Towards A Common Goal 8 2005

[Jerry]

Toward a common agenda for the Gulf region

reform process must continue to be an internal initiative

The need for genuine political reform is central to any future agenda for the Gulf region. Much has been accomplished over the past decade, first and foremost the fact that broadening political participation and expanding accountability are now part of the mainstream debate. The ball is rolling, but for it to maintain its momentum and establish strong roots of legitimacy, the process of reform needs to continue to be based on internal rather than external initiatives. Nothing will harm the reform process more than if it is perceived as consisting of external interventions driven by a foreign agenda. Such a perception will result in rejection by both governments and the general population. Political reform is an internal matter in which external factors retain a supportive function at best. Moreover, there is no one-size-fits-all approach that can accommodate the specific conditions of each individual country. The present situation is complicated by the fact that the U.S. initiative for reform and democratization in the Arab world lacks credibility. Numerous reasons are cited for this, including the past approach by Washington which favored stability over reform, the disproportionate role played by small influential circles within U.S. polity, over-reliance on connections to Gulf leaderships at the expense of relations with the ordinary people and the consistent duplicity toward Arab and Muslim issues, notably the Arab-Israeli conflict of which the Palestinian question remains the core. More effective engagement in these issues will go a long way toward restoring a necessary level of credibility. At the same time, such engagement needs to be channeled into areas where its impact can be considered a genuine contribution to the overall goal of developing responsive and responsible societies.

The Gulf region needs the United States, but in an equal partnership. We therefore call on the administration to galvanize its efforts toward encouraging the emergence of civil society, advocating the activities of political and social reformists, and combating political and economic corruption. Terrorism is a threat to us all as it encourages instability and disrupts the peaceful interaction among nations and peoples. During the past few years, government institutions as well as the innocent citizen of the region were the main victim of terrorist activities. From that perspective, we denounce any act of terror. At the same time, the phenomenon of terrorism cannot be separated from the social and political context in which it exists and which continues to support it. Conducting an effective "war on terror" will not be possible unless one reaches a consensus on how to define terrorism and one begins to differentiate between terrorism and legitimate resistance. This, in turn, requires that one considers the deep roots of terrorism and works on solving the causes rather than only dealing with the outcomes. Security measures alone can secure no more than a short-lived victory.
The Gulf states remain ready to engage with the United States into a broad-based strategy to combat terrorism. Moreover, the GCC countries should be encouraged to put forward a combined strategy to cooperate with counterterrorism initiatives.

This, however, has to be based on the principles of respect for the regional state's sovereignty and nonintervention in internal affairs and not be exploited to destabilize the internal tranquility or undermine the social harmony in these countries.

If the internal situation in Iraq continues on its present path, where instability and lawlessness is the dominate factor, the consequences for the entire region will be devastating. Similarly, imposing short-term solutions to the present challenges will not resolve the inherent contradictions in place. Building a democratic and legitimate regime in Iraq is a long-term process even if security and stability are restored to this war-battered country. It must be recognized that the pillars on which real democratization in Iraq must be based are extremely weak, if not totally absent. Overcoming this formidable obstacle requires that Iraq should not be abandoned - but at the same time it is imperative that Iraq's future should not be determined by a single interventionist power.

[Jerry]

We at the Gulf Research Center believe that the intentions of the U.S. administration in Iraq must be clearly announced and limited by a scheduled timeframe. The U.S. should also refocus part of its agenda on a concerted reconstruction effort under which Iraqi society can be rebuilt. The model for post-invasion Iraq should be the Marshall Plan for post-war Europe that was instrumental in promoting a stable and democratic Western Europe. Such a strategy - designed and implemented with the GCC countries in cooperation with regional and international parties - is essential to ensure good and workable governance in Iraq and one that does not exclude any sectarian or ethnic minority or deprives them from sharing and benefiting from the possible outcomes.

The Gulf Research Center also advocates the participation of security forces from GCC countries in Iraq in the context of an Arab peacekeeping force. The similarity of these forces in religious and cultural aspects would reduce the Iraqis' sensitivity to a direct foreign presence and thus accelerate the pace of Iraqi national consensus-building.
The GRC strongly believes that a peaceful Gulf cannot become a reality without involving Iran fully in any security arrangements for the region. Iran's relentless effort to build up its conventional and nonconventional military arsenal can be partly explained by its own fear of encirclement and security perceptions. Yet, the basic principle for any efforts aim at establishing stability in the Gulf must be inclusion not exclusion.

Many Iranian concerns and fears can be eased and resolved through a process of peaceful compromise and bargaining. To convince Iran that its own future lies in a peaceful Gulf, the role of the United States and the European Union should concentrate on confidence-building measures that we believe will ultimately be conducive to declaring the Gulf region a weapons-of-mass-destruction-free zone and thereby initiate a process of sustainable development. The rationale behind this project is that there is a direct correlation between the establishment of peace and stability in the region and the establishment of a weapons-of-mass-destruction-free zone which will have a major positive impact on fixing the security dilemma in the region and as an effective confidence-building instrument. The GRC also advocates the functional approach that strengthens economic and cultural ties across the Gulf to create solid mutual governmental and non-governmental interests, which in turn will constitute an absorbing cushion for any political and military dispute in the future. It should be clear that the GCC states share many concerns with the U.S. regarding the future course of Iranian politics and policies. Yet, there are more dangers than benefits to be reaped by following a policy toward the Islamic Republic that consists primarily of sticks and offers few carrots. The GRC calls on the U.S. to adopt a differentiated approach toward Iran, to work closely with the EU to develop a common approach and to join the GCC in promoting regional efforts for peace and security in the Gulf.

Crude oil prices have soared to record highs, underscoring the strength of global crude oil markets. Recent developments do not only represent a temporary price spike caused by short-term supply disruptions. It is rather a fundamental change in both supply and demand patterns, with increasing competition for oil exports from Asia and tight production capacities of OPEC producers. At the same time, the current increase is in part due to the devaluation in the U.S. dollar and the global inflation rate since the first oil boom in the 1970's. As such, the current situation must be placed in perspective.

In the meantime, the short-term benefits to the GCC countries are obvious: GCC members have been balancing their budgets, building foreign reserves, paying down debts and increasing both private and government investment. This is a development that is good for the region as a whole as economic prosperity and growth directly translate into political stability and a lessening of regional tensions.

However, there is also a negative aspect to the high oil prices in that they enable GCC leaders to stall on long-awaited economic reform programs that are essential to ensuring greater future economic stability and sustainable growth independent of volatile oil prices. The GRC views oil affairs as two sides of the same coin wherein producers and consumers work together toward a fair and reasonable mechanism for production, marketing, pricing and protection of the global environment.

As much as the GCC states are still relatively dependent on oil revenues, they are also dependent on the U.S. economy to drive future economic growth and oil demand.

At the same time, the Gulf states - who collectively hold up to 65 percent of global proven oil reserves - are of great strategic importance for U.S. energy security.

So far, the relationship between the U.S. and the Gulf states has been a positive one and we urge both sides to continue this mutually beneficial dialogue in order to ensure that the interests of both can be met. Without a concerted move toward enacting the measures outlined above, it is highly probable that the socio-economic and political challenges faced by the Gulf region will deteriorate into a suffocating crisis. As conditions stand today, there is a pressing need to accelerate effectively the pace of reform in the Gulf to strengthen, rapprochement between the Gulf littoral countries and to stabilize these societies in a bid to avoid the undesirable ramifications that could arise out of the prevailing problems. Regional and international advocates of the above approaches are united in their principled recognition of the seriousness of the situation and of the necessity for appropriate policies. Taking the suggested actions will no doubt foster the regimes' legitimacy and help cement political and social stability. This in turn will reflect positively on the international community. Most importantly, the situation in the Gulf, now as well as in the future, demands a dialogue on appropriate policies to be agreed between the United States and the Gulf states as full partners in deciding the fate of one of the world's most vital regions.
Dead link... copied off of MS word.