FAST1
08-26-2004, 02:43 PM
Disclaimer: I have stated that I know someone who may provide insight into the oil market, this information should be used as a tool to make up your own mind based on all data available. I cannot guarantee the validity of this info because we do not have the power to predict the future.
Source: Chemical Engineer who has worked for 3 major oil companies for the past 27 years.
Title: Advanced Analyst of crude oil supply & inventory control responsible for crude oil and feedstock management.
When asked to make a short term prediction on crude oil prices for the world market........
"Oil will be in the $35 to $39 range by Oct-Nov. If the winter is severe it will pop up a few dollars. Saudia Arabia wants the price of crude to be stable at $35. Russia and Iraq need to be somewhat stable as they have been previously for the price to get down to $35."
When I asked him what may cause a huge increase, he stated " A catastrophic event such as a major attack on plants, a revolution in a producing country, or a major natural disaster."
When I asked him about the analysts on Bloomberg saying crude will reach 60-70 then 100. He said " If you listen to some of the investment analysts you need to keep in mind that they may represent buyers of stock who are looking to profit on an increase in crude costs."
I asked him how this affected the market he said "Fear and greed drive the market!"
Take that for what it is worth, I am confident that business will continue in a reasonable way barring any major event. He has agreed to give me updated forecasts as the world events unfold. It is also important to remember that nobody can predict a disaster, but he has been very good at predicting the peaks and lows of the yearly events. He knows what factors are normal and what are not.
Have a nice day. :)
Source: Chemical Engineer who has worked for 3 major oil companies for the past 27 years.
Title: Advanced Analyst of crude oil supply & inventory control responsible for crude oil and feedstock management.
When asked to make a short term prediction on crude oil prices for the world market........
"Oil will be in the $35 to $39 range by Oct-Nov. If the winter is severe it will pop up a few dollars. Saudia Arabia wants the price of crude to be stable at $35. Russia and Iraq need to be somewhat stable as they have been previously for the price to get down to $35."
When I asked him what may cause a huge increase, he stated " A catastrophic event such as a major attack on plants, a revolution in a producing country, or a major natural disaster."
When I asked him about the analysts on Bloomberg saying crude will reach 60-70 then 100. He said " If you listen to some of the investment analysts you need to keep in mind that they may represent buyers of stock who are looking to profit on an increase in crude costs."
I asked him how this affected the market he said "Fear and greed drive the market!"
Take that for what it is worth, I am confident that business will continue in a reasonable way barring any major event. He has agreed to give me updated forecasts as the world events unfold. It is also important to remember that nobody can predict a disaster, but he has been very good at predicting the peaks and lows of the yearly events. He knows what factors are normal and what are not.
Have a nice day. :)