An updated perspective

[icarusII]

As new information has been shared recently.......I thought it good to update what is revealed so far.

Perspective I:
http://www.investorsiraq.com/showpost.php?p=73706&postcount=83

Perspective II:
Post from Dr. Cashflow
The Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) consists of three types of assets: U.S. dollars, foreign currencies, and Special Drawing Rights (SDRs)1. Currently, the ESF has a total of approximately $38 billion in these three assets. The ESF can be used to purchase or sell foreign currencies. This fund can be utilized to achieve/defend target exchange rates.

http://www.treas.gov/offices/international-affairs/esf/

B]Update from Dr. Cashflow[/B]
Thanks, MB. I just returned but will leave again next week. I have info on the "announcement" but since the date is within a timeframe, I have shared with only a few. It's just not worth the hassle to post openly and then be lambasted if there's a schedule change. Even the president himself has schedule changes that are beyond his control.
But I will give a tip since it's already public. Jaafari has hinted at least twice on how the dinar can open significantly higher. Check the transcripts of his recent conferences. There is a key phrase that he's mentioned several times that gives insight into the mechanics. The president even smiled when Jaafari "slipped" and used the term during the first conference.

Excerpt from Jaafari’s press conference
“Al Jaafari pressed for a long-term US commitment for assistance to help with reconstruction and debt relief.
"We hope that Mr Bush will try to redo a Marshall Plan, calling it the Bush plan, to help Iraq ... And this would be a very wonderful step that they stand beside us," he said.
He was referring to the US investment plan for helping rebuild Europe after the Second World War”

More from Dr. Cashflow
The modified, yet unnamed "plan" is in its final stages. If you don't believe the dinar can open much higher and/or need reassurance, go ask someone who invested in D Marks circa 1946. And yes there are still some living.
"The nations of Europe had nothing to sell for hard currency, and the democratic socialist governments in most countries were unwilling to adopt the draconian proposals for recovery advocated by old-line classical economists. Something had to be done, both for humanitarian reasons and also to stop the potential spread of communism westward.
The United States offered up to $20 billion for relief, but only if the European nations could get together and draw up a rational plan on how they would use the aid."
"The Marshall Plan, it should be noted, benefited the American economy as well. The money would be used to buy goods from the United States, and they had to be shipped across the Atlantic on American merchant vessels. But it worked. By 1953 the United States had pumped in $13 billion, and Europe was standing on its feet again."

In my humble opinion, he gave us the "whole enchilada" and now we wait for it to be served.
Again, it's just the puzzle I see.....draw your own conclusions.

GLTA,
Icarus
Oh......and bboop please don't read this. I saw your reaction to the last perspectives post.

[bert]

thanks-bert

[BugmanIraq]

Lets hope it opens soon. I'd hate to spend another summer here. All beach and no water!

[RET]

Thank you IcarusII. :wave:

Interesting perspective. I think I like it.

[spligger1]

Amen. thanks

[icarusII]

No I think it more appropriate that Dr. Cashflow rules......

[spligger1]

Where is the Doc??!!!

DOCTOR!

[Tinydancer]

Perspective I: (from Icarus post above)...
http://www.investorsiraq.com/showpo...06&postcount=83

Perspective II:
Post from Dr. Cashflow
The Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) consists of three types of assets: U.S. dollars, foreign currencies, and Special Drawing Rights (SDRs)1. Currently, the ESF has a total of approximately $38 billion in these three assets. The ESF can be used to purchase or sell foreign currencies. This fund can be utilized to achieve/defend target exchange rates.


More from Dr. Cashflow
The modified, yet unnamed "plan" is in its final stages. If you don't believe the dinar can open much higher and/or need reassurance, go ask someone who invested in D Marks circa 1946. And yes there are still some living.


