://www.cbiraq.org/cbs6.htm)

Any thoughts....

[kingdomfunding]

Me thinks a continued gradual lowering of the rate a point or two
a day....maybe increasing to a few more points per day through
year's end. What think ye?

Comments?:wave:

[duckxtales]

what does this mean if its just a high volume of trading? I'm not too familar with this trading stuff.

[buck74]

Unsure what this means, banks are buying dollars and dumping there dinars. Seems like they would not be doing this if they thought the dinar was going higher against the dollar in the near future. Hard to know, some other short tem factor might be driving this.

I also noticed there was some selling of dollars back to the CBI for dinars. This is what we want to see! It wasn't very much activity, but still any of this is a good sign imo. I don't follow these auctions very much, I wonder if this is a new trend? Anyone?

buck

[Lady D]

what does this mean if its just a high volume of trading? I'm not too familar with this trading stuff.

They are speaking of the CBI auctions that are normally held sunday-thursday in Iraq's Central Bank. The level was very high today. This of course makes sense as they have held only a few over the past few weeks. Then add speculation to the mix and we are sure to see a spike.

Someone posted a thread explaining that "they don't sell dinars" at the CBI auctions.That the auctions are actually exchanging dinars for US dollars for imports etc. I'm still not a 100% sold on that "fact", but I don't debate it as I'm not sure.
Lady D

[Lady D]

Unsure what this means, banks are buying dollars and dumping there dinars. Seems like they would not be doing this if they thought the dinar was going higher against the dollar in the near future. Hard to know, some other short tem factor might be driving this.

I also noticed there was some selling of dollars back to the CBI for dinars. This is what we want to see! It wasn't very much activity, but still any of this is a good sign imo. I don't follow these auctions very much, I wonder if this is a new trend? Anyone?

buck
I think the dinars could have been damaged, or maybe larger notes being exchanged for smaller notes. I've seen this a 2-3 times the past few months. Lady D

[ezfastquotes]

After the bank is closed for several days it then has a spike in volume that it sells. It probably is nothing.

[oldskiier]

After the bank is closed for several days it then has a spike in volume that it sells. It probably is nothing.

yeah but this is almost 30 million more than ever ??? seems kinda strange to me ....but i dont knwo either :).....:wave:

[tmorr37]

It can't be a bad thing because the dinar didn't fall but rose in value

[tmorr37]

I'd like to see the ISX results tomorrow

[KnightsCharger]

Ok everyone now is the time to call me a DA, But have I got this auction thing completely backwards?

Please let me know if I'm not understanding the fundementals

(1) No of banks 14 ok that moves daily!

(2) Auction price selling dinars / usd 1468

(3) Auction price buying dinar / usd 1466

(4) Amount sold (dinar) at auction price (usd) $109.150 mill x 1468 = 160.232.200 billion dinar sold @ auction

(5) Amount purchased at @ auction price (usd) $3.000 mill x 1466 = 4.398 billion dinar purchased @ auction

So line (4) tells me that the cbi took orders to sell iqd at 1468 (cbi's sell offer) equivalent to $109,150,000,000.00 into the reserves if the cbi. (correct or not?)

So then line (5) tells me that the cbi took orders to buy iqd at 1466 (cbi's buy offer) equivalent to $3,000,000.00 out of the cbi reserves (correct or not)

That said then the cbi increased it's reserves of USD by $106,150,000,000 for the days auction (yes/no) Meaning that there is more usd in reserve to by my iqd at a future reval!

I confused myself I think I did!:drunk:

[oldskiier]

Ok everyone now is the time to call me a DA, But have I got this auction thing completely "BASS ACKWARDS"?

Please let me know if I'm not understanding the fundementals

(1) No of banks 14 ok that moves daily!

(2) Auction price selling dinars / usd 1468

(3) Auction price buying dinar / usd 1466

(4) Amount sold (dinar) at auction price (usd) $109.150 mill x 1468 = 160.232.200 billion dinar sold @ auction

(5) Amount purchased at @ auction price (usd) $3.000 mill x 1466 = 4.398 billion dinar purchased @ auction

So line (4) tells me that the cbi took orders to sell iqd at 1468 (cbi's sell offer) equivalent to $109,150,000,000.00 into the reserves if the cbi. (correct or not?)

So then line (5) tells me that the cbi took orders to buy iqd at 1466 (cbi's buy offer) equivalent to $3,000,000.00 out of the cbi reserves (correct or not)

That said then the cbi increased it's reserves of USD by $106,150,000,000 for the days auction (yes/no) Meaning that there is more usd in reserve to by my iqd at a future reval!

I confused myself I think I did!:drunk:

I THINK THIS SHOULD BE MILLIONS NOT BILLIONS ???? IN THE CBI RESERVES

[tmorr37]

Ok everyone now is the time to call me a DA, But have I got this auction thing completely "BASS ACKWARDS"?

Please let me know if I'm not understanding the fundementals

(1) No of banks 14 ok that moves daily!

