1452

[emile]

onwards and upwards.

[Teslyn]

Hrm. Was kind of expecting another stronger opener to the week.

This is sort of weak.

[Mucho Dinaro]

Hrm. Was kind of expecting another stronger opener to the week.

This is sort of weak.


True, but it still has my eyebrows raised......it's workin for me:happy64: :wave:

[Oscar]

Keep it moving CBI. :happy64:

[emile]

did you notice the fee's at the bottom. 1452+1+10 that plus one fee will have to lower if they carry on at thia rate hence the fils.

[Fisherman]

I was sort of hoping to see a bigger move myself.

Last 30 Days
3352

[yknot]

did you notice the fee's at the bottom. 1452+1+10 that plus one fee will have to lower if they carry on at thia rate hence the fils.

What does "fils" mean?

[niss0001]

onwards and upwards.


Details NotesNumber of banks12-----Auction price selling dinar / US $1454-----Auction price buying dinar / US $-----------Amount sold at auction price (US $)39.945.000-----Amount purchased at Auction price (US $) ------ Total offers for buying (US $)39.945.000-----Total offers for selling (US $)-----------

I am still seeing 1454? Where do you see 1452?

[emile]

here. Exchange Rates (http://cbiraq.org/cbs6.htm)

[oldskiier]

The 808 daily currency auction was held in the Central Bank of Iraq day Sunday 2006 / 11/ 19 so the results were as follows :
Details NotesNumber of banks12-----Auction price selling dinar / US $1452-----Auction price buying dinar / US $-----------Amount sold at auction price (US $)31.495.000-----Amount purchased at Auction price (US $) ------ Total offers for buying (US $)31.495.000-----Total offers for selling (US $)

[dinarado]

Details NotesNumber of banks12-----Auction price selling dinar / US $1454-----Auction price buying dinar / US $-----------Amount sold at auction price (US $)39.945.000-----Amount purchased at Auction price (US $) ------ Total offers for buying (US $)39.945.000-----Total offers for selling (US $)-----------

I am still seeing 1454? Where do you see 1452?


try refreshing your page it has been updated :)

[peakoil]

try refreshing your page it has been updated :)


I see 1452!!

[jsfletcher]

What does "fils" mean?


think of fils as cents, 1000 fils = 1 dinar

[RotaryRevn]

Is there a possiblility that the strengthening of the Dinar is due to a weakening of the US Dollar? I hope not but have to ask.

[cnbmis]

Fisherman beat me to the punch :), but thought I'd post my chart & data too... (it's waaaaaaaayy down at the bottom as an attachment)

My data are auction number-based, rather than date-based (even though I show the dates), so some of the data deltas are slightly amplified if there's multiple day gaps between auctions (as has happened a couple times in the last couple months).

I appreciate all the continued rational thinking and expounding from others here, and I am so happy to see some positive movement in these numbers...

Chris :)

Summary / top list -- please note, my data are not complete -- but are as qualified at the top of the following:

newest 11/19/06
continuous from 03/29/05
oldest point 07/08/04

average # banks 17.32
selling days 396
total USD sold 18,840,917,000 = 27,752,670,741,000 IQD taken in exchange
avg sell IQD/USD 1,473 min/max: 1452/1483
buying days 16
total USD bought 107,202,401 = 157,909,136,673 IQD put out in exchange
avgbuy IQD/USD 1,473 min/max: 1460/1485

rank1 110,265,000 11/13/06 2006 - Q4
rank2 109,150,000 11/07/06 2006 - Q4
rank3 97,010,000 11/08/06 2006 - Q4
rank4 82,560,000 10/30/06 2006 - Q4
rank5 81,120,000 02/02/06 2006 - Q1
rank6 80,365,000 10/31/06 2006 - Q4
rank7 79,760,000 01/05/06 2006 - Q1
rank8 78,575,000 09/13/06 2006 - Q3
rank9 75,990,000 09/17/06 2006 - Q3
rank10 75,905,000 09/04/06 2006 - Q3
rank11 74,365,000 10/08/06 2006 - Q4
rank12 74,325,000 03/05/06 2006 - Q1
rank13 74,075,000 09/11/06 2006 - Q3
rank14 73,635,000 03/12/06 2006 - Q1
rank15 72,745,000 04/11/06 2006 - Q2
rank16 72,550,000 03/26/06 2006 - Q1
rank17 71,405,000 03/02/06 2006 - Q1