Yesterday, 10:27 AM

stephen
Member
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 36

GDP/NID value/Oil reserves
yes, looking at GDP and monetary aggegates like M3 are a good place to start when valuing a currency, but there is alot more. In the case of Iraq it is definitely a commodity currnecy like South Africa, Canada, Australia, Saudi Arabia so the base commodity will be crucial in this case oil. With the oil price high it helps, but bigger is Iraq's oil reserves which are monstrous. There was a Harvard guy who put out a research paper back in 2003 that delt directly with the NID and its value. His thesis if I recall correctly was that the NID should be pegged at .33$ + .33 euros + 1/100 of the oil price in $, right now this would be worth .33 + .39 (euro) + .61 or US $ 1.33.Obviously this would be huge for us, and it is what this guys thesis is. Here is the link:


http://ksghome.harvard.edu/~jfranke...qs_Currency.pdf


my note:

If it opens with the theory above....and with the stabilization fund that we have....

along this time frame..(obviously the "Plan", time frame)..

More from Dr. Cashflow
The modified, yet unnamed "plan" is in its final stages. If you don't believe the dinar can open much higher and/or need reassurance, go ask someone who invested in D Marks circa 1946.

Excerpt from Jaafari’s press conference
“Al Jaafari pressed for a long-term US commitment for assistance to help with reconstruction and debt relief.
"We hope that Mr Bush will try to redo a Marshall Plan, calling it the Bush plan, to help Iraq ... And this would be a very wonderful step that they stand beside us," he said.
He was referring to the US investment plan for helping rebuild Europe after the Second World War”


In a Postive analogy....We are sitting on a small window of time and a high opening, or soon to be high post opening yield.. :D

[bboop]

Oh......and bboop please don't read this. I saw your reaction to the last perspectives post.


Oh no!!! Too late!!! ;)

:lmao: :lmao: :lmao:

[icarusII]

If we all think .20-.30 was good..........Oh Lord let this man's thesis be on the money!

GLTA,
Icarus

[Tinydancer]

If we all think .20-.30 was good..........Oh Lord let this man's thesis be on the money!

GLTA,
Icarus
Yesterday, 01:19 PM

stephen
Member
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 36
I did
I did serve the real raw stuff, see earlier post.

Even if the fractions are too high, this is still good. In other words, if they go with this theory but do 1/9 US, 1/9 Euro, and 1/1000 of oil it is still

.11 + .13 + .06 = 30 cents US


(I like 1 for 1 myself...and find that not to be undoable (is that a word)? Geraldo!!! :o

[LauraD]

"There was a Harvard guy who put out a research paper back in 2003 that delt directly with the NID and its value. [B]His thesis if I recall correctly was that the NID should be pegged at .33$ + .33 euros + 1/100 of the oil price in $, right now this would be worth .33 + .39 (euro) + .61 or US $ 1.33 (quote)."

but Harvard is good enough for me!!! :D

[Gerardo]

First of all, my name is Gerardo and second of all, if you feel that is a word, then according to you, it is. I know how the school system works in the U.S. It's not about what is right, but rather what you feel is right. If you want to know if that is a correct word, ask Webster. This whole conversation is boring to me. I only like to get into detailed discussions with people who are higher up on the food chain. Thanks.

[Hollywood]

I know this is an old article.
It does however pertain to this discussion.
The Link (http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2003/el2003-13.html)

[Aunt Gwennie]

"There was a Harvard guy who put out a research paper back in 2003 that delt directly with the NID and its value. [B]His thesis if I recall correctly was that the NID should be pegged at .33$ + .33 euros + 1/100 of the oil price in $, right now this would be worth .33 + .39 (euro) + .61 or US $ 1.33 (quote)."

but Harvard is good enough for me!!! :D

http://www.ksg.harvard.edu/news/opeds/2003/frankel_dinar_ft_061303.htm

and here is more about the author of that paper

http://ksgfaculty.harvard.edu/Jeffrey_Frankel

Wonder who else is listening to Professor Frankel?

AG

[LakewayDaze!]

