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Thread: Make America Great Again !!!

  1. #1001
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    "We are ready for an unforeseen event that
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  2. #1002
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    Trump: With crowds like these, how come we’re not winning?

    posted at 5:21 pm on August 4, 2016 by Ed Morrissey

    He’s not the only one asking this question, either. People who reject polling data — which certainly can be problematic — have wondered the same thing. Donald Trump gets tens of thousands of people to attend his rallies, while Hillary Clinton appears to struggle to fill smaller venues. Shouldn’t that indicate that Trump’s dominating the presidential race, and if not, doesn’t it indicate that polling is meaningless?
    The correct answers to those questions are no and not necessarily. Trump appeared to acknowledge that even as he posed the question yesterday in Florida:
    “We go to Oklahoma, we had 25,000 people. We had 21,000 people in Dallas. We had 35,000 people in Mobile, Alabama. We have these massive crowds,” the Republican nominee said. “You’ve got thousands of people outside trying to get in [today], and this is one hell of a big stadium.”


    Trump then mocked the Democratic nominee’s use of scripted speeches, marveling at his own improvisational style even in large venues.


    “Do you ever see Hillary Clinton? If she speaks in front of 24 people she’s got the teleprompter,” he jested. “If she came here tomorrow — so look at this place, packed, thousands outside, we actually put screens outside — so, Hillary, if she came here, if she had 500 people I’d be surprised.”


    Trump then questioned how the attendance at his rallies hasn’t been reflected in the polls.
    “I hear we’re leading Florida by a bit,” he said. “I don’t know why we’re not leading by a lot. Maybe crowds don’t make the difference.”
    Paul Manafort made a similar argument in his interview with George Stephanopoulos this morning as evidence that the campaign was running as planned, It does have one subtle difference from Trump’s claim:
    Look, last night he spoke in two events in Florida. One had 10,000 people, another 15,000 people and it’s August. I mean, these are crowds you see at the end of September, beginning of October so the support for Mr. Trump is there.
    The problem with counting crowd size is that it’s not data as much as anecdotes. Romney drew tens of thousands to a rally in Hillsborough County, Florida in the last week of the campaign, and lost the key I-4 Corridor county by almost seven points and 36,000 votes. In the same time frame, Romney packed Red Rocks Canyon in Colorado and “turned [the] interstate into a parking lot,” as one Twitter follower recalled, only to lose the state days later by five points and 137,000 votes.


    Big rallies in themselves have almost no predictive value to electoral results, and perhaps especially so when the campaign is almost entirely oriented to big rallies. As I discussed in my book Going Red, the Romney campaign relied heavily on national ad campaigns and rallies, and didn’t build an effective ground campaign to connect to voters in these key communities. Republicans lost two presidential elections with that strategy, one of which was winnable, so doubling down on the fallacy that big rally attendance augurs electoral success should make the GOP very, very nervous.


    Manafort, it should be noted, is making a more precise argument and isn’t actually claiming to be winning. He’s using crowd sizes to note that Trump’s popularity doesn’t appear to be diminishing, and that might very well be true. However, general-election campaigns require major-party candidates to expand their reach, not just keep attracting the same voters over and over again. That isn’t measured by crowd sizes, but (until Election Day at least) by polling, no matter how imperfectly that may happen. That’s the reason it pays to rely more on polling aggregation, too.
    Finally, some point to polling in 2012 to say that the polls got it wrong and had Romney winning. The RealClearPolitics aggregation from 2012 (thanks to Tom Bevan for the link) shows that Obama led almost all the way through from Romney clinching the nomination in mid-April to

    Election Day:


    The aggregation undershot Obama’s eventual margin of victory, but the trend stayed consistent even if the gap narrowed in the final four weeks.

    It’s worth noting, though, that the worst of the summer gaps also took place in August as it has now, when Obama led Romney by 4.4 points in the RCP average.

    There’s still plenty of time in this campaign, but relying on big rallies and self-deception over their meaning
    will end up producing the same result.
    "We are ready for an unforeseen event that
    may or may not occur." --Al Gore, VP :swear:

  3. #1003
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    Hmmm: Hillary now leading in the swing state of … Georgia?