(2) Auction price selling dinars / usd 1468

(3) Auction price buying dinar / usd 1466

(4) Amount sold (dinar) at auction price (usd) $109.150 mill x 1468 = 160.232.200 billion dinar sold @ auction

(5) Amount purchased at @ auction price (usd) $3.000 mill x 1466 = 4.398 billion dinar purchased @ auction

So line (4) tells me that the cbi took orders to sell iqd at 1468 (cbi's sell offer) equivalent to $109,150,000,000.00 into the reserves if the cbi. (correct or not?)

So then line (5) tells me that the cbi took orders to buy iqd at 1466 (cbi's buy offer) equivalent to $3,000,000.00 out of the cbi reserves (correct or not)

That said then the cbi increased it's reserves of USD by $106,150,000,000 for the days auction (yes/no) Meaning that there is more usd in reserve to by my iqd at a future reval!

I confused myself I think I did!:drunk:

That seems correct to me and also more purchases for the dinar then sales, which drives up the value.

[KnightsCharger]

I THINK THIS SHOULD BE MILLIONS NOT BILLIONS ???? IN THE CBI RESERVES

Your right to many zeros there! that was just before my mind went to mushmode!:lmao:

[Stout Hearted Man]

Wasn't there a incremental RV plan considered?

NIQ = X by end of 2006
NIQ = Y by end of 2007
NIQ = Z by end of 2008

I know I read it here somewhere.

[JCB]

The high volume is probably a result of four days without trading.
The rise in the value of the dinar against the dollar may be the result of a weakening US dollar. The trend is good, and at this rate, we may make money in a few years... The US election may make a difference in the rate and I'm anxious to see check out the trend in another month. When the rate is lower than 1400:1, then we're seeing something happen.

[KnightsCharger]

The high volume is probably a result of four days without trading.
The rise in the value of the dinar against the dollar may be the result of a weakening US dollar. The trend is good, and at this rate, we may make money in a few years... The US election may make a difference in the rate and I'm anxious to see check out the trend in another month. When the rate is lower than 1400:1, then we're seeing something happen.

Respectfully JCB! your post is what muddles my thinking, Since the dinar is not currently traded outside of Iraq, It shouldn't be feeling any pressure from movement of the USD.

Today 14 Iraqi banks bought or sold Dinar using USD in there reserves in exchange for increasing or decreasing there reserves of IQD. the dinar is traded for the purpose of adjusting the reserves of iqd for each bank participating, Then the goal of the CBI is to offer the IQD to banks inside Iraq at a lower rate to intice them to buy iqd allowing the CBI to increase it's reserves of usd. The cbi needs too increase usd in reserve in order to backup the iqd when the iqd goes global.

As the cbi is not a "Bank" persay but a Goverment financial institution who's goal should be to remove as much foreign currency inside Iraq and replace that currency with the iqd, "the currency of the people" while increasing there reserves of usd, which more than likely would be the currency the iqd pegs too! Or am I over thinking this:drunk:

[Crow]

Today was a very important day for the dinar,it is the start of a CBI directed stengthening of the currency.This is the turning point of the dinar investment.I feel a slow gradual rise is the way it will go,Iraq is too unstable for a big jump in currency value.This way they don't have to worry about alot people cashing in at once,that could weaken the currency,plus foreign investors get a bargain and know the currency is on the way up and might not drop.A slow,conservative gradual increase is the safe way to go,the CBI will go the safe way.

[KnightsCharger]

Today was a very important day for the dinar,it is the start of a CBI directed stengthening of the currency.This is the turning point of the dinar investment.I feel a slow gradual rise is the way it will go,Iraq is too unstable for a big jump in currency value.This way they don't have to worry about alot people cashing in at once,that could weaken the currency,plus foreign investors get a bargain and know the currency is on the way up and might not drop.A slow,conservative gradual increase is the safe way to go,the CBI will go the safe way.

Could well be right Crow, but for me i just can't see the cbi holding back on going global for much longer, I understand the slow rise in the value for purposes of increasing usd in reserve at the cbi, but with all the international agreements/contracts, and all the requirement milestones being achieved for recognition by the IMF. I believe for the sake of the country, they gotta make bold moves sooner than a slow gradual rise!

[KnightsCharger]

two days in a row, could this be the beginning, while everyone is moping and the dems are self absourbed in there picku-ups, the behind the scene revalue would happen without to much fanfair!

Hey nothin but optomism here, The elections will just stoke the fires for economic success sooner rather than later, thank God for or founding fathers!:happy64:


Central Bank Of Iraq (http://www.cbiraq.org) sell 1466 / buy 1464

[Wildbill]

That is the lowest I have seen it in the 18 months.
I have seen it at 1478.
I would love to see it down below 1459 by the end of next week.
Let us see.

[Roninvestor]

How about this!! Auction price selling dinar / US $ 1466 -----
Auction price buying dinar / US $ 1464 as of 11-08-2006

[jpadrino]

(4) Amount sold (dinar) at auction price (usd) $109.150 mill x 1468 = 160.232.200 billion dinar sold @ auction :drunk:

I think CBI SOLD $109M dollars.

