Watch the Chinese Yuan

[Goalie Interference]

The peg between China's yuan currency and the U.S. dollar is taking a toll on the Chinese economy and must be eased "sooner rather than later," Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said Thursday.

Greenspan says China must eliminate peg to U.S. dollar (http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?guid=%7BD5B70A98-7D4C-4512-B7F7-7A7E29DB649B%7D&siteid=myyahoo&dist=myyahoo)

[sprtbuf]

This will be a currency who will get a person a 25% ROI who hits it just right...keep an eye on this for the rest of the year...

[Runamuck]

I saw another article on this 2 days ago... Going to watch it like a hawk..

[Runamuck]

http://www.hsbc.com/hsbc/news_room;brochid=T5DNDDRFJESPRQFIYNLCGWQ?cp=/public/groupsite/news_room/2005_archive/hsbc_launches_local_currency_services_in_chinese_c apital.jhtml&isPc=true

[Runamuck]

http://www.chinaeconomicreview.com/subscriber/articledetail.php?id=430

[Goalie Interference]

One of the articles you referenced (http://www.chinaeconomicreview.com/subscriber/articledetail.php?id=430) made the following assertion which, if true, should be considered when thinking about the NID.

Exchange rates are based theoretically on the balance of trade....
I'm a believer of this. If there isn't substantial trade, resulting in an ever increasing Iraqi GDP, there's no reason to expect the NID will be worth much more than it is today.

[Runamuck]

They have tns of oil to export very fertile farming and natural gas there exports will be huge raising there currency. Its when you import a ton more then you export I think hurts you more. The US imports a TON and exports are getting lower and lower thanks to the EU. :mad:

[Goalie Interference]

Yep, those are the keys. Squash the terrorists, decrease the debt to a manageable level, and increase export capacity. Then our investment will show its' value.

[Michael44]

Treasury's Snow Says China Must Adopt Flexible Exchange Rate Now (http://www.allamericanpatriots.com/m-news+article+storyid-9538.html)


Clicking on this site will make any conservative American somewhat angry with the Left Wing sappy advertisments and also,

it contains spyware advertisments that are hard to get out of...pop ups etc.

So be careful if you want to click on this link.

No offense to the poster of this link.

[Runamuck]

Govt needs to pass some damn laws on spyware its just as bad as viruses they need to get a clue..



Investing in china seems a little trickier but we may be small enough to fly under there radar with the amount we would purchase or the amount I would purchase anyways..

Maybe I should open an HSBC account now...

[sugardave]

Come on...you think that if the gov-mint passes a law then all this spyware crap will just go away?

[sogrgirl]

EverBank is offering an way to invest in the Yuan. Looks interesting. Not sure if I am up for another High Risk Investment, not just yet anyway...

[Dinaress]

EverBank is offering an way to invest in the Yuan. Looks interesting. Not sure if I am up for another High Risk Investment, not just yet anyway...
Ahhh yes Mr. Trotter ;)

[Goalie Interference]

Today's news suggests.......possible re-valuation of Chinese Yuan within a week (http://www.forexrate.co.uk/news/index.php?itemid=620)

[neptune]

Today's news suggests.......possible re-valuation of Chinese Yuan within a week (http://www.forexrate.co.uk/news/index.php?itemid=620)
(Except on the dinar, of course ;) )
But if I bought $1000.00 worth, what kinda profit are we talking about?
Enlighten me, please~ :huge:

[Goalie Interference]

In the body of the article, the following statement is made. "The dollar
could weaken to around 7.80 against the yuan".

Current rate is $1,000 USD = 8286 Yuan
Possible rate is $1,000 USD = 7800 Yuan

A $1,000 investment would result in a $1062 return upon re-valuation, before any fees. Nothing huge, but 6.2% is better than you'll get at any bank.

[neptune]

In the body of the article, the following statement is made. "The dollar
could weaken to around 7.80 against the yuan".

Current rate is $1,000 USD = 8286 Yuan
Possible rate is $1,000 USD = 7800 Yuan

A $1,000 investment would result in a $1062 return upon re-valuation, before any fees. Nothing huge, but 6.2% is better than you'll get at any bank.
But I think I'll just stick with the dinar for now! :drunk:

[DJ Dinar Slinga]

this is a good read on what's going on with the Yuan revaluation. Some speculate the peg could be changed in the 40-50% range, implying the same ROI.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1402503/posts

"Speculation in the offshore market in the form of non-deliverable forward (NDF) contracts in the renminbi is pricing in a revaluation soon, with the discount on the one-month contract implying a revaluation of around 1% and that on the 12-month contract suggesting a 5.7% move. But as the Chinese authorities have said, the greater the speculation on the currency, the less inclined they are to alter the peg. So a revaluation is most likely when the markets least expect it.

Forecasting a date for the revaluation therefore seems an exercise in futility, but this hasn’t stopped some highlighting May 18th—when China will launch mutual settlement of trading for eight foreign currencies (as opposed to four currently), as a possible day for the change to be made. This seems unlikely for the reasons stated above, and also because the government will want to avoid being seen as capitulating to external pressure, whether from currency speculators or the US. Indeed, because any shift in the foreign exchange rate will, when it comes, be far smaller than the US is hoping for, foreign political pressure on China is likely to continue even after a foreign exchange regime change. And it is likely to be counterproductive with regard to any future liberalisation of the renminbi. As the deputy governor of the PBC, Wu Xiaoling, said recently: "If the United States had not created this environment, the reforms would probably have happened more quickly than people predicted.""

[nyinvest]

This could be a bad move in general if the banks don't handle it right. China is a huge purchaser of US treasuries. Should they slow in their purchasing, it will throw a wobble into our currency. If demand for the notes drops, the price will drop and yields spike upward. Interest rates rise, other things go South. It's a bit more complicated than just decoupling the curriencies. Put a move in by an aggressive 3rd central bank at the same time and it could get ugly fast.

[YeOMan]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20050517/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/us_china_currency_6

[Dinar007]

In the book "Communist Manifesto" one of the goals in communism is to
"debauch" or "make less" all other currencies. They could possibly be
gearing up to become a world reserve currency.
If you notice, the chinese yuan is the "only" currency that does not
fluctuate from day to day. It remains at a constant value.
What other asset does not fluctuate if its not manipulated?
Gold and silver.
They have something up their sleeves. You better watch them. :shhh:
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Think "outside" the little box they put you in. Only then will you survive.
That's what its all about.

[DJ Dinar Slinga]

Dinar 007- I don't know much about that Marxist smut :)

this is taken from http://www.roubiniglobal.com/setser/

But "China's currency currently floats v. the euro, the yen, the korean won, and a number of other currencies".

Also: "The RMB has appreciated by about 7% against one of China's major trading partners this year. Not the US, obviously. But that doesn't mean that China is not exposed to moves in the dollar-euro, or the dollar-yen.

Indeed, right now, it looks like the RMB will move far more against the euro than against the dollar in 2005, even if China makes some small changes in the dollar-RMB peg over the summer."

That being said it seems as though (1) the yuan will appreciate at least some amount by the end of the year (2) this is very little opportunity for the yuan to be devalued.

Nyinvest-it is true that the yuan's rise v. the dollar would likely raise US long term interest rates,and that's why I'm short the long bond right now. But that aside its seems that the US economy has a few problems that are likely when the yuan is revalued, namely the possibility of weaker dollar, higher int rates that could dampen or burst the housing bubble.

Buy the yuan and short the long bond.

[Dinar007]

Dinar 007- I don't know much about that Marxist smut :)
Me neither....Just a little bit.
>
But that aside its seems that the US economy has a few problems that are likely when the yuan is revalued, namely the possibility of weaker dollar, higher int rates that could dampen or burst the housing bubble.

Buy the yuan and short the long bond.
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It would also make those products made in china at walmart cost more.
Sorry shop till you drop shoppers. Get one of those exclusive "BB"
pop proof bubbles. :drunk:

[Templecityboy]

http://scoop.agonist.org/story/2005/5/31/10160/2341

[DJ Dinar Slinga]

still trying to figure out the mechanism to purchase yuan.

[Templecityboy]

still trying to figure out the mechanism to purchase yuan.
Do you have any major banks where you live like Bank of America?? If so, you should be able to purchase them their. I believe this to be a strong investment opportunity with a good chance to earn at least 15% on your investment. China can only hold out so long.

[nyinvest]

You might be better off with leveraged contracts on the Yuan. There are also some currency mutual fund type vehicles that will pay off on a reval. I have a couple, I think. I think I'm long Thailand and short Australia or something along those lines. I'm really not into currencies and they were presented to me as a mid term hedge against volatility in my main account.

Or to hell with it and just buy more Dinar.

[Runamuck]

Amen by more dinar there cheaper..

[PghRiverRat]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20050617/ap_on_bi_ge/china_bank_of_america

[atxdinardude]

Don't forget that the free trade agreement with Iraq will most likely send many raw materials and other exports to Iraq for the rebuilding process. The EU may be hurting our import and export balance, but that may only be temporary.

[SmoothRide]

http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/DD4E54C1-FF0E-4DA7-B5C3-4363A933EC73.htm