    The last Democrat to carry Georgia in a presidential election was Jimmy Carter … mainly because he came from there [see update — 1992]. Two years ago, Republican David Perdue won a Senate seat in the Peach State by eight points over Democratic legacy candidate Michelle Nunn, and Nathan Deal won the gubernatorial race by the same margin over Carter’s grandson. The GOP controls all but four of Georgia’s 14 House seats.
    And yet, today, Hillary Clinton has a slight edge over Donald Trump in this deep-South state, at least in the Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll:
    Democrat Hillary Clinton has built a slim lead over Donald Trump in Georgia after one of the worst weeks of the Republican’s campaign, and the Libertarian presidential ticket cracked double-digits, according to a new Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll.
    The poll released Friday shows Clinton at 44 percent and Trump at 40 percent in a head-to-head matchup, within the poll’s margin of error. It is the latest showing a close race between the two candidates in Georgia, a state that has voted for the GOP nominee since 1996.


    In a four-way race, Clinton led Trump 41-38, followed by Libertarian Gary Johnson with 11 percent and Green Party candidate Jill Stein with 2 percent.
    Mitt Romney carried the state by seven points in 2012. The race in Georgia wasn’t considered critical enough to conduct exit polls, so the demo breakdown for comparison purposes doesn’t exist. The numbers in the AJC poll look worrisome on their own, however — if this isn’t just an outlier or a temporary burst of goodwill for Hillary after the election.


    The biggest issue is also probably the best reason for hope. Hillary holds 88% of Democrats, while Trump only holds 81% of Republicans. That may change significantly over the next few weeks, especially if Trump gets his act together and starts focusing more on Hillary than the distractions that ate up an entire week. Hillary has a 16-point lead among women, but Trump has a nine-point lead among men — but only scores a plurality at 46%. Among both Republicans and men, Trump has room to grow, assuming his performance improves.


    Other demos raise questions about both candidates. Hillary handily beats Trump among voters under 40 as expected, but she only gets a 48% plurality rather than the commanding majority one would expect. Trump gets 5% of black voters, a terrible if not surprising performance, but Hillary “only” gets 83% rather than the mid-90s on which a Democrat can usually rely. There may be some room for Trump to grow there, assuming he orients his campaign to do so. Neither candidate gains a majority in any income bracket, and Trump only has an eight-point lead in the middle-class demo. Given the long experience voters have with Hillary Clinton as a political figure, these numbers suggest that Trump might have some upside in some surprising demos — again, assuming he can campaign to take advantage of it.


    Should this be taken seriously? It’s literally the first poll of the race in RCP’s aggregation to show Hillary with a lead, and two polls taken after both conventions (but before the Khantroversy really overshadowed the campaign) put Trump up or tied. Even if it’s legit, one can expect the race to revert more to form in the next couple of weeks, once the afterglow of the conventions fade … unless Team Trump keeps stepping on its own feet. Keep this in mind, though: of all the Deep South states, Georgia has looked the most vulnerable for some time.


    Update: Actually, Bill Clinton won Georgia in 1992 and 1996, which I had forgotten and should have checked before going off of memory. My apologies for the error.


    Updated update: Actually, he only won Georgia in 1992, not 1996. My apologies for the error in the correction to the error. Accordingly, I award myself the Monty Python Llama Award for the day:
    "We are ready for an unforeseen event that
    may or may not occur." --Al Gore, VP :swear:

  4. #1004
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    Polling Data

    Poll Date Sample MoE Trump (R) Clinton (D) Spread
    Atlanta Journal-Constitution 8/1 - 8/4 847 RV 4.0 40 44 Clinton +4
    WSB-TV/Landmark* 7/31 - 7/31 787 LV 4.0 45 45 Tie
    WXIA-TV/SurveyUSA* 7/29 - 7/31 628 LV 4.0 46 42 Trump +4
    WSB-TV/Landmark* 7/24 - 7/24 500 LV 4.4 46 44 Trump +2
    PPP (D) 5/27 - 5/30 724 RV 3.6 49 40 Trump +9
    FOX 5 Atlanta 5/15 - 5/15 587 LV 4.0 44 41 Trump +3
    Atlanta Journal-Constitution 5/9 - 5/12 822 RV 4.3 45 41 Trump +4
    WSB-TV/Landmark 5/5 - 5/5 570 LV 4.1 42 41 Trump +1
    TEGNA/SurveyUSA 2/22 - 2/23 1261 LV 2.8 50 41 Trump +9
    WXIA-TV/SurveyUSA 10/15 - 10/26 481 LV 4.0 46 37 Trump +9
    "We are ready for an unforeseen event that
    may or may not occur." --Al Gore, VP :swear:

