How much will this war end up costing UK/US?

[Adster]

IF the dinar was never part of the package then aside oil why did they go in? Was oil the only reason and had nothing to do with the currency? and please don't say for the love of Iraqi people!

Thoughts? The place needs some interaction!!

[dilligaf]

It will end up costing less than the interest on the current stimulus package.
That's my guess.

Adster, I still have hope for the currency....

[williambedloe]

IF the dinar was never part of the package then aside oil why did they go in? Was oil the only reason and had nothing to do with the currency? and please don't say for the love of Iraqi people!

Thoughts? The place needs some interaction!!

I think the US wanted a foothold in the region to counteract Iranian influence. Iraq was the best option. Educated populace, an oppressive ruler, and an ungodly amount of easily accessible natural resources made Iraq the perfect option for success. A democracy (or something close to it) in Iraq would be a huge boon to security in the region. I think Bush took a different approach to Middle East policy than his predecessors. He refused to make deals with the typical strongmen - he decided that the time for that policy was over - it created brutal dictatorships and engendered hatred amongst the oppressed populace for the West. Case in point - US propped up Saddam to fight the Ayatollahs in Iran back in the 80s. Saddam was brutal, and gained too much power through intimidation and theft - when the US turned on him, he used it to his advantage. The embargo only fueled his wealth and furthered the oppression of his people. All the while, he blamed the US, and it worked.

Bush broke from this completely. First job - stop talking with Arafat completely. He shut him out. He then did the same to Saddam, Hamas and others...we will not deal with terrorists.


Iraq - IMO - was the perfect place to launch the invasion. There was plenty of animosity for Iran there - this would act as a deterrent to Iran filling in the void after the fall. It was touch and go for awhile, but so far, it seems to have worked.

The population is educated enough to make democracy work, and with Western guidance and expatriates, Iraq could begin to rebuild. It is taking some time, but security just got better only recently. There are still political blocs jockeying for position and strength, and the Kurdish situation is still tenuous, but the economy's explosion is no longer a matter of IF, but a matter of WHEN.

I originally fell prey to the "plan for the dinar to make Iraqi's rich" story, but over time, I realized that this is not about a quick currency play. This is about building an economy to last - since they have more natural resources than practically anyone on the planet, the chances for success are far greater.


I don't think the US and the UK will see instant return on their investment. I think they are looking towards long term stability as the answer. If Iraq succeeds, then another educated population - the Iranians - will want the same thing, and they will push their own religious elite out of the way to get it.

As far as an RV, I no longer believe in it.

To me, the formula is easy -

Free Iraq + economic development + further advances in bringing their natural resources to market = prosperity for Iraqis

Prosperity for Iraqis = Greater long term stability for Iraq

Greater long term stability for Iraq = better security and stability for the region

Better stability for the region = less Western investment in costly security measures and more investment from the West


This is where we will make our money...IMO - it may take a bit longer, but we have the inside track

Long haul baby!

[Crow]

IF the dinar was never part of the package then aside oil why did they go in? Was oil the only reason and had nothing to do with the currency? and please don't say for the love of Iraqi people!

Thoughts? The place needs some interaction!!

Really I think a combination of stupidity and a opportunity for some to get rich. I also feel it helped dig our economic grave, 15% Iraq war and 80% the looting in the banking and on Wall Street. The last 5% comes from the current administration who will try to help people and do mean well, but the wrong things at the wrong time will be the icing on the cake.

[Money4Nothin']

I think part of it was alittle pay-back for papa Bush. Aside from that, I do feel it was all about the oil. I mean we can speculate about WMD, but does anyone really think Saddam was a threat to the US. Where we screwed up in this mess we call Iraq is that we didn't continue kicking the hell out of them after we knocked them down, big mistake. Gave them a chance to get up and take another swing and they landed a good one, to the tune of 4000+ lives. Nevermind the thousands of Iraqis that died. When it RV 's is anybody's guess, but it will. The country will remain stagnant forever if it doesn't. Hopefully the corruption in the oil sector will come to an end soon and they can get on with what it needs to do to join the world economically. The UN has the ball and has had it for quite sometime, time to throw it back and let the Iraqis run with it.

[SC Dinar]

my feeling is that it cost to much money.

[RL-Dinar]

As far as an RV, I no longer believe in it.

Question for you if you don't think the dinar is ever going to RV.
You do realize that it's value is less than 1 penny..right?
So after Iraq's economy gets back on track: oil, roads, schools, business', stock exchange, etc., etc. Do you really think the dinar can stay at it's current value?? Something has to happen to it !!
Doesn't it have to go up to be comparable to the rest of the money making economies?

I'm not bashing, just asking

[Rob N.]

Adster,

From what I have read Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld had the plans ready but George Herbert Walker Bush did not choose to overthrow Saddam Hussein. As a resutl, the liberals criticized George Herbert Walker Bush for not overthrowing Saddam Hussein during the first gulf war. A successful invasion and overthrow of Saddam Bill Clinton would not have been President.

George Walker Bush entered office embarking on overthrowing Saddam Hussein. His vice president and defense sec brought plans to the GWB that already existed in order to accomplish what his father did not do.
Any President thinks about his legacy; the U.S. has a policy of exporting democracy. Iraq served as the latest recipiant of our form of democracy. Leaving a vaccumn for Iran to fill was unacceptable. My conclusion, there are several reasons for the invasion of Iraq. In my view, oil was not a major factor for the invasion.