First of all, my name is Gerardo and second of all, if you feel that is a word, then according to you, it is. I know how the school system works in the U.S. It's not about what is right, but rather what you feel is right. If you want to know if that is a correct word, ask Webster. This whole conversation is boring to me. I only like to get into detailed discussions with people who are higher up on the food chain. Thanks.


undoable

adj : impossible to achieve; "an unattainable goal" [syn: unachievable, unattainable, unrealizable]


Sure hope this helps. :)

[LakewayDaze!]

http://www.ksg.harvard.edu/news/opeds/2003/frankel_dinar_ft_061303.htm

and here is more about the author of that paper

http://ksgfaculty.harvard.edu/Jeffrey_Frankel

Wonder who else is listening to Professor Frankel?

AG

Aunt Gwennie if this is the same guy I am thinking of then there is an email address for him at the bottom of his paper. I saw this many months ago and decided to send him an email asking him if he had any updated opinions about the currency situation. He sent me a reply almost immediately. He said that he didn't have an updated reply. It was very short and had no opinions at all. I was surprised to hear anything from him actually. Perhaps someone else could email him and try a differant approach or something. Just a thought....:)

[Aunt Gwennie]

Aunt Gwennie if this is the same guy I am thinking of then there is an email address for him at the bottom of his paper. I saw this many months ago and decided to send him an email asking him if he had any updated opinions about the currency situation. He sent me a reply almost immediately. He said that he didn't have an updated reply. It was very short and had no opinions at all. I was surprised to hear anything from him actually. Perhaps someone else could email him and try a differant approach or something. Just a thought....:)

I already did!! Great minds think alike!! :happy26:

This was my question: " I have recently re-read your paper A Crude Peg for the Iraqi Dinar, dated June 13, 2003. With the every increasing price per barrel on crude oil, is the peg/basket scenario you discussed even more viable today than it was 2 years ago?"

I will let you know what response I get back.

AG

[LakewayDaze!]

I dig it AG! I am a fan of his already. I just hope the powers that be are listening to him. :D

[OutToDinar]

Hi all... :wave:

I am a regular lurker and rarely post (mainly because I don't have much info to share or the time to research) but I have to say that you folks are truly great! I'm referring your willingness to share the results of your research at the risk of getting criticized and flamed.

If technology allowed, I would e-mail you all a big piece of my homemade Lasagna. :)

[Aunt Gwennie]

I already did!! Great minds think alike!! :happy26:

This was my question: " I have recently re-read your paper A Crude Peg for the Iraqi Dinar, dated June 13, 2003. With the every increasing price per barrel on crude oil, is the peg/basket scenario you discussed even more viable today than it was 2 years ago?"

I will let you know what response I get back.

AG

Here is the reply from Professor Frankel

"yes, I think recent big fluctuations in the price of oil does make the
virtues of the proposal more concrete"

Short but SWEET!!

[LakewayDaze!]

Here is the reply from Professor Frankel

"yes, I think recent big fluctuations in the price of oil does make the
virtues of the proposal more concrete"

Short but SWEET!!


Once again I must agree. That is about as Sweet as we could expect from someone in his position. I take that as if it all is going well in his eyes, which is what we want. :) Great Job AG!! :happy64:

[Tinydancer]

Aunt Gwennie][/B]Here is the reply from Professor Frankel

"yes, I think recent big fluctuations in the price of oil does make the
virtues of the proposal more concrete"
Short but SWEET!!


Your response was immediate and short and sweet...and even a few months ago he felt the same way according to Steven....



Yesterday, 10:55 AM

stephen
Member
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 36




NID value/RED MEAT
I posted this under a response, but feel it warrants a new thread, this is real RED Meat for those interested in how the NID could/should be valued.

Jeff Frankel updates his "peg to the Export" price thsis as recently as a few months ago. In this thesis he cites Iraq on page 3, see his footnote 3 which refers to his previous.. Dr. Frankel has put out quite a bit of highest quality research.

I thought it noteworthy that he backs this view as recently as a few months ago.

http://ksghome.harvard.edu/~jfranke...20Index-JPM.pdf (this link does not work tough...the one I listed previously (from Jerry), does though..

page 3 and on is very interesting.

[Tinydancer]

First of all, my name is Gerardo and second of all, if you feel that is a word, then according to you, it is. I know how the school system works in the U.S. It's not about what is right, but rather what you feel is right. If you want to know if that is a correct word, ask Webster. This whole conversation is boring to me. I only like to get into detailed discussions with people who are higher up on the food chain. Thanks.


sorry, but I was talking to Geraldo...



:lmao: and that is not undoable....<g>

[top123]

:happy64:
"or US $ 1.33" oh my ... oh my..

I am dancing in the street with my wifi laptop..

[sogrgirl]

:happy64:
"or US $ 1.33" oh my ... oh my..

I am dancing in the street with my wifi laptop..

that you had said "dancing in the street with my wife on my lap...then I saw "top" and it all became clear....

and I really like the $1.33 scenario (realistic, or not) but not half as much as the $6.35 one!!! so far, that is my favorite!

[swartzfeger]

Here is the reply from Professor Frankel

"yes, I think recent big fluctuations in the price of oil does make the
virtues of the proposal more concrete"

Short but SWEET!!

Ok, it's official -- my dinar-funded mountain retreat will be named "Camp Frankel."

[freebird]

that you had said "dancing in the street with my wife on my lap...then I saw "top" and it all became clear....

and I really like the $1.33 scenario (realistic, or not) but not half as much as the $6.35 one!!! so far, that is my favorite!
hey sogrgirl have a good day hope so i got a question r u in iraq if so how many dinar does it take to buy a coke or a pack of ciggs at a local market

[LakewayDaze!]

hey sogrgirl have a good day hope so i got a question r u in iraq if so how many dinar does it take to buy a coke or a pack of ciggs at a local market


FreeBird how is that boat coming along??

[freebird]

well i have a 32 footer at the marina now and a picture of a 65 ftr on my desk, did it peg yet

[LakewayDaze!]

well i have a 32 footer at the marina now and a picture of a 65 ftr on my desk, did it peg yet

Not that I am aware of FreeBird. How is it looking on your end??

[freebird]

things r great on my end, just trying to keep up with everything trying to pin point the dinar seems to be alittle frustrating rum helps a lot

[LakewayDaze!]

things r great on my end, just trying to keep up with everything trying to pin point the dinar seems to be alittle frustrating rum helps a lot

Make sure you keep your life jacket fastened up tight!! The way those sharks are terrorizing Florida I suggest that you stay on deck son. :happy26:

[freebird]

yes daddy

[NewYorkSackExchange]

things r great on my end, just trying to keep up with everything trying to pin point the dinar seems to be alittle frustrating rum helps a lot


The trophy wife should help also :wave:

[icarusII]

Perspectives I:
http://www.investorsiraq.com/showpost.php?p=73706&postcount=83

Perspectives II:
http://www.investorsiraq.com/showpost.php?p=75152&postcount=1

Perspectives III:

Press release concerning the trade agreement between US and Iraq
http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=politicsNews&storyID=2005-07-11T174906Z_01_N11483229_RTRIDST_0_POLITICS-TRADE-IRAQ-USA-DC.XML

http://menafn.com/qn_news_story_s.asp?StoryId=99867

Post from Dr. Cashflow - 7/12/05
It's a provision of the "Plan" that's being implemented, similar to that of the "Marshall Plan" for Germany, to facilitate the purchase of American goods and services by Iraqis with their soon-to-be enhanced purchasing power. It's a win-win situation that will reinforce long-term trade and strategic partnering between the U.S. and Iraq.

Exchange of posts between MunnyBags and Dr. Cashflow on release of dinar
Munny Bags - 7/12/05
Munny Bags:One key indicator would be an announcement from the Iraqi government and the IMF that the Dinar is to be released. This announcement can occur anywhere from one week to a few months prior to the release. They could set a solid date or a general date. They might even indicate a potential soft peg/float value. As of today this announcement has not been made.