ID exchange rate mounts slightly | Iraq Updates (http://www.iraqupdates.com/p_articles.php?refid=DH-S-08-11-2006&article=11658)

[Copedawg]

I think I remember it being at 1438 for a looooooooong time. Anyone else remember that or is that a fragment of my imagination?

[JCB]

Bulls-eye!

1340/1360 buy/sell rates way back when...
The history is on the CBI site with trends.

Cheers

[dinaros]

The economic expert (http://ads.clicksor.com/serving/search4.php?q=lWL-.%FD%2B0%24%FE%242%7E%2A%7CYQT9%FA%26.+%7B&q3=%5BQTY_U0pS%5B%F9icNeS_MqW0%28%7E%FB%270%7D%25% 29%7E%FB&tl=e9f866b44e7f5871&pn=1ac00d6afd274fcd&pid=14682&sid=20205&curl=http%3A%2F%2Fus01.xmlsearch.findwhat.com%2Fbi n%2Ffindwhat.dll%3Fclickthrough%26y%3D52365%26x%3D l5j3nNCrN6gpvTskCggUt3iXPg3R3VoBB%3BH0sCjqbBrvl%3B czsCjFPsgP4OFQCgQNHNlpd52pTjIfA%3BeYGA1BuSLxAbGGbo iiWoeLdNSjPALuM%3BJ%3BNMdzI4R7431yRsH%3BnscMNOr1pO d5G628GFRvI%3BRqbSh63MLfT3P9couBGdGMT&cpx=cpc&sc=expert), Abdul xxxxxx, said that several factors helped to raise demand for the dollar; the most important of which are the suspension of the auction for more than five days because of the curfew and the holiday on Friday and Saturday, as well as the high volume of remittances after sentencing the former President, Saddam Hussein, to death due to peoples fear of deteriorating the security situation.

[lndmn_01]

The economic expert (http://ads.clicksor.com/serving/search4.php?q=lWL-.%FD%2B0%24%FE%242%7E%2A%7CYQT9%FA%26.+%7B&q3=%5BQTY_U0pS%5B%F9icNeS_MqW0%28%7E%FB%270%7D%25% 29%7E%FB&tl=e9f866b44e7f5871&pn=1ac00d6afd274fcd&pid=14682&sid=20205&curl=http%3A%2F%2Fus01.xmlsearch.findwhat.com%2Fbi n%2Ffindwhat.dll%3Fclickthrough%26y%3D52365%26x%3D l5j3nNCrN6gpvTskCggUt3iXPg3R3VoBB%3BH0sCjqbBrvl%3B czsCjFPsgP4OFQCgQNHNlpd52pTjIfA%3BeYGA1BuSLxAbGGbo iiWoeLdNSjPALuM%3BJ%3BNMdzI4R7431yRsH%3BnscMNOr1pO d5G628GFRvI%3BRqbSh63MLfT3P9couBGdGMT&cpx=cpc&sc=expert), Abdul xxxxxx, said that several factors helped to raise demand for the dollar; the most important of which are the suspension of the auction for more than five days because of the curfew and the holiday on Friday and Saturday, as well as the high volume of remittances after sentencing the former President, Saddam Hussein, to death due to peoples fear of deteriorating the security situation.

And the same thing was said yesterday.

[dinaros]

And the same thing was said yesterday.

That may be true but not everyone reads these posts everyday.Keep everyone informed.I did not see it.

[lndmn_01]

That may be true but not everyone reads these posts everyday.Keep everyone informed.I did not see it.


Didn't mean to sound rude I was just pointing out that they seem to be using the same explanation 2 days in a row.:)

[Crow]

I feel this is the real thing,they will go slow at first but don't be surprised if there is a number of 1%+ jumps in value in a day.

[Crow]

I feel the R/V will take some time,not a one shot deal.Overnight or 1 year we will still make money just slower.A large overnight R/V is I'm sorry to say is unrealistic under the present conditions in Iraq.,but you never know.

[Copedawg]

Here is a question for you.
Why would it not be a "1 shot deal"?
Lets say it "starts" at 1 cent buys 1 dinar. Would be pretty big deal! Now CNN is saying "Look they revalued the dinar and many people have bought early and is paying off for them just like in Kuwait." Then the John Q public gets the idea and many more people would buy dinar and wait for the next small jump and so on and so on. Now CBI doesnt want to raise it anymore because of they buyouts.
BUT!
If the dinar starts off big, CNN says "Well it revalued and only the ones who where in early got a piece of the pie." Now John Q public just kix himself in the buttox and says "Darn! another missed oppertunity".

Could something like this be going through the minds of the CBI?
What do you think?

[ISX_TIME]

A slow gradual increase from the present CBI's rate has always been an option in past polls and several models, No one has ever criticized the possibility of this as an option until the reality started to settle in.

