Debt Relief = $31 Billion

[Lux]

U.S. wins $31 billion Iraq debt write-off from Paris Club (http://www.boston.com/dailynews/326/economy/U_S_wins_31_billion_Iraq_debt_:.shtml)

This part HAS to happen:

Jouyet, Snow and Abdul-Mahdi all called for similar levels of Iraqi debt forgiveness from non-Paris Club lenders, to which Iraq currently owes another $80 billion.

This part scares me:

Under a ''comparability clause'' in the agreement, the Paris Club could theoretically suspend part of the debt reduction if it were not matched by Iraq's other major creditors led by Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.

Lets keep our fingers crossed and hope that the remaining $80 billion is handled in similar fashion.
We're not out of the woods yet, but atleast we can see the forest for the trees.

http://www.noticias.info/Asp/aspComunicados.asp?nid=37763&src=0 (There's a major conference this week in Cairo (November 22-23)

Hopefully we will hear more good news here.

[Lux]

Would definitely like to get a take from our "Econ Majors" out there!

My main question is how much debt relief do we ultimately need to see:

a. a considerable impact on the dinar value
b. a considerable increase in reconstruction

[MEALTICKET]

What impact does the CARIO CONFERNECE HAVE??? Will they write-debts????

[Dinar Eagle]

They can write off all of the debt and it still won't change a thing, until Iraq is rid of itself of foreign terrorists and Iranian/Syrian thuggery. It's that simple. No need to delve into numbers.

[bagzz]

Blaming again??? There is a political forum for that.....The US is so much more powerful than Iran...so what is the hold up??

Respectfully disagree my friend. DE makes a good point and is entitled to his opinion in the context of this discussion. If he believes (as I and a number of others also believe) that the need to remove insurgents is as important or more important than debt relief, then a dept relief thread posting is appropriate. Also, I'm not sure who you are accusing DE of blaming anyways, the insurgents and terrorists? Or is your point that the US is stronger than Iran that he's not 'blaming' America? :confused: And if it's not appropriate to blame the insurgents, who is responsable?

[bagzz]

As you notice, my note left you to think it out for yourself. So what are you disagreeing with Sir? Your words, i just asked....We are exchanging opinions. :)
I wasn't necassarily disagreeing with what you were saying as much as trying to figure out: :confused:
1) - who you thought D.E. was "blaming again" and why his post belonged in the political threads
2) - what relevance the strength of the US over Iran has to do with the topic
3) - and what's the hold up on what?

[messiah]

Disputes Cloud Meeting on Iraq's Future Please read link below:

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20041122/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iraq_conference&cid=540&ncid=1473

[bagzz]

Now I agree with you, this thread is starting to look like it belongs in the politics threads.... :D

But are you talking about the "Joe Iraqis" that left Falluja prior to the operations, or to those that were shot in the back as they tried to get out of Falluja? Because it looked to me like most of the ordinary Iraqi people didn't want the insurgents in their town. You could argue that they don't want Americans in their town either, but the streets of Falluja looked pretty lacking of "ordinary Joe Iraqi" fighting for their hometown by the time the Marines got there. There was however, plenty of evidence that "ordinary Joe Iraqi" was there before. Dead and mutilated bodies in the street left behind by the insurgents, or are you saying that it was Joe Iraqi cutting off heads, manning torture chambers, filming snuff films, mowing down civilians, and killing Iraqi soldiers in the name of their hometown:
http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/iraq/2004-11-20-iraqi-soldiers-found-dead_x.htm
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A1920-2004Nov21.html
http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGBCRAMMT1E.html
Yeah, they were used as human shields, executed if they were Iraqis thought to be against the insurgents and shot in the back if they tried to leave.

[Jerry]

=mohsaman]Answers:

1: The so-called "insurgents"
So called? "Avrage Joe anybody dont blow up their own people to make a point.
2: Asking if the problem is Iran why not then just push them out??? I haven't heard or seen an Iranian picture on the news that was in Iraq...Iranians really don't care about this war

Iranians really dont care about this war? Really? The why were the ties between Sader with Iran so strong?
According to sources in the Shiite leadership in the city of Kum, Muktada al-Sadr received guarantees (during his July 2003 visit to Iran) for financial and moral support in exchange for his recognition of the Iranian spiritual Shiite leadership as a source of Shiite religious and political authority. Sadr was purportedly also urged to accept the revolutionary Iranian Islamic doctrine and face off against the traditional Iraqi Shiite leadership headed by Ayatollah Sistani.
It is notable that Sader visited Iran in order to take part in memorials for the Imam Khomeini. The visit aroused harsh criticism both from the traditional Shiite establishment in Iraq as well as from the reformist camp in Iran. Both camps accused Sadr of being the man who incited for the murder of Ayatollah Abd al-Majid Khoi. An Iranian web site affiliated with the reformist camp in Iran headed by President Khatami also raised the alarm over Sadr’s visit to Iran and its dangerous implications on the reformist camp and on American-Iranian relations. During his visit, Sadr met with several Iranian leaders, including the spiritual leader of radical Shiites in Iraq who also serves as a Khamenei advisor, Ayatollah Muhammad Kazam Khairi. The two discussed ways to undermine the leadership of Ayatollah Sistani following the latter’s refusal to accept Iranian spiritual authority.
According to the same sources, Iran’s decision to continue supporting Muqtada Sadr was also linked to the refusal of Shiite leader Ayatollah Muhammad Baker al-Hakim (who was since murdered in the Najaf car bombing attack) to declare his loyalty (Bi’a) to Iran and willingness to cooperate with the US. A source in the Iranian Revolutionary Guard also confirmed that al-Sadr met with Brig. Gen. Kassam Salimani, commander of the al-Quds forces and the man in charge of the Revolutionary Guard’s intelligence apparatus. According to the source, this meeting points to long-term plans for cooperation between Sadr and Iranian intelligence elements .
In an interview with Kuwaiti newspaper Iran-based Iraqi Shiite cleric al-Khairi confirmed that he met with Sadr during the latter’s visit to Iran. Khairi also noted that Sadr’s expressed his “willingness to accept my authority unconditionally and follow the orders of my representative, al-Ashkuri, who was dispatched to Najaf”.

Bottom line .... Threat of Democracy

3: See answer 2....why not succeed then

now see below ...

Well...I will answer that with one sentence, or wait maybe more than that :lmao: ...my opinion..although most westerners don't like to acknowledge it is to the benefit of both Iran and Syria for Iraq to stabilize...
Under what rule? Seems like that is very importat to them.
You see whom better for the Iraqis to buy commodities like cement from during reconstruction???

Well try more westrenised countries like Kuwait (who has a bulk of the contracts and is practicaly running Iraq) Dubai Bahrain or any other of the gulf states who have good U.S. relations and are not into hardcore Islamic fundamentalism.
Will they bring cement from the US??? The shipment price is prohibitive.Ok duhhhh
So I think the so-called "insurgents" are neither Syria or Iran....They are regular joe Iraqis defending their hometown....Are all cities in Iraq filled with thugs????
If you didnt know since you been gone Iraq suffered horribly during the last 10 years due to sanctions. The only way to stay alive was to do something illeagle... yes even under Sadam. The 10 year collapse of the social system created this.
How is that possible...no my friend, have you watched movies from WWII where people of a city have underground meetings and actions for their city Or perhaps he DID HIS HOMEWORK unlike you.
....that's who the media refers to as insurgents
Ooops wrong again "Mr. Moore" you cant spin this one.

...I know you don't like this kind of opinion on this forum, but you explicitly asked for my opinion...
No one ever said that they didnt like your opinion. However I dont if they really care for uninformed, unrealistic, fiction painted as fact opinions. Who knows maybe they do...

Cheers

[tattatu]

had carried on the Civil War. Thank goodness for leaders on both sides of the battlefield -- their message if you don't know already -- was lets live in peace. Some of the worst wars have been fought in Europe -- Thirty years war, The Hundred Year War, etc.

I am trying not to be political, but there is always a slant and I cant refuse a challenge -- I learn more every day when I read about this.

It is not a secret that former officers and Baathists loyal to SH are operating from Syria -- this has been documented and publicly spoken out against by the present government. Also, it has been reported that leaders in the three southern Iraqi states are presenting a proposal to create a separate state apart from Baghdad. The majority of Iraqi oil reserves are located in this region. Would it not help Syrian and Iranian interests to divide a country as powerful as Iraq once was into three smaller states? Iraq stands better united -- to defend its borders and a strong currency for a region the size of California with plenty of water. Iraq has the resources to rebuild itself, what Iraq needs is capital and freedom from terror.

[JohnM.]

Jerry...As I mentioned before...I would love to converse with you...but I can only do that when you stop the critisicm...Mr.Moore??????????

Love to hear from you when you tone down a little :huge:

In essence what you are saying is...unless you speak the "Queens English", you're guess as to what will happen in the world 5 minutes from now could in no way be correct? That's just my opinion though. "The Redcoats are coming, the Redcoats are coming" :lmao:

[JohnM.]

Jerry...As I mentioned before...I would love to converse with you...but I can only do that when you stop the critisicm...Mr.Moore??????????

Love to hear from you when you tone down a little :huge:

Don't be offended ol' chap...I don't think he meant ROGER MOORE! :lmao:

[Lux]

I started this thread with questions regarding the "economic" opportunities that may avail because of debt relief.

I think everyone in this entire world understands that the socio-political strife in this country and it's impact on the dinar. In fact, there's about 999 threads on this forum alone dealing with it.

I as much as anyone knows that politics plays a major role in all of this, but the next time you feel the need to hijack a thread and turn it into a "your point is moot" debate because "insugents rule the world", then please start your own thread - whether it be in this forum or the political forum provided.

[Lux]

What impact does the CARIO CONFERNECE HAVE??? Will they write-debts????

Each of the other countries would independently make their own decision on "if" and "how much" they will write off. This conference will open the dialogue among Arab nations as well as provide a forum for countries like the US to influence their decisions.

Bulgaria has already come out and stated that they will continue to pursue payment of the $1.7 billion they are owed.

http://www.forbes.com/business/manufacturing/feeds/ap/2004/11/22/ap1669191.html

[Lux]

On the insurgency
I too believe that "not much matters" if the insurgents continue to create havoc. Our success depends on many factors - each and everyone of those factors ALONE can foil our investments. The "rise of the dinar" is a battle on many fronts.

On this forum
I don't own this this thread nor this forum, nor will I attempt to control any part of it. I didn't mean to be disrespectful to anyone here and I'm not looking to make enemies. My apologies if I've offended anyone. If everyone wants to focus on the insurgency, then please do so. I will continue on with debt talk on other threads.

[Doodle]

Iraqi National Assembly rejects Paris Club.....

http://www.jubileeiraq.org/blog/

[Jerry]

I seen it comming. Right On IRAQ! Im totally for them not being heald accountable for Mr. Insanes spending sprees.

[rooken1961]

Iraqi National Assembly rejects Paris Club.....

http://www.jubileeiraq.org/blog/



I like this go get from Sadam it isn't their dept :lmao:

[THANOS]

:D how did we do at the paris club meeting and waht elses is going on that is time sensitive and important

[Dinar Eagle]

Ok, I see there was some confusion. Debt relief will not solve what ails Iraq. What will help Iraq even more so than debt relief is huge inflows of capital. Now, without safety and security, markets just do not function, hence, no one in their right mind would make a business decision to enter Iraq until it is clear that profits can be made and SAFELY. So, debt relief really is a moot point at this juncture, and I think we know the solution to safety in Iraq. Will debt relief help...of course, but it is nowhere near at the top of the list of what is needed for a healthy and functional Iraqi economy. This is not a POLITICAL statement. It's a rational market fact.

Now, someone asked why don't we go after Iran? Two reasons. One, we are too PC. Two, their will be a coup by the young generation over the mullahs soon.

[Lux]

Ok, I see there was some confusion. Debt relief will not solve what ails Iraq. What will help Iraq even more so than debt relief is huge inflows of capital. Now, without safety and security, markets just do not function, hence, no one in their right mind would make a business decision to enter Iraq until it is clear that profits can be made and SAFELY. So, debt relief really is a moot point at this juncture, and I think we know the solution to safety in Iraq. Will debt relief help...of course, but it is nowhere near at the top of the list of what is needed for a healthy and functional Iraqi economy. This is not a POLITICAL statement. It's a rational market fact.


There is no silver bullet for Iraq and no one is stating that debt relief will solve what ails Iraq. Like I said, there are MANY things that need to go right in Iraq before we are to see an appreciable performance by the dinar.

Without debt relief you can totally forget about "huge inflows of capital". Who in their right mind is going to invest in Iraq when they can't even pay the "interest" on their debt. The dinar wouldn't be worth the paper it's printed on for a very long time if the debt isn't drastically reduced. And isn't that the purpose of our conversation.

In your estimation, we simply shouldn't discuss all the other issues tied to the "success of the dinar" until the insurgents are all 6 feet under.

They can write off all of the debt and it still won't change a thing, until Iraq is rid of itself of foreign terrorists and Iranian/Syrian thuggery. It's that simple. No need to delve into numbers.

Please let us know when the war is over so we can go back to talking economics.

[Dinar Eagle]

Without debt relief you can totally forget about "huge inflows of capital".


Explain the US economy, sir? Several trillion in debt. What sustains and props us up? Why...its capital inflows!

[Lux]

Explain the US economy, sir? Several trillion in debt. What sustains and props us up? Why...its capital inflows!

Your circle logic amazes me.

Care to explain Venezuela?

[Lux]

Explain the US economy, sir? Several trillion in debt. What sustains and props us up? Why...its capital inflows!

And in case you haven't realized, our dollar is REALLY sinking because of it.

[Dinar Eagle]

Your circle logic amazes me.

Care to explain Venezuela?


Actually, your naivety amazes me, sir. Your assumption on debt relief impacting the dinar, and hence the economy of Iraq is overestimated. You are putting the cart before the horse.

For a free market to function, their must be laws, security in those laws, a level playing field (or close to level) and willing participants in the market place (domestic and international). A fully functioning economy can take on debt (leverage), so long as there are players willing to invest in the economy (Capital investment, inflows and outflows.) The realization of profits in the economy has to come to fruition for those involved. If it does not, there will be no investors, the economy will stagnate and shrivel up. Iraq needs the ingredients for a fully functioning economy first and foremost (we know how to do that). What good is debt relief if it does not have the ingredients, sir?

You asked for an opinion in your first question and you got it. You asked it from an econ major....and you got it. I am done with you. You bore me.

As for Venezuela, do you even know what Chavez is doing down there? Can you say communism? Go read for yourself. Its all out there. And in case you don't know, a communist state is a command and control economy.

[Dinar Eagle]

And in case you haven't realized, our dollar is REALLY sinking because of it.


ANd if you know why, its because there are less and less inflows to the US. Watch what happens when China pulls the rug out from under us. Their purchase of debt (INFLOWS OF CAPITAL) is what is propping us up.


SO it appears that an inflow of capital is what Iraq needs to increase the dinar, yes?

[Lux]

Actually, your naivety amazes me, sir. Your assumption on debt relief impacting the dinar, and hence the economy of Iraq is overestimated. You are putting the cart before the horse.... blah blah blah

No, I am asking questions regarding debt relief, not insurgency, not security, not capital in flows. I seem to believe that all the attention given to debt relief by the little people (like the Paris Club) just might have a teeny weenie little impact on the dinar. Maybe nudge it up .00000000000000001.

If you think it's irrelevant, then you've been understood. I'm sure there's an insurgency thread somewhere that you can post you insurgent opinions on.

If your purpose is to discourage others from asking questions, then you are doing ONE HELLUVA JOB!