To answer your question, I believe the current total of cost including reconstruction costs is between 4 and 6 trillion dollars.

Thanks,

Rob N.

[williambedloe]

Question for you if you don't think the dinar is ever going to RV.
You do realize that it's value is less than 1 penny..right?
So after Iraq's economy gets back on track: oil, roads, schools, business', stock exchange, etc., etc. Do you really think the dinar can stay at it's current value?? Something has to happen to it !!
Doesn't it have to go up to be comparable to the rest of the money making economies?

I'm not bashing, just asking

Let me qualify my comments - I don't believe in an overnight, 1000% RV any longer. Can they revisit the idea of a more aggressive currency revaluation in the future? Sure (as they can do with OTHER ideas)...I just don't think it's in the cards right now.

I know, I know - purchasing power of the Iraqis...that's all well and good, but you cannot improve the purchasing power of someone who doesn't work and has little to no income through an overnight revaluation. It doesn't work that way...the economy grows first, and the central bank amends their policies to meet the demands of the economy.

What I am saying is that early on, I used to believe in the notion that an overnight RV can jumpstart their economy - now I believe that the economy needs to be built before their currency will go anywhere...

[Midnight Tide]

Your going to have a common middle east currency, no reval at all.

[4Iraq]

IF the dinar was never part of the package then aside oil why did they go in? Was oil the only reason and had nothing to do with the currency? and please don't say for the love of Iraqi people!

Thoughts? The place needs some interaction!!

I see where you're going Adster and the truth is money chases money. I don't think we've seen the final act yet.

[RoyalBeluga]

Your going to have a common middle east currency, no reval at all.

You best hurry up and get in the ISX right?

[Midnight Tide]

You best hurry up and get in the ISX right?

Nope, my future lies in gold and silver.

[War Eagle]

I agree fully with williambedloe.i futher believe that the dinar will be slow growth until time to join the gcc,and then we will see an adjustment in the currency rate.we will make some money on the currency,just not the huge amount most of us want.it is my belief that our big money will be in the isx,and i firmly believe it will skyrocket once the hcl is signed,the market goes fully electronic,and big oil moves into iraq on a large scale.

[geowhiz]

I agree fully with williambedloe.i futher believe that the dinar will be slow growth until time to join the gcc,and then we will see an adjustment in the currency rate.we will make some money on the currency,just not the huge amount most of us want.it is my belief that our big money will be in the isx,and i firmly believe it will skyrocket once the hcl is signed,the market goes fully electronic,and big oil moves into iraq on a large scale.

Yep, slow grow 'til GCC with the currency. However Iraq is a one-trick pony (oil), so there will be some growth in the ISX with infrastructure improvements and need for lending, but as with all other stock markets around the world, the "World Economy" (specifically meaning the US, Europe, and China and our trade) will have to improve significantly before immerging markets like Iraq will see the big-time numbers we all hope for.

[Howler]

IMO the GCC will never happen. They just cant get along well enough.

Iraq was a far reaching plan. Willy B. touched on allot of it. But I disagree with his opinion that an RV is out of the question. I still believe they could blast straight up to .33 overnight. Then as the environment allows, have more RV's allowing them to reach the status Iraq wants, and deserves. Like William said, they have more natural resources than anyone in the region.

We didnt invade Iraq FOR the oil. We invaded Iraq BECAUSE of the oil, and everything else they have to offer. And yes, I still believe there was and is a plan for major payback.

[SC Dinar]

Howler, I agree with you for the most part. They just need to pick up some steam on getting those those things done.

[Howler]

Howler, I agree with you for the most part. They just need to pick up some steam on getting those those things done.

If they could get rid of the useless oil minister, they would be well on their way!

[shm925]

I personally feel it will RV to .33 - .50 USD/dinar at first, then gradually over the next few years increase to the $3.23 or so level we have all heard about, but don't think it will start out that high. If that happens, I will only sell off enough to become debt free and sit on the rest to see what happens. This theory is not new and has been kicked around this forum before, but just revisiting it just for grins and giggles.

[doobiedude]

I believe that we entered into the Iraq debacle in order to establish some modicum of presence in the middle east...being an ally of Israel does not cut it and never has for establishing a Westen presence...Iraq was the perfect choice due to it being at odds with Iran for decades and the incredible natural resources it contains that can be exploited for capitalism...the oil reserves represent one factor in the choice for Iraq but are not the all encompassing reason for being there...Saddam Hussein was also the greatest contributor to instability in the region, so taking him out of the picture was also calculated for moving toward stability...so the choice of Iraq was well thought out...but the presentation that Collin Powell gave to the UN was not...we should have rallied more international support like we did for our entry into Afghanistan before taking on Saddam...too late for that now...but the results in Iraq are looking good by virtue of the fact that the news media rarely reports on it these days...the media never likes to report any positive news because it does not draw interest...only the negative hype gets the coverage these days...

As far as the IQD is concerned...it will continue to increase in value according to the degree that Iraq rebuilds its economy and infrastructure and becomes a viable capitalistic country...oil production/sales will play a huge part for sure in meeting those goals but I gotta say that the Sunnis, Shiites and Kurds have got to bury the hatchet so Parliament can get things done (HCL) and THAT ain't happening right now...so no RV until more progress is made...