  5. #1005
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    "We are ready for an unforeseen event that
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  6. #1006
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    "We are ready for an unforeseen event that
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    "We are ready for an unforeseen event that
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    "We are ready for an unforeseen event that
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  9. #1009
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    ‘DISGUSTING’

    01.28.16 12:15 AM ET


    Donald Trump Wanted Vets Kicked Off Fifth Avenue

    Instead of debating his presidential rivals Thursday, the GOP front runner is hosting an event ‘to raise money’ for veterans. That’s rich, say the disabled veterans he tried to eject from the street outside Trump Tower.

    Now that he has balked at facing Megyn Kelly at the Republican debate, Donald Trump will be embracing heroes.

    “[Trump] will instead host an event in Iowa to raise money for the Veterans and Wounded Warriors, who have been treated so horribly by our all talk, no action politicians,” the Trump campaign announced.

    Never mind that for more than a decade Trump sought to deprive veterans in need of their meager livelihood because he found them unsightly nuisances who should not be allowed anywhere near his gleaming headquarters on Fifth Avenue.

    The Trump who now extols veterans spent years clamoring for New York City’s politicians to take action and ban even those street vendors with special disabled veteran’s licenses from the environs of Trump Tower.

    As was reported in the New York Daily News, Trump wrote in a letter to the New York State Assembly back in 1991, “While disabled veterans should be given every opportunity to earn a living, is it fair to do so to the detriment of the city as a whole or its tax paying citizens and businesses?”

    He went on, “Do we allow Fifth Avenue, one of the world’s finest and most luxurious shopping districts, to be turned into an outdoor flea market, clogging and seriously downgrading the area?”

    He was still at it in 2004, when he wrote a letter to Mayor Mike Bloomberg.

    “Whether they are veterans or not, they [the vendors] should not be allowed to sell on this most important and prestigious shopping street,” Trump declared.

    He warned, “The image of New York City will suffer… I hope you can stop this very deplorable situation before it is too late.”

    The state Legislature had originally accorded a special vendor’s license to disabled veterans in the aftermath of the Civil War. Trump and other moneyed folks were not able to get the vendors banned, but the authorities did cap the total number of veterans with special licenses and restrict the number who could work on particular streets at a given time.

    Peddlers were largely banned from Fifth Avenue, but they continued to sell their wares on the side streets.

    On Wednesday, they included 48-year-old Sean Williams, who served in the U.S. Army from 1987 to 1992, and now sells hats and scarves on East 43rd Street, just off Fifth Avenue.

    “I was going to re-enlist, but I had kids,” he said.

    Williams has been supporting his family by peddling for the past 12 years, commencing around the time Trump wrote the mayor to say vets should not be allowed to sell on his street. Williams had no trouble characterizing Trump’s efforts.

    “Despicable,” he said. “He never served. And not his kids.”

    Williams uttered another word when he learned that Trump was using a veterans event to offset his absence from Thursday’s Republican debate.

    “Wow!”

    Two blocks uptown, at East 45th Street just off Fifth Avenue, Annette Seck was also selling hats and scarves. She served in the Army from 1980 to 1985.

    Her son, now 27, also served in the Army and was deployed to Iraq. He returned with no physical wounds.

    “He’s all right, I think,” she reported.

    She worries that the war might have had unseen effects.

    “I’m looking at him hard,” she said.

    Her other worry is the business. The hyper-luxury enterprises such as Tiffany’s might be booming, but sidewalk stands that cater to the less wealthy 99 percent are way down.

    “This is the worst year ever,” she lamented. “The money’s not there. People aren’t buying like they used to.”

    She is aware of Trump’s efforts to chase the peddlers from the street. She counts the continued presence of her and her comrades as a defeat for The Donald.

    “He lost, because of a lot of veterans in the street,” she said.

    She then pondered the possibility of victories for The Donald, