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Kickabuck
05-05-2013, 06:44 AM
Did everybody just give up? I see sound financials by many of the banks listed on the ISX, but it's seldom spoken here. Low PE's and high growth rates are common figures, but where is the news published...again, not here.

I think Union Banks 3322% year over year profit increase is worth noting. "If" they can continue to pull off Q1 numbers thru the end of the year, they would only stand 2nd to North Banks 2012 numbers. For the year, they are kicking Bank of Baghdad's ass...who's twice the price, yet BOB has increased Q1 2013 profits by 60% themselves. Does anybody care? Are investors shut out of this market? Does Maliki scare everyone away?

I have questions that need to be answered!!! HELLO???

24mm exposed grid
05-05-2013, 08:49 AM
Did everybody just give up? I see sound financials by many of the banks listed on the ISX, but it's seldom spoken here. Low PE's and high growth rates are common figures, but where is the news published...again, not here.

I think Union Banks 3322% year over year profit increase is worth noting. "If" they can continue to pull off Q1 numbers thru the end of the year, they would only stand 2nd to North Banks 2012 numbers. For the year, they are kicking Bank of Baghdad's ass...who's twice the price, yet BOB has increased Q1 2013 profits by 60% themselves. Does anybody care? Are investors shut out of this market? Does Maliki scare everyone away?

I have questions that need to be answered!!! HELLO???

We have seen superb numbers from many of the banks over the past 18 months - 2 years. The markets response to these figures - nothing ! New money needs to come into the market to fuel share prices, otherwise it is simply Joe Iraqi selling to Jim Iraqi and then buying back again. I think the situation regarding the position of Maliki and the Central Bank in particular with the real possibility of devaluation in the dinar is a massive obstacle to gaining further foreign investment that will push stock prices higher. The situation with Warka is a big reason for general lack of interest on this board in any of this. If you consider a market that has a large percentage of foreign investors left high, dry, helpless and probably sunk, who can be bothered to care if the banks are producing stunning numbers particularly when the general markets response to these numbers is diddly squat ? Sorry - I don't seem to be able to produce new paragraphs for some reason !!!!!

chakkarchee
05-05-2013, 10:14 AM
What is needed first is custodial foreign bank to start anything. In Iraqi electrol I see too many cheif and no indian, you will not see much happening in hung parliment whose members are only seeking to deepen their pockets, and therefore I do not mind Malaki who still has some electorl intact, otherwise it is all shatter pieces of Iraqi democracy and our money is locked there. For example bad things are happening to Sunni's yes, but than take your pick between Al-Quaida and Sadam's Bathist. So without Malaki i do not see a second leader running the show at this time in Iraq so i am putting my bets on him for now for my money's sake.

opportunist
05-05-2013, 07:50 PM
Kick
Do not fret. Those numbers will eventually lead to the mother of all investment returns. Its coming. The world will be stepping all over itself to get in when the doors open.
Op.

seadesk
05-05-2013, 08:05 PM
Kick
Do not fret. Those numbers will eventually lead to the mother of all investment returns. Its coming. The world will be stepping all over itself to get in when the doors open.
Op.

Opportunist:

Good attitude. I hope you are right. We investors are long overdue for some sunshine!

We might just as well stay positive to the extent possible; in fact, maybe that's all we can do.

Kickabuck
05-06-2013, 02:38 AM
I still have a very hard time seeing a PE ratio of 2.5 with a Price/Book Value of 1.1 That's Union.

I also have a very hard time seeing a PE ratio of 2.6 with a Price/Book Value of .9 That's Gulf.

In the real business world, these numbers don't exist. Is the CBI playing favorites and it's really a shell game in terms of profits? Both of the above had better than a 100% increase in income and profit from 2011 to 2012. Q1 2013 appears to show the same pattern.

Both banks are below the 250B required by the CBI in 2013...is that the catch here? Or, is that the reason for the growth? Could the CBI be growing these banks intentionally?

explorerhot
05-06-2013, 05:41 AM
I have a Warka acct. Stock in different banks in ISX, Can't afford to invest anymore in ISX or Dinar. I'm in... just waiting.. Can't afford $10,000 to open a brokerage account with another company. So if the ISX ever takes off Great!... but it's been 7 years, the excitement is gone. Lets hope this was the right thing to have invested in.

Will-it-happen?
05-06-2013, 02:04 PM
I have a Warka acct. Stock in different banks in ISX, Can't afford to invest anymore in ISX or Dinar. I'm in... just waiting.. Can't afford $10,000 to open a brokerage account with another company. So if the ISX ever takes off Great!... but it's been 7 years, the excitement is gone. Lets hope this was the right thing to have invested in.

we are all in the same boat

wonder what happens , if the ISX takes off, but warka remains insolvent ?

how do warka account holders get their money back ?

Kickabuck
05-06-2013, 03:39 PM
And today Kurdistan Bank's 2013 Q1 numbers of 25B revenue & 22B profit clearly show they are positioned to leap from 4th to 1st in the private banking sector. North's Banks leading 2012 numbers were 88B income, and 68B profit, quite a battle taking place. Again, we see triple digit growth rates, and this news had zero effect on the stock price, it didn't change. Also note that Kurdistan Bank already meets the CBI requirements, they sit at 300B capital.

If you liked North Banks free 26% this year, just wait to see what Kurdistan does!

mike032588
05-06-2013, 03:48 PM
we are all in the same boat

wonder what happens , if the ISX takes off, but warka remains insolvent ?

how do warka account holders get their money back ?


well said... not to mention i have 35 mmillion shares of warka bank ahhaha

chakkarchee
05-06-2013, 06:11 PM
It will end with lawyers winning case for us and giving us back 10 % of our investment and lawyers getting the rest in next 20 years and with no intrest or inflation .

dinar_dude
05-06-2013, 08:06 PM
I'm loaded in and will stay this way until this investment pops, or drowns.

Kickabuck
05-09-2013, 04:24 AM
Finally, just what I asked for...details.

...Perhaps the negative correlation seen in the market is associated with investor psychology which focuses on nominal share-price rather than P/E multiples. Hence investors view a bank trading at 2 dinars to be more expensive than a bank trading at 1 dinar irrespective of P/E multiple of the two banks. Therefore, banks that earn high returns do not necessarily see their share price move up; this in turn depresses the P/E multiple for those companies...

The Sansar Capital article, which the above statement came from, is nice to see. Quite funny that this came out as I was calling for answers to this backward market!

opportunist
05-10-2013, 03:06 AM
Kick,
Kind of like our market. From a PE standpoint the market sits near a 16 multiple the same prior to 98, but yet we have a 35% margin expansion being reported. Does the market have more room to run? Other factors show an overbought situation.
This I know. If you look at Fundamentals vs technicals I would always lean towards fundamentals. Always buy earnings. As long as the banks are performing ie. earnings and capital its a win win. The ISX does not make sense but the reality is the fundamentals along with earnings will eventually over ride any negative sentiment. Markets chase earnings. What will finally be the catalyst to wake up the market or open the market? This is a chapter that will soon be written. Op.