Status report?

[Goalie Interference]

Does anyone know the status of the following items?

1. Iraq's current foreign reserves.
2. Remaining delinquent foreign debt.

[FreeMyDinar]

Wondering the same thing myself, can't seem to find that neat little spreadsheet that was posted up on the CBI website that gives US Fed Bank accumulations...

Anyone still have the link to that spreadsheet?? :drunk:

[BrerRabbit]

Ive never found a specific list of debts or a list of renegotiated debt. The best I found was http://www.jubileeiraq.org/blog/. Hope that helps.

Is this the spreadsheet?
http://www.cbiraq.org/key%20financial.xls

[FreeMyDinar]

Similar to that spreadsheet, but it was keeping a monthly accumulative tally of NY Fed reserves through February (probably March now, if it's still being posted). I've been wondering why it's been changed or removed on the site.

[FreeMyDinar]

OK, here it is, you gotta scroll to the bottom of the spreadsheet, but it's still only updated through February 28th. Shows the amount of reserves in the NY Fed bank. I'd love to see where they are now through March or April.

http://www.cbiraq.org/Auctions%20Indicators_EN.xls

[Goalie Interference]

Looking at the chart, I see that no less than $1B was put in the Fed during the months of January and February. Assuming (assuming mind you) that trend continued in March and April, the total could be near $10B by now.

What about the debt? Has anyone heard more about that? Chaka had debt watch for a while.

[SOMF]

Here is a link I stumbled across that lists the debts owed by Iraq to various creditors:

http://www.jubileeiraq.org/debt_today.htm

[arh777]

80% Forgiveness Announced
The issue of Iraq’s massive foreign debt is at the heart of its economic transition. Estimated
at US$120.2bn by the Paris Club at end-2004, the debt is clearly unsustainable, and any
serious attempt to repay it would bankrupt the state. Positively, this has long been
acknowledged by Iraq’s creditors, and in November 2004, the Paris Club of creditor states
announced debt reduction that will, eventually, be worth up to 80% of the total owed to it.
However, notwithstanding the fact that two-thirds of the debt is not covered by the offer,
there is scant support within Iraq for repaying anything above 5% of debt accrued under
Inflation looks set to rise in 2005, although
it should fall back thereafter.
In November, the Paris Club announced
that it would forgive 80% of Iraq’s debt.
BMI View: Though the offer is not as
good as the Iraqis would have liked, the
costs of an outright default on Saddamera
debt are now much higher, making,
on balance, acceptance more likely.
IRAQ Q2 2005
18 Business Monitor International Ltd
Saddam Hussein. Consequently, while we believe that the deal should reduce the debt to
sustainable levels, the issue will remain politically important within Iraq over the forecast
period. And, while the prospect of an outright default by a sovereign Iraqi government now
looks unlikely, it should not be assumed that the issue has been finally resolved.
Although accurate figures are impossible to come by, there is a consensus that Iraq owes
US$120-130bn. Of the total, US$38.9bn is owed to Paris Club states, with an estimated
US$70bn of liabilities to other states, and US$15bn to private creditors. Furthermore, a
further US$31bn is owed to Kuwait for reparations as a result of the 1990 invasion – with
the UN Compensation Commission (UNCC) yet to decide on a further US$71bn of claims
– with payments on this pegged at 5% of oil export revenue, as decided by the UN Security
Council. Importantly, calculating the total amount is complicated as much of the debt owed
to Gulf states – Saudi Arabia is reportedly claiming US$25bn – reportedly has very little
supporting paperwork, and Iraqis (with US support), claim that it was intended as a gift,
rather than loan.
The Value Of The Deal
Disregarding confusion – and disagreement – about the final total, it is clear that it is wholly
unsustainable. If no debt relief were forthcoming, it would equate to over 300% of GDP and
500% of exports by the end of our forecast period according to our core – optimistic –
scenario for growth, even assuming no new interest charges of additional debt. Given this,
debt forgiveness has been at the forefront of US and Iraqi diplomacy and, after a faltering
start, made rapid headway in Q404.
After months of behind-the-scenes negotiations, the Paris Club announced a three-stage plan
to forgive up to 80% of Iraq’s total debt stock to the organisation in November. The plan
started with a 30% write-off on January 1 2005; with a second tranche of 30% due when an
IMF programme is approved (probably late-2005). Finally, 20% of the initial stock will be
written off when (or if) the IMF deems the first three years of the programme to have been
completed successfully. Furthermore, there is to be a six-year grace period on repayments,
with repayment of the remaining debt stock over a 23-year period only beginning in 2011.
An important feature of Paris Club debt restructuring is that it sets a floor for debt
repayments. Indeed, while creditors – both within and outside the Paris Club – can offer
more generous terms, the debtor state is not allowed to agree to repay any debt at a less
advantageous rate. Consequently, while creditor states – such as Kuwait and Romania – may
bristle at having their negotiating position undermined by the Paris Club deal, they will
almost certainly have to fall into line.

Source: BMI
THE DEBT SHOULD BE 16BNUSD BY 2009

[arh777]

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
The corollary is that while the current account will record a deficit throughout the forecast
period, it will be less serious than previously assumed. Furthermore, given strong support
from the US, hopes of new FDI in all sectors, and the prospect that it will sign a programme
with the IMF at the end of 2005 when its existing Emergency Post-Conflict Assistance
agreement ends, it is likely that capital account flows should more than offset current account
weakness. This should allow the central bank to increase its reserves over the forecast
period, and provide further support to the currency, which is currently the monetary anchor.
Source: BMI

[arh777]

The authorities are committed to developing an open trade and exchange system. The
Interim Iraqi government has prioritised the establishing free trade agreements and other
trade linkages with Iraq’s neighbours. Under the programme, the government will avoid
imposing restrictions on payments and transfers for international transactions, to introduce
new or intensify trade restrictions for balance of payments purposes, or resort to multiple
currency practices. The Trade Bank of Iraq (TBI) was established in December 2003 to help
facilitate international trade. Iraq also recently secured observer status at the WTO. By June
2005 the government is expected to overhaul the customs administrations.

Source: BMI

[arh777]

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Much more difficult, however, will be controlling inflation, which is hampered by the underdeveloped
banking system, as well as inadequate statistics. Essentially, at present the CBI
has very few tools to control the money supply, apart from physically injecting or
withdrawing cash from the banking system. Taking this into account, the CBI currently
targets exchange rate stability in order to, at the very least, eliminate imported inflation.
Given strong export revenues from high oil prices – which have already resulted in a rise in
foreign currency reserves – and large capital flows to offset the current account deficit, this
policy should be relatively successful and we anticipate that the dinar will remain stable over
the forecast period.
However, despite a supportive external position, it would be premature to consider the
currency regime analogous to the hard-peg regimes of other Gulf oil producers. Indeed,
other states, such as Saudi Arabia, have deep forex reserves resulting from strong balance
of payments positions over many years, not to mention large investments overseas that could
be liquidated if required. Consequently, the currency regime will remain vulnerable to a
terms-of-trade deterioration (essentially a sharp fall in oil prices).
The Slow Evolution Of Policy
While the currency policy should limit inflation, it will do little to contain price rises
emanating from domestic causes. Consequently, given the remonetisation of the economy,
it is likely that inflation will expand in 2005 – indeed, the IMF anticipates inflation of 15%.
This should be a temporary phenomena, and we anticipate that it will moderate thereafter,
although plans to replace food rations (60% of the population is reliant on food aid) with
financial assistance – which should help reinvigorate the agricultural sector –pose some risk.
Given the limits of an exchange rate target, the CBI is working to increase its technical ability
to control the money supply over the forecast period. The government has already started
issuing debt, in an attempt to set benchmark rates for the banking sector – an essential precursor
for open market operations – and it has increased regulation of the state and private
banking sector, including the establishment of new reserve requirements. At present, the
CBI would be wholly unable to implement an inflation-targeting regime. However, should
the banking system develop – which would require a substantial injection of new capital by
foreign institutions – the CBI could, possibly, switch from an exchange-rate target to one
oriented around money supply growth over the medium term.

Source: BMI

[stevie]

So do you think an international currency would be better sooner or later? I am totally in the dark in the finance area and you sound like you are on the ball.

[FreeMyDinar]

So do you think an international currency would be better sooner or later? I am totally in the dark in the finance area and you sound like you are on the ball.

I've been thinking about this and I'm starting to think Iraq should open it's currency to foreign investment with certain holding restrictions, until maximum stability is reached.

They could allow for the currency to continue to "float" but require the purchaser to hold the currency for a period of 30 days or more. This would encourage investors to "go long" on the currency, and help to insulate against speculation driving the price down every time a suicide/homicide bombing hits the news wires.

I have no clue if that arrangement is doable, but it seems like a good way to at least maintain a buffer against negative impact on the dinar if it's not officially pegged against the dollar or a basket.

Anyone else have thoughts on this?

[copper13]

I posted a link about a meeting May 4th on the economy thread, I'll post it again here.http://www.jubileeiraq.org/blog/#top The Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank of Iraq today announced that they intend to host an informational and consultative meeting on May 4, 2005, at a location to be announced, with commercial parties holding claims against Iraq or Iraqi public sector companies. Further details and information on the location and logistics for the meeting will be released next week.

[Goalie Interference]

Has anyone heard any more about the meeting on the 4th? That is the day after tomorrow, and I've seen no news.

[SOMF]

Has anyone heard any more about the meeting on the 4th? That is the day after tomorrow, and I've seen no news.

Hopefully this will be very telling (and positve!!)

[Dinaress]

this is dated but informative
http://www.clubdeparis.org/en/countries/countries.php?IDENTIFIANT=397&POSITION=0&CONTINENT_ID=&TYPE_TRT=&ANNEE=&INDICE_DET=&LIST_LAST=O&PAY_ISO_ID=IQ

[Dinaress]

ok we need this broken down into words..
http://www.imf.org/external/np/tre/tad/extforth.cfm?memberKey1=460&date1key=2005%2D03%2D31&category=FORTH&year=2005&trxtype=REPCHG&overforth=F&schedule=exp&extend=Y

[BrerRabbit]

ok we need this broken down into words..
http://www.imf.org/external/np/tre/tad/extforth.cfm?memberKey1=460&date1key=2005%2D03%2D31&category=FORTH&year=2005&trxtype=REPCHG&overforth=F&schedule=exp&extend=Y

And while youre at it explain this too...

http://www.imf.org/external/np/tre/tad/exportal.cfm?memberKey1=460&date1key=2005%2D03%2D31&category=EXCHRT&finposition_flag=YES

Is this the official historical exchange rate?

[Dinaress]

And while youre at it explain this too...

http://www.imf.org/external/np/tre/tad/exportal.cfm?memberKey1=460&date1key=2005%2D03%2D31&category=EXCHRT&finposition_flag=YES

Is this the official historical exchange rate?
God i hope so :D

[suzanne]

Does anyone know the status of the following items?

1. Iraq's current foreign reserves.
2. Remaining delinquent foreign debt.

I am not sure if this fully answers the "Remaining delinquent foreing debt", but it might help some, also on the right column is a list of creditors (that might have more useful information per country.

http://www.jubileeiraq.org/reperations.htm ( http://www.jubileeiraq.org/reperations.htm)

Here is another link http://www.jubileeiraq.org/debt_today.htm

Suzanne