rank380 28,325,000 10/13/04 2004 - Q4
rank381 27,900,000 10/11/04 2004 - Q4
rank382 26,965,000 04/12/05 2005 - Q2
rank383 26,330,000 04/04/05 2005 - Q2
rank384 25,970,000 07/24/05 2005 - Q3
rank385 25,655,000 11/02/05 2005 - Q4
rank386 24,880,000 11/12/06 2006 - Q4
rank387 23,790,000 03/30/05 2005 - Q1
rank388 22,250,000 11/08/04 2004 - Q4
rank389 21,590,000 07/17/04 2004 - Q3
rank390 19,655,000 11/11/04 2004 - Q4
rank391 16,535,000 07/08/04 2004 - Q3
rank392 15,240,000 07/24/04 2004 - Q3
rank393 15,025,000 07/02/06 2006 - Q3
rank394 14,510,000 11/13/04 2004 - Q4
rank395 13,664,000 07/20/04 2004 - Q3
rank396 12,019,000 07/21/04 2004 - Q3

[ISX_TIME]

Fisherman beat me to the punch :), but thought I'd post my chart & data too... (it's waaaaaaaayy down at the bottom as an attachment)

My data are auction number-based, rather than date-based (even though I show the dates), so some of the data deltas are slightly amplified if there's multiple day gaps between auctions (as has happened a couple times in the last couple months).

I appreciate all the continued rational thinking and expounding from others here, and I am so happy to see some positive movement in these numbers...

Chris :)

Summary / top list -- please note, my data are not complete -- but are as qualified at the top of the following:

newest 11/19/06
continuous from 03/29/05
oldest point 07/08/04

average # banks 17.32
selling days 396
total USD sold 18,840,917,000 = 27,752,670,741,000 IQD taken in exchange
avg sell IQD/USD 1,473 min/max: 1452/1483
buying days 16
total USD bought 107,202,401 = 157,909,136,673 IQD put out in exchange
avgbuy IQD/USD 1,473 min/max: 1460/1485

rank1 110,265,000 11/13/06 2006 - Q4
rank2 109,150,000 11/07/06 2006 - Q4
rank3 97,010,000 11/08/06 2006 - Q4
rank4 82,560,000 10/30/06 2006 - Q4
rank5 81,120,000 02/02/06 2006 - Q1
rank6 80,365,000 10/31/06 2006 - Q4
rank7 79,760,000 01/05/06 2006 - Q1
rank8 78,575,000 09/13/06 2006 - Q3
rank9 75,990,000 09/17/06 2006 - Q3
rank10 75,905,000 09/04/06 2006 - Q3
rank11 74,365,000 10/08/06 2006 - Q4
rank12 74,325,000 03/05/06 2006 - Q1
rank13 74,075,000 09/11/06 2006 - Q3
rank14 73,635,000 03/12/06 2006 - Q1
rank15 72,745,000 04/11/06 2006 - Q2
rank16 72,550,000 03/26/06 2006 - Q1
rank17 71,405,000 03/02/06 2006 - Q1

rank380 28,325,000 10/13/04 2004 - Q4
rank381 27,900,000 10/11/04 2004 - Q4
rank382 26,965,000 04/12/05 2005 - Q2
rank383 26,330,000 04/04/05 2005 - Q2
rank384 25,970,000 07/24/05 2005 - Q3
rank385 25,655,000 11/02/05 2005 - Q4
rank386 24,880,000 11/12/06 2006 - Q4
rank387 23,790,000 03/30/05 2005 - Q1
rank388 22,250,000 11/08/04 2004 - Q4
rank389 21,590,000 07/17/04 2004 - Q3
rank390 19,655,000 11/11/04 2004 - Q4
rank391 16,535,000 07/08/04 2004 - Q3
rank392 15,240,000 07/24/04 2004 - Q3
rank393 15,025,000 07/02/06 2006 - Q3
rank394 14,510,000 11/13/04 2004 - Q4
rank395 13,664,000 07/20/04 2004 - Q3
rank396 12,019,000 07/21/04 2004 - Q3



Ah yes a fellow number cruncher.....

What + percentage in the exchange rate do you think they will need to get the exchange rate for an acceptable inflation rate ?

[Ialdoboath]

Fisherman beat me to the punch :), but thought I'd post my chart & data too... (it's waaaaaaaayy down at the bottom as an attachment)

My data are auction number-based, rather than date-based (even though I show the dates), so some of the data deltas are slightly amplified if there's multiple day gaps between auctions (as has happened a couple times in the last couple months).

I appreciate all the continued rational thinking and expounding from others here, and I am so happy to see some positive movement in these numbers...

Chris :)

Summary / top list -- please note, my data are not complete -- but are as qualified at the top of the following:

newest 11/19/06
continuous from 03/29/05
oldest point 07/08/04

average # banks 17.32
selling days 396
total USD sold 18,840,917,000 = 27,752,670,741,000 IQD taken in exchange
avg sell IQD/USD 1,473 min/max: 1452/1483
buying days 16
total USD bought 107,202,401 = 157,909,136,673 IQD put out in exchange
avgbuy IQD/USD 1,473 min/max: 1460/1485

rank1 110,265,000 11/13/06 2006 - Q4
rank2 109,150,000 11/07/06 2006 - Q4
rank3 97,010,000 11/08/06 2006 - Q4
rank4 82,560,000 10/30/06 2006 - Q4
rank5 81,120,000 02/02/06 2006 - Q1
rank6 80,365,000 10/31/06 2006 - Q4
rank7 79,760,000 01/05/06 2006 - Q1
rank8 78,575,000 09/13/06 2006 - Q3
rank9 75,990,000 09/17/06 2006 - Q3
rank10 75,905,000 09/04/06 2006 - Q3
rank11 74,365,000 10/08/06 2006 - Q4
rank12 74,325,000 03/05/06 2006 - Q1
rank13 74,075,000 09/11/06 2006 - Q3
rank14 73,635,000 03/12/06 2006 - Q1
rank15 72,745,000 04/11/06 2006 - Q2
rank16 72,550,000 03/26/06 2006 - Q1
rank17 71,405,000 03/02/06 2006 - Q1

rank380 28,325,000 10/13/04 2004 - Q4
rank381 27,900,000 10/11/04 2004 - Q4
rank382 26,965,000 04/12/05 2005 - Q2
rank383 26,330,000 04/04/05 2005 - Q2
rank384 25,970,000 07/24/05 2005 - Q3
rank385 25,655,000 11/02/05 2005 - Q4
rank386 24,880,000 11/12/06 2006 - Q4
rank387 23,790,000 03/30/05 2005 - Q1
rank388 22,250,000 11/08/04 2004 - Q4
rank389 21,590,000 07/17/04 2004 - Q3
rank390 19,655,000 11/11/04 2004 - Q4
rank391 16,535,000 07/08/04 2004 - Q3
rank392 15,240,000 07/24/04 2004 - Q3
rank393 15,025,000 07/02/06 2006 - Q3
rank394 14,510,000 11/13/04 2004 - Q4
rank395 13,664,000 07/20/04 2004 - Q3
rank396 12,019,000 07/21/04 2004 - Q3

I work in publishing. On any given day I use Quark, PageMaker, spreadsheets, Illustrator, etc. regularly. I would never have been able to come up with a chart that quick. You guys are good.

[cnbmis]

Dinar_Time: what a good question! -- Such a seemingly simple question, but is at least part of the root consideration that has to drive this whole deal. Anyhoo, that is well beyond the scope of my knowledge... and really, without a good analog to the Iraq experience, it would take someone very well versed in both micro and macro economics, plus international economics to fathom a good guesstimation.

here's some stuff from smarter folk :) :
Purchasing Power Parity: Link Between Exchange Rates and Inflation (http://economics.about.com/od/purchasingpowerparity/a/ppp.htm)
economics.about.com (inflation rate and exchange rate -- appear to be one of the key issues that affects purchasing power parity)

Economic Issues 2--Does the Exchange Rate Regime Matter for Inflation and Growth? (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/issues2/)
IMF

Exchange rate: a key concept in Economics (http://www.economicswebinstitute.org/glossary/exchrate.htm)
A little long, but has some external links (not necessarily real fresh data) and at least provides some more narrative to consider.

How Much Is That? | EH.Net (http://eh.net/hmit/)
Just found this one, but looks like it might be kinda neat... stuff on determining the value of a dollar, inflation rates, and other miscellany.

Ialdoboath: still trying to figure out the right way to pronounce your handle here... but yes, I do put a little too much time into certain things. I have been maintaining these data for quite some time now, so a half hour here, two hours there, ends up looking like something after a while :) The more I twiddle, the more refined I hope to get. Thank you for your words -- they mean a lot coming from someone in the profession. BTW, I made some more mods to my charts -- and now can do a direct screen cap from Excel to save as JPG and paste it in here after a little resize. Manually did the overlay for the one in this message -- which ended up being a silly exercise. Live & learn...

Chris :)

[aqcroce2010]

Ah yes a fellow number cruncher.....

What + percentage in the exchange rate do you think they will need to get the exchange rate for an acceptable inflation rate ?