[Crow]

Here is a question for you.
Why would it not be a "1 shot deal"?
Lets say it "starts" at 1 cent buys 1 dinar. Would be pretty big deal! Now CNN is saying "Look they revalued the dinar and many people have bought early and is paying off for them just like in Kuwait." Then the John Q public gets the idea and many more people would buy dinar and wait for the next small jump and so on and so on. Now CBI doesnt want to raise it anymore because of they buyouts.
BUT!
If the dinar starts off big, CNN says "Well it revalued and only the ones who where in early got a piece of the pie." Now John Q public just kix himself in the buttox and says "Darn! another missed oppertunity".

Could something like this be going through the minds of the CBI?
What do you think?
Not the CBI, they are concerned about the Iraqi economy not speculators.With the political change in the U.S help from Washington will be less and less the CBI will have support the currency more on it's own.

[Copedawg]

Not the CBI, they are concerned about the Iraqi economy not speculators.With the political change in the U.S help from Washington will be less and less the CBI will have support the currency more on it's own.

So based on what you say it should have a "1 time shot" then sustain?

[Crow]

No, a slow gradual rise in value over time,taking into account economic factors that develop during that time.A 1% increase in one day is possible,and could happen a number of times over the R/V period.

[Copedawg]

If the US help is less and less and they have to support thier own rate, wouldn't a 1 time bang be the way to go?

[Crow]

No,it's sad to say it would not look good now,the new party in power would see it as a big gift.Everything to do with Iraq will be under a microscope now.

[Copedawg]

I am not sure what you are saying. I will take a stab at it though.
I hear you saying because the Dems are the majority in the house TODAY so they will not reval high because it looks bad on the republicans?....is that what I am hearing you say?
OR
Am I way off?
I am not sure who is recieving and giving the gift and not sure if the gift is a reval or not

[Crow]

I always felt it would be a slow rise,that's how central banks work,but yeah a big R/V would not look too good,because at this point the Iraqi's could not support it without U.S help,and congress is not going support that seeing us all running to the bank to get our millions.

[Copedawg]

OK....thanks for your perspective Crow

[Crow]

Everyone you have to go with the flow.

[Crix]

I think I remember it being at 1438 for a looooooooong time. Anyone else remember that or is that a fragment of my imagination?

1463 was the rate it stuck on for a couple of months. But todays rate was the lowest since Jun'05

[Copedawg]

I wish I had controll over the valve to regulate that flow.....

[Ialdoboath]

I think the fact that the dems swept is going to put a huge fire under Malaki's butt to secure Iraq ASAP. Bush still controls the foreign policy, and the dems hae sworn not to cut the funding for the war (their only real influence on Iraq) so Bush will still bein charge. BUT... I think the dems control will/should spook the Iraqi gov. enough to spurr some real action on getting independent and stable w/o violence everyday. A reval is a great step in that direction.
Also... LOVED what Macain said on CNN today... that Malaki and the US forces have to "take out" Sadr and the militias asap.

[The Sage]

I always felt it would be a slow rise,that's how central banks work,but yeah a big R/V would not look too good,because at this point the Iraqi's could not support it without U.S help,and congress is not going support that seeing us all running to the bank to get our millions.

Crow, no disrespect intended but.... I am not sure why you think congressional has anything to do with a reval. To do that, they would have to control the IMF, World Bank, Federal Reserve, UN (ICI), WTO, etc. In fact, if you read up on this, the US congress has no control over the federal reserve and the Secretary of the Treasury is not even an officer of the US govt and has broad powers including asking the Fed reserve for swap lines for backstopping foreign currency (i.e. $48B swap line for the Mexican Peso in the Clinton years). Also, no one really knows the details of the ICI package. Frankly, I feel that there is little or no dependency on the US congress to backstop the dinar. Fron what I understand, the congress can cut funding to Iraq as far as US troop support and direct financial aid but they can't interfere with ICI, the IMF or any other organization which has a direct impact on the dinar backstop. Feel free to prove me wrong.

[KnightsCharger]

I think the fact that the dems swept is going to put a huge fire under Malaki's butt to secure Iraq ASAP. Bush still controls the foreign policy, and the dems hae sworn not to cut the funding for the war (their only real influence on Iraq) so Bush will still bein charge. BUT... I think the dems control will/should spook the Iraqi gov. enough to spurr some real action on getting independent and stable w/o violence everyday. A reval is a great step in that direction.
Also... LOVED what Macain said on CNN today... that Malaki and the US forces have to "take out" Sadr and the militias asap.

I agree with your premice that the results should motivate Malaki, but to do what? The issue for Malaki as a result is will the US stay hawkish on Iran! He's smart enough to know that the US isn't going anywhere unless he requests it, He can't move the dinar so he continues with lip service in order to reign in the malitia's and gain international support for the economy!

McCains remarks are exactly why I say the republicans needed, and still need to have there clocks cleaned top to bottom, What the hell good would it due to engage US troops in sadr city after malaki ordered the end of US checkpoints 2 weeks ago. He is playing politics with the lives of US soldiers, the opportunity to nail Al Sadr is long past.

If he even thinks about running he won't get pass the primary's, its exactly that kind of superficial political behaviour that cost them the house and probably the Senate!

[KnightsCharger]

I went to the history pages at the cbi, what I saw was very speradic in it's movement up one day down the next, movements of 1 dinar to 3-5 dinar in short spirts up and down almost daily except for a period were it parked at 1460 in 05 for a few months. Never has the volume been as high as the 2 previous days.

The recent movement seems to be more disciplined almost calculated, where previous changes were more like a dog chasing his tail (Inflation). I guess the next days and weeks will tell.

[Crow]

The Sage.I don't think the World Bank,IMF,Federal Reserve,UN etc are going to back a large overnight R/V in a unstable Iraq.Congress yes does not have control over a reval but they will be watching everything else but I could be wrong.Maybe there is something big in the works,if not it does not matter slow but sure I'm still going make money.

[The Sage]

The Sage.I don't think the World Bank,IMF,Federal Reserve,UN etc are going to back a large overnight R/V in a unstable Iraq.Congress yes does not have control over a reval but they will be watching everything else but I could be wrong.Maybe there is something big in the works,if not it does not matter slow but sure I'm still going make money.

Crow, fair enough, a slow steady rise works for me too. The problem is that if the currency is still low before it is internationally tradable, which I believe will be by the end of the year, speculators will be all over this. Can you imagine, if the dinar moves a dinar or two, consistantly, day after day after day. If you think that a lot of dinar is in speculators hands today, just wait and see what happens if any kind of trend like this starts showing up.

I really feel like Iraq does not have many options at this point. In my opinion, a sudden moderate appreciation of the dinar is in order ($0.05 to $0.35). An appreciation too small (but significant enough to have the "wow" affect on speculators) or a slow but steady appreciation will only draw more speculation.

[Sporter]

Crow, fair enough, a slow steady rise works for me too. The problem is that if the currency is still low before it is internationally tradable, which I believe will be by the end of the year, speculators will be all over this. Can you imagine, if the dinar moves a dinar or two, consistantly, day after day after day. If you think that a lot of dinar is in speculators hands today, just wait and see what happens if any kind of trend like this starts showing up.

I really feel like Iraq does not have many options at this point. In my opinion, a sudden moderate appreciation of the dinar is in order ($0.05 to $0.35). An appreciation too small (but significant enough to have the "wow" affect on speculators) or a slow but steady appreciation will only draw more speculation.

Great reply, well said!.

[Joel57]

Crow, fair enough, a slow steady rise works for me too. The problem is that if the currency is still low before it is internationally tradable, which I believe will be by the end of the year, speculators will be all over this. Can you imagine, if the dinar moves a dinar or two, consistantly, day after day after day. If you think that a lot of dinar is in speculators hands today, just wait and see what happens if any kind of trend like this starts showing up.

I really feel like Iraq does not have many options at this point. In my opinion, a sudden moderate appreciation of the dinar is in order ($0.05 to $0.35). An appreciation too small (but significant enough to have the "wow" affect on speculators) or a slow but steady appreciation will only draw more speculation.

Sage, speculation isn't the only issue. One or two dinar increases does nothing (in the near term) for purchasing power, nor does it have much impact on inflation (near term).

[Crow]

The Sage.$0.05 to $0.35 I could take that!Anything is possible.I'm just conservative.

[Pimpmaximus]

Crow, fair enough, a slow steady rise works for me too. The problem is that if the currency is still low before it is internationally tradable, which I believe will be by the end of the year, speculators will be all over this. Can you imagine, if the dinar moves a dinar or two, consistantly, day after day after day. If you think that a lot of dinar is in speculators hands today, just wait and see what happens if any kind of trend like this starts showing up.

I really feel like Iraq does not have many options at this point. In my opinion, a sudden moderate appreciation of the dinar is in order ($0.05 to $0.35). An appreciation too small (but significant enough to have the "wow" affect on speculators) or a slow but steady appreciation will only draw more speculation.


Will be?..........

Slow and steady appreciation won't necessarily draw an unwanted volume of speculation. One still cannot tell where the value will come to rest at. In order to have an objective viewpoint, one must leave the assumption of an eventual value of .33 or even 1 to 1 at the door. In the absence of such assumptions (or hopes), this leaves a potential speculator looking at the same picture we are looking at now: A slow growing currency in a country whose future is far from certain........

Personally I hope for a value near 1 to 1, but this is far off IMO. Exchange rate in and of itself is not an absolute indicator of a currencies strength. I'll point to the curent day Yen and the old Italian Lira. Both countries did just fine having exchange rates in the hundreds (Yen) or thousands (Lira) to one dollar.

Hopefully the dinar rate will more closely mirror other ME currencies before they go to thier common currency sometime in 07 or 08 as planned.

There is however one problem I keep coming back to and cannot seem to reconcile in my mind........ its kinda like that nagging feeling you get when something is amiss.......

It's the trillions of Dinar floating around. This bothers me more than anything else...........

[KnightsCharger]

Here I go again!

Todays auction

Did the cbi offer to sell (dinar) for USD @ 1465?
The cbi didn't offer to buy back any Dinar ------?
Amount of (dinar) sold at auction price ( Above) 70.180 mill usd x Auction price of 1465 dinar = 102,813,700,000.00 iqd?
Total offeres for buying (Dinar) from participating banks = 70.180 mill usd

My question is isn't the Cbi collecting usd in it's reserves, while getting more iqd in banks through out the country?

Some here have said they were selling usd, Makes no sence to me as the cbi should be removing the usd from circulation to be held in it's reserves, while getting the iqd in circulation.

Anyone!!:rolleye03

[icarusII]

Here I go again!

Todays auction

Did the cbi offer to sell (dinar) for USD @ 1465?
The cbi didn't offer to buy back any Dinar ------?
Amount of (dinar) sold at auction price ( Above) 70.180 mill usd x Auction price of 1465 dinar = 102,813,700,000.00 iqd?
Total offeres for buying (Dinar) from participating banks = 70.180 mill usd

My question is isn't the Cbi collecting usd in it's reserves, while getting more iqd in banks through out the country?

Some here have said they were selling usd, Makes no sence to me as the cbi should be removing the usd from circulation to be held in it's reserves, while getting the iqd in circulation.

Anyone!!:rolleye03

The confusion is understandable.
The GoI's only real GDP or revenue stream is their oil production being paid for in USD. The CBI takes a portion of the oil revenue (USD) and auctions this for (NID) to local licensed banks to conduct business. Until the GoI comes out from under the IMF Article XIV protection, the economic demand will be for USD.

Just my take,
Icarus

[KnightsCharger]

[quote=icarusII;244769]The confusion is understandable.
The GoI's only real GDP or revenue stream is their oil production being paid for in USD. The CBI takes a portion of the oil revenue (USD) and auctions this for (NID) to local licensed banks to conduct business. Until the GoI comes out from under the IMF Article XIV protection, the economic demand will be for USD.

Just my take,
Icarus[/quote


THAT'S IT!!!!!!!

So the cbi is removing iqd from circulation, while particpating banks are increasing the usd in there reserves. and by removeing excess iqd from circulation that benefits the consumer by helping to keep inflation in check!

Thanx! icarusII

[insuratei]

congress is not going support that seeing us all running to the bank to get our millions. WHY NOT ? knowing that the dems will rise the taxes the gov is going to make A BIG MONEY from us when we cash in.

[emile]

i don't begin to understand US politics but didn't the dems get in only because of the war so in there mind to secure the presidential election in two years they will have to show that iraq was viable and worth the risk. so now they have to force iraq to get their act together so it shows the US citizens that the dems have done more in a few months than the reps in 3 years.

or am i barking up the wrong tree.

[kingdomfunding]

I still think the fallout from a low reval is not a risk they will
take. Iraq must show the world they are at least EQUAL, if
not superior to other nations....they definately have some
bragging rights due them. I still vote for a 1:1 on the Euro.

I think they are quietly beginning to pull as much Dinar out
of circulation BEFORE the peg. This leaves LESS Dinar they
have to exchange at the new value.

We ain't even imagined the feeding frenzy to happen once
FOREX and other conservative brokers come into this.

Strap yosef in and hang on!

:happy64::lmao::happy64:

[kingdomfunding]

Rumor has it that our government ALREADY has several trillion
Dinar. Our taxes on this would be hardy a "tip".


WHY NOT ? knowing that the dems will rise the taxes the gov is going to make A BIG MONEY from us when we cash in.

[Gogovs]

Crow, no disrespect intended but.... I am not sure why you think congressional has anything to do with a reval. To do that, they would have to control the IMF, World Bank, Federal Reserve, UN (ICI), WTO, etc. In fact, if you read up on this, the US congress has no control over the federal reserve and the Secretary of the Treasury is not even an officer of the US govt and has broad powers including asking the Fed reserve for swap lines for backstopping foreign currency (i.e. $48B swap line for the Mexican Peso in the Clinton years). Also, no one really knows the details of the ICI package. Frankly, I feel that there is little or no dependency on the US congress to backstop the dinar. Fron what I understand, the congress can cut funding to Iraq as far as US troop support and direct financial aid but they can't interfere with ICI, the IMF or any other organization which has a direct impact on the dinar backstop. Feel free to prove me wrong.

Directly? No. Indirectly? Yes.

Tomorrow ... 11/10 .... all US Troops are pulled out of Iraq in a massive pull out. All US troops fly to Andrews Air force Base in Maryland, every single one of them.

Now, what do you suppose will happen in Iraq?

Iraqi's will stand and fight?

Iraqi's won't do anything as Iran's troops move across the border? Syria's troops? Hamas? Talabon? Al-Qaeda?

Do you think the Iraq Government, as it is now, will be standing on 11/30?

Given this scenario I have given above ... tell me what you think Iraq will look like on 11/30?

After that, then tell me Congress either has no effect or has effect on the RV as a result of the scenario I have given.

[kingdomfunding]

Relax guys and gals.

It's not all that simple just to pull troops out overnight.
We will see a bi-partisan strategy to bring the troops home.
This will take MONTHS, not hours.