Dr. C: Expect an announcement this summer.

Dr. C: There is a target rate and the dinar will not trade until the "powers-that-be" can achieve the target rate. You have to understand "Washington-speak" which I'll address in another thread.

Post from Lance
6/17/05 - Good investigative work, Lance, on your several posts. The IRS' concern (as a unit in the Dept. of Treas) about potential tax evasion and/or loss revenue, from per transaction exchanges under $10,000 each, indicates the Dept of Treasury's belief that US residents will be able to exchange from dinar to dollar. It's no secret the scale of speculation within the US, though minor in scale compared to what FX trading will be once the dinar is deemed an international currency. My sources say there will be a delay before worldwide exchange. Documentation will be required and extended holds on deposits before final clearance of funds. Account holders will be required to reverify personal info that will again be compared to Homeland Security's database for potential illicit funding as well as required forms submitted to the IRS. Deposits may take up to 30 days to clear before withdrawal.
I too am hearing anytime between June 28th and mid-July, but probably the first week. My sources are quoting 20 - 30 cents, though. Are you still told 30 to 43 cents?
Stay safe, my friend. I look forward to meeting you one day. end of sources statement.
7/13/05 - Yes this is a US form, no I dont know if this will be used to transfer currency into the U.S. from Iraq. I have been told by a seperate source to expect a long delay in transfering funds from Iraq due to the patriot act, 30 days on average. This guy like most of us who post simply gets tired of the ridicule. You can tell by his post he wants to share he just doesnt want to be bothered with the riff raft. We are gonna be so rich, so soon, and she is still making me go back until it is for sure. Lance

Just more of the puzzle I see........

GLTA,
Icarus

P.S RET now you know.......... ;)

[H2OLover]

Perspectives I:
http://www.investorsiraq.com/showpost.php?p=73706&postcount=83

Perspectives II:
http://www.investorsiraq.com/showpost.php?p=75152&postcount=1

Perspectives III:

Press release concerning the trade agreement between US and Iraq
http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=politicsNews&storyID=2005-07-11T174906Z_01_N11483229_RTRIDST_0_POLITICS-TRADE-IRAQ-USA-DC.XML

http://menafn.com/qn_news_story_s.asp?StoryId=99867

Post from Dr. Cashflow - 7/12/05
It's a provision of the "Plan" that's being implemented, similar to that of the "Marshall Plan" for Germany, to facilitate the purchase of American goods and services by Iraqis with their soon-to-be enhanced purchasing power. It's a win-win situation that will reinforce long-term trade and strategic partnering between the U.S. and Iraq.

Exchange of posts between MunnyBags and Dr. Cashflow on release of dinar
Munny Bags - 7/12/05
Munny Bags:One key indicator would be an announcement from the Iraqi government and the IMF that the Dinar is to be released. This announcement can occur anywhere from one week to a few months prior to the release. They could set a solid date or a general date. They might even indicate a potential soft peg/float value. As of today this announcement has not been made.

Dr. C: Expect an announcement this summer.

Dr. C: There is a target rate and the dinar will not trade until the "powers-that-be" can achieve the target rate. You have to understand "Washington-speak" which I'll address in another thread.