This is key! I'm not too good at these things, so number crunchers...what do you think??:huge:

[Ialdoboath]

Ialdoboath: still trying to figure out the right way to pronounce your handle here...
Chris :)
Pronounced EYE-AL-DOE-BOW-ATH. Not surprising no one gets it. It's the name of a 3,000 year demigod in Judaic/gnostic literature. I read a lot of 3,000 year old religious literature...

[ISX_TIME]

Pronounced EYE-AL-DOE-BOW-ATH. Not surprising no one gets it. It's the name of a 3,000 year demigod in Judaic/gnostic literature. I read a lot of 3,000 year old religious literature...

I thought it was "I'LL DO BOTH"

I didnt want to comment, but as long as you brought it up. :wave:

[Ialdoboath]

I thought it was "I'LL DO BOTH"

I didnt want to comment, but as long as you brought it up. :wave:

THAT... was funny. :huge:

(It bothers me how much I look like that emoticon...)

[ISX_TIME]

THAT... was funny. :huge:

(It bothers me how much I look like that emoticon...)

YOU ? ...Mine looks like an emoticon in a burka :lmao:

[mike032588]

I thought it was "I'LL DO BOTH"

I didnt want to comment, but as long as you brought it up. :wave:

Im with dinar time... ill do both sounds about right

[Michwlv]

IF the dinar goes below 1450 I'll start to get excited...but I understand that it has fluxated down to 1450 in the past...

once we break that barrier we are in new territory! :happy64:

[future millionaire?]

IF the dinar goes below 1450 I'll start to get excited...but I understand that it has fluxated down to 1450 in the past...

once we break that barrier we are in new territory! :happy64:

i bet it will be below 1400 bye 11/30/06.:happy64:

[tmorr37]

i bet it will be below 1400 bye 11/30/06.:happy64:

I bet it goes to 1350 and holds there until the hydrocrabon law an FIL kicks in then a major jump before opening to market.
:cool:

[cnbmis]

From the Excel spreadsheet "CBI FX auction table" downloaded 19 July 2005:


Date Settlement Price
------------- ---------------------------------------
01 Jan 2004 1,680 (highest on record)
15 Jan 2004 1,350 (lowest on record)
03 May 2004 1,450 (last time at or below this level)


So, indeed, getting to or below 1,350 would be a benchmark of sorts. I still say I'm mucho happy to see the latest movement... especially that it is constantly moving in one direction.

Ialdoboath: thanks for the guide, and for the chuckle... and um, Dinar_Time -- too funny!

Secret confesion... I was doing a variant of the "I'll do both" in my mind before the pronounciation guide :)

Chris :)

[emile]

IF the dinar goes below 1450 I'll start to get excited...but I understand that it has fluxated down to 1450 in the past...

once we break that barrier we are in new territory! :happy64:

start getting excited. 1449

[Hemimikec3]

Wow, I haven't seen it this low ever. Talk about getting excited, please keep dropping, x-mas is right around the corner. Take care all.

[Ialdoboath]

Ialdoboath: thanks for the guide, and for the chuckle... and um, Dinar_Time -- too funny!

Secret confesion... I was doing a variant of the "I'll do both" in my mind before the pronounciation guide :)

Chris :)

Reminds me of an old joke: The definition of a pessimist is someone who, when having to choose between two evils, picks both."

[R1CH1Y]

From the Excel spreadsheet "CBI FX auction table" downloaded 19 July 2005:


Date Settlement Price
------------- ---------------------------------------
01 Jan 2004 1,680 (highest on record)
15 Jan 2004 1,350 (lowest on record)
03 May 2004 1,450 (last time at or below this level)


So, indeed, getting to or below 1,350 would be a benchmark of sorts. I still say I'm mucho happy to see the latest movement... especially that it is constantly moving in one direction.

Ialdoboath: thanks for the guide, and for the chuckle... and um, Dinar_Time -- too funny!

Secret confesion... I was doing a variant of the "I'll do both" in my mind before the pronounciation guide :)

Chris :)

Chris, i took a look at this a while back and if you look closer the 14th Jan 04 the low was at 1170.00
Regards

[opportunist]

Dinar_Time: what a good question! -- Such a seemingly simple question, but is at least part of the root consideration that has to drive this whole deal. Anyhoo, that is well beyond the scope of my knowledge... and really, without a good analog to the Iraq experience, it would take someone very well versed in both micro and macro economics, plus international economics to fathom a good guesstimation.

here's some stuff from smarter folk :) :
Purchasing Power Parity: Link Between Exchange Rates and Inflation (http://economics.about.com/od/purchasingpowerparity/a/ppp.htm)
economics.about.com (inflation rate and exchange rate -- appear to be one of the key issues that affects purchasing power parity)

Economic Issues 2--Does the Exchange Rate Regime Matter for Inflation and Growth? (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/issues2/)
IMF

Exchange rate: a key concept in Economics (http://www.economicswebinstitute.org/glossary/exchrate.htm)
A little long, but has some external links (not necessarily real fresh data) and at least provides some more narrative to consider.

How Much Is That? | EH.Net (http://eh.net/hmit/)
Just found this one, but looks like it might be kinda neat... stuff on determining the value of a dollar, inflation rates, and other miscellany.

Ialdoboath: still trying to figure out the right way to pronounce your handle here... but yes, I do put a little too much time into certain things. I have been maintaining these data for quite some time now, so a half hour here, two hours there, ends up looking like something after a while :) The more I twiddle, the more refined I hope to get. Thank you for your words -- they mean a lot coming from someone in the profession. BTW, I made some more mods to my charts -- and now can do a direct screen cap from Excel to save as JPG and paste it in here after a little resize. Manually did the overlay for the one in this message -- which ended up being a silly exercise. Live & learn...

Chris :)


Good reads. Thanks for sharing
The oilman

[cnbmis]

R1CH1Y: hopefully your name will soon be even more descriptive! I will re-qualify my data -- what I was posting was the "Settlement Price" as that is what the CBI was most likely operating at. You are correct with the 1,170 as the Market Price.

Ialdoboath: what, then, would an optimistic pessimist be? Hmm... I sometimes find myself in this category. If these rates continue appreciating, I'm going to start leaning more towards the former.

Here's our Thanksgiving Day chart updates. Finally, this is worth looking at more than once a month or five :)


newest 11/23/06
continuous from 03/29/05
oldest point 07/08/04
average # banks 17.26
selling days 400
total USD sold 18,964,522,000 = 27,934,740,906,000 IQD taken in exchange
avgSell IQD/USD 1,473 min/max: 1441/1483
buying days 16
ttl USD bought 107,202,401 = 157,909,136,673 IQD put out in exchange
avgbuy IQD/USD 1,473 min/max: 1460/1485

rank1 110,265,000 11/13/06 2006 - Q4
rank2 109,150,000 11/07/06 2006 - Q4
rank3 97,010,000 11/08/06 2006 - Q4
rank4 82,560,000 10/30/06 2006 - Q4
rank5 81,120,000 02/02/06 2006 - Q1
rank6 80,365,000 10/31/06 2006 - Q4
rank7 79,760,000 01/05/06 2006 - Q1
rank8 78,575,000 09/13/06 2006 - Q3
rank9 75,990,000 09/17/06 2006 - Q3
rank10 75,905,000 09/04/06 2006 - Q3
rank11 74,365,000 10/08/06 2006 - Q4
rank12 74,325,000 03/05/06 2006 - Q1
rank13 74,075,000 09/11/06 2006 - Q3
rank14 73,635,000 03/12/06 2006 - Q1
rank15 72,745,000 04/11/06 2006 - Q2
rank16 72,550,000 03/26/06 2006 - Q1
rank17 71,405,000 03/02/06 2006 - Q1
...
rank384 26,965,000 04/12/05 2005 - Q2
rank385 26,330,000 04/04/05 2005 - Q2
rank386 25,970,000 07/24/05 2005 - Q3
rank387 25,655,000 11/02/05 2005 - Q4
rank388 24,880,000 11/12/06 2006 - Q4
rank389 23,790,000 03/30/05 2005 - Q1
rank390 22,250,000 11/08/04 2004 - Q4
rank391 21,590,000 07/17/04 2004 - Q3
rank392 19,655,000 11/11/04 2004 - Q4
rank393 16,535,000 07/08/04 2004 - Q3
rank394 15,240,000 07/24/04 2004 - Q3
rank395 15,025,000 07/02/06 2006 - Q3
rank396 14,510,000 11/13/04 2004 - Q4
rank397 13,664,000 07/20/04 2004 - Q3
rank398 12,019,000 07/21/04 2004 - Q3
rank399 11,435,000 11/22/06 2006 - Q4
rank400 5,290,000 11/23/06 2006 - Q4

/Data provided by the Central Bank of Iraq
/Analysis and format Copyright © 2006 Chris Nelson, Jordan, MN - USA. All rights reserved.


I wish a peaceful holiday to our wonderful people in the Armed Forces and other agencies, along with everyone here!

Chris :)