I think it is a GOOD thing for us! No more depending on
big brother to beat up the bullies for you. I think we will
all be amazed to see how Iraq has learned to kick butt.

Their troops have PROVEN themselves to be capable fighters.
With Saddam's check in reservations to finally get his 72
virgins, the citizens of Iraq are enboldened to rat out any
strangers in their cities and villages.

Let's all chill out and enjoy the ride!

:happy64:

[Gogovs]

Relax guys and gals.

It's not all that simple just to pull troops out overnight.
We will see a bi-partisan strategy to bring the troops home.
This will take MONTHS, not hours.

I think it is a GOOD thing for us! No more depending on
big brother to beat up the bullies for you. I think we will
all be amazed to see how Iraq has learned to kick butt.

Their troops have PROVEN themselves to be capable fighters.
With Saddam's check in reservations to finally get his 72
virgins, the citizens of Iraq are enboldened to rat out any
strangers in their cities and villages.

Let's all chill out and enjoy the ride!

:happy64:

What I gave was just a scenario as an example. To say that Congress has no effect on an RV isn't true. Maybe Iraqi's will stand up ... maybe they won't. Time will tell.

[peakoil]

I still think the fallout from a low reval is not a risk they will
take. Iraq must show the world they are at least EQUAL, if
not superior to other nations....they definately have some
bragging rights due them. I still vote for a 1:1 on the Euro.

I think they are quietly beginning to pull as much Dinar out
of circulation BEFORE the peg. This leaves LESS Dinar they
have to exchange at the new value.

We ain't even imagined the feeding frenzy to happen once
FOREX and other conservative brokers come into this.

Strap yosef in and hang on!

:happy64::lmao::happy64:

I agree. There will come a point were a revalue will become more of an asset than the hording of their own Dinar.
Yes-getting as much as they can now makes sense. However a revalue will turn an even more profit along with country stability.

[The Sage]

Directly? No. Indirectly? Yes.

Tomorrow ... 11/10 .... all US Troops are pulled out of Iraq in a massive pull out. All US troops fly to Andrews Air force Base in Maryland, every single one of them.

Now, what do you suppose will happen in Iraq?

Iraqi's will stand and fight?

Iraqi's won't do anything as Iran's troops move across the border? Syria's troops? Hamas? Talabon? Al-Qaeda?

Do you think the Iraq Government, as it is now, will be standing on 11/30?

Given this scenario I have given above ... tell me what you think Iraq will look like on 11/30?

After that, then tell me Congress either has no effect or has effect on the RV as a result of the scenario I have given.


Gogovs, I agree 100%, congress can certainly cut off funding and force a withdrawal. If this happens, yes, things will get interesting.

My context of my response was in response to the following statement from Crow which was referring to the congress not financially backstopping the dinar...

Originally Posted by Crow
I always felt it would be a slow rise,that's how central banks work,but yeah a big R/V would not look too good,because at this point the Iraqi's could not support it without U.S help,and congress is not going support that seeing us all running to the bank to get our millions.

[Crow]

[quote=icarusII;244769]The confusion is understandable.
The GoI's only real GDP or revenue stream is their oil production being paid for in USD. The CBI takes a portion of the oil revenue (USD) and auctions this for (NID) to local licensed banks to conduct business. Until the GoI comes out from under the IMF Article XIV protection, the economic demand will be for USD.

Just my take,
Icarus[/quote


THAT'S IT!!!!!!!

So the cbi is removing iqd from circulation, while particpating banks are increasing the usd in there reserves. and by removeing excess iqd from circulation that benefits the consumer by helping to keep inflation in check!

Thanx! icarusII
You get it,a slow rise buying up dinar makes it possible for a higher exchange rate in the future.Dave Dinar is right there is too much dinar instead of a zero lop the CBI will buy it up supporting the currency on the way up.The people at the CBI know what they are doing.

[Scott Gonzales]

I think the CBI is testing the valuation of the Dinar with the market. If the Dinar is currently undervalued, people (in aggregate) will stop exchanging Dinars for Dollars because they will believe their Dinars are going to increase in value as the CBI pursues a continuous slow revaluation. The revalue will continue slowly until daily auction volume starts to increase again.

On the other hand, if the Dinar is correctly valued or overvalued, people will take the opportunity to get more Dollars for their Dinars and you will see CBI auction volume go up. You will know this when you see the daily exchange rate start to increase again.

If the Dinar exchange rate continues to go down slowly (increase in value or revalue) it will be more and more clear that the CBI is making a statement that they think the Dinar is currently undervalued.

For those of you who like rumors, consider that it would be a very good idea for the CBI to pursue this strategy at a time when other news suggests that things are improving in Iraq. So if the GOI has something up their sleave, now would be a good time to get things moving in the right direction.

[kingdomfunding]

moved to another location

[kingdomfunding]

Funding Cutoff Not A Problem! Do you really think Iraq will wring their hands because Congress
cuts funding? I mean, is Iraq BROKE or something???

I HOPE Congress shows their BUTT and CUTS funds. I think Iraq will
give our guys a NICE HOLIDAY BONUS AND A RAISE TO STAY ON!

I think other Arab nations will all kick into a "Pay G.I Joe" fund!

Glue your nails back on folks! The libs are about to get a lesson
in international economics!

:lmao::lmao::lmao:



Gogovs, I agree 100%, congress can certainly cut off funding and force a withdrawal. If this happens, yes, things will get interesting.

My context of my response was in response to the following statement from Crow which was referring to the congress not financially backstopping the dinar...

Originally Posted by Crow
I always felt it would be a slow rise,that's how central banks work,but yeah a big R/V would not look too good,because at this point the Iraqi's could not support it without U.S help,and congress is not going support that seeing us all running to the bank to get our millions.

[mikey7777]

If a rv was about to happen and the Iraq government knew it, why would they not try to buy out all of the dinar dealers out there, just before hand. I for one hope this will happen!

[kingdomfunding]

Well, even if there is "only" a movement of
1% a day, that 's STILL 14 or 15 points a day....
right? I'll take it!

:happy64::lmao::happy64:

[Luminous]

The confusion is understandable.
The GoI's only real GDP or revenue stream is their oil production being paid for in USD. The CBI takes a portion of the oil revenue (USD) and auctions this for (NID) to local licensed banks to conduct business. Until the GoI comes out from under the IMF Article XIV protection, the economic demand will be for USD.

Just my take,
Icarus


So reasonably speaking it's strengthening is due to an increase in value as they are taken out of circulation. Can this also mean that revaluation can take place when reserves are met? It doesn't seem like a long process. ;)

[icarusII]

So reasonably speaking it's strengthening is due to an increase in value as they are taken out of circulation. Can this also mean that revaluation can take place when reserves are met? It doesn't seem like a long process. ;)

A revaluation or a release of the currency in international markets can happen when the domestic banking systems are able to handle free or open market operations. Currently, the CBI is conducting the everyday operations. Shabibi made a statement the other day concerning the local bank systems ability to service import/export business now done through the TBI. He also mentioned a possible change in the required capital rquirements. This leads me to believe that once the banking system is able to deal with "normal" operations, the CBI will make the recommendation to the GoI to accept the Article IV sections.
To prepare for all this, I expect the CBI to change the bank capital requirements very soon and possibly raise deposit rates to recover more dinar from circulation. A steady decline in the CBI USD auctions will show me that the local banks are gearing up for a change from USD to NID.

Just my take,
Icarus

[kingdomfunding]

Hey Icarus....

Willing to risk a prediction on when and how much?
....and why?

Thanks

A revaluation or a release of the currency in international markets can happen when the domestic banking systems are able to handle free or open market operations. Currently, the CBI is conducting the everyday operations. Shabibi made a statement the other day concerning the local bank systems ability to service import/export business now done through the TBI. He also mentioned a possible change in the required capital rquirements. This leads me to believe that once the banking system is able to deal with "normal" operations, the CBI will make the recommendation to the GoI to accept the Article IV sections.
To prepare for all this, I expect the CBI to change the bank capital requirements very soon and possibly raise deposit rates to recover more dinar from circulation. A steady decline in the CBI USD auctions will show me that the local banks are gearing up for a change from USD to NID.

Just my take,
Icarus

[icarusII]

Hey Icarus....

Willing to risk a prediction on when and how much?
....and why?

Thanks

LOL.......I believe/hope/pray for the first quarter of 07. Smart people that I talk to feel that a rate of 20-30 cents USD would be reasonable on world markets given Iraq's "potential" economy.
Why? With the change in the US political front, satisfactory progress must be made for the public and many things are happening behind the scenes........(ie Iran), The Iraqis must and will make some very hard choices 9with a little Coalition prompting) in the next few months. The ICI will show us what areas and when they are trying to accomplish these things.

All the best,
Icarus

[Stout Hearted Man]

It is my opinion the Democrats will continue to support Iraq so as to take credit for the success. In two years they want to win the Presidency also, so I think they'll push Iraq forward...to both Iraq's and our benefit. ;)

Don't look for them to Cut-and-Run.

[TMills6864]

Well, even if there is "only" a movement of
1% a day, that 's STILL 14 or 15 points a day....
right? I'll take it!

:happy64::lmao::happy64:
PLEASE!!!! Explain the difference between "points" and "%" ...

[Crow]

A movement of 20 dinars I think would be the most for one day.They will lose 1 or 2 a day for while and when you get used to that then bam a 10 to 20 dinar movement.As time goes by the increase in value will add up,and with FIL set to take effect soon that is just what foreign investors want a currency the is trending up.Just my take on it.

[waiting_game]

PLEASE!!!! Explain the difference between "points" and "%" ...

A point is, in this case, 1 Dinar. Actually, in FOREX we call them PIPS.

Going from 1470 to 1465 is 5 points (or 5 pips if speaking with a forex trader) and just over a 1% move.

This is a pretty good web site to learn some basics.
Free Forex Education - BabyPips.com (http://www.babypips.com/forex-school/overview.html)