Post from Lance
6/17/05 - Good investigative work, Lance, on your several posts. The IRS' concern (as a unit in the Dept. of Treas) about potential tax evasion and/or loss revenue, from per transaction exchanges under $10,000 each, indicates the Dept of Treasury's belief that US residents will be able to exchange from dinar to dollar. It's no secret the scale of speculation within the US, though minor in scale compared to what FX trading will be once the dinar is deemed an international currency. My sources say there will be a delay before worldwide exchange. Documentation will be required and extended holds on deposits before final clearance of funds. Account holders will be required to reverify personal info that will again be compared to Homeland Security's database for potential illicit funding as well as required forms submitted to the IRS. Deposits may take up to 30 days to clear before withdrawal.
I too am hearing anytime between June 28th and mid-July, but probably the first week. My sources are quoting 20 - 30 cents, though. Are you still told 30 to 43 cents?
Stay safe, my friend. I look forward to meeting you one day. end of sources statement.
7/13/05 - Yes this is a US form, no I dont know if this will be used to transfer currency into the U.S. from Iraq. I have been told by a seperate source to expect a long delay in transfering funds from Iraq due to the patriot act, 30 days on average. This guy like most of us who post simply gets tired of the ridicule. You can tell by his post he wants to share he just doesnt want to be bothered with the riff raft. We are gonna be so rich, so soon, and she is still making me go back until it is for sure. Lance

Just more of the puzzle I see........

GLTA,
Icarus

P.S RET now you know.......... ;)
well i am glad Ret knows ...sure wish i did. puzzles use to wear me out as a kid and they still do ...i will have to wait for someone to wake to de code it for me ... :)

[icarusII]

well i am glad Ret knows ...sure wish i did. puzzles use to wear me out as a kid and they still do ...i will have to wait for someone to wake to de code it for me ... :)

H2OLover,
RET pm'd me the other day asking what GLTA meant.

GLTA=Good Luck To All

No codes here.........

Icarus

[H2OLover]

to funny ...thanks guess my mind is working over time these day

[icarusII]

I personally don't see the need in stressing over the new info.

Dr. Cashflow laid it out pretty clearly......
"soon-to-be enhanced purchasing power"
"Expect an announcement this summer"
"There is a target rate and the dinar will not trade until the "powers-that-be" can achieve the target rate"

Lance's info.........
"I too am hearing anytime between June 28th and mid-July, but probably the first week. My sources are quoting 20 - 30 cents, though. Are you still told 30 to 43 cents?"

Fed's info.....
"Lance's investigative work has yielded some pretty accurate data based on a recent Federal Reserve meeting. Though .72 is a little optimistic, one of his earlier posts was in the ballpark."

Dr. Cashflow Post.......
"Tomorrow, the IMF revises its valuation model inputs."

Dates, rates, Declaration Forms, FinCen 104, 105, capital gains taxes, off shore accounts........I have no idea. What I do know based on the above info is that scores of intelligent people are working this issue. Political, financial, and personal reputations are at stake with all of this. These people have a plan and will work it until it is successful.
We all got on the train early and will reap the benefits of all of this.......time will tell the tale on this one! Sooner than later I would think. :happy64:

GLTA,
Icarus

[super juicy]

Many post-conflict economies lack policy credibility. By dollarizing or
euroizing, post-conflict economies may improve their credibility. As an alternative to
outright adoption of a foreign currency, currency boards allow for a post-conflict country
to circulate a national currency while simultaneously improving policy credibility
because a currency board pegs the national currency to the exchange rate of the euro, the
dollar or some basket of international currencies. A currency board may be superior to
dollarization because currency board countries still benefit from seigniorage revenue and
enjoy greater policy flexibility than they would under outright dollarization.

[ALIBABBA]

I have been following the Dinar since October 15TH of 03, I agree with Icarus on this. We are receiving much more information then we use to. It is still speculation all the way around, however if Iraq wants to be considered a player in the worlds economic market, it would not be prudent to impose restrictions on when why and how to use their currency. I beleive it would reduce the value of Dinar and cause financial institutions to shy away from the Dinar.



Best Regards

[icarusII]

I have a very strong feeling this will be the last perspectives post needed.

Dr. C 7/14/05
Hint: You should expect to hear "the announcement" week after the donors' conference in Jordan.

What else needs to be said.........other than GLTA.

Icarus

[MotorDown]

I have a very strong feeling this will be the last perspectives post needed.

Dr. C 7/14/05
Hint: You should expect to hear "the announcement" week after the donors' conference in Jordan.

What else needs to be said.........other than GLTA.

Icarus


They can say "It's pegged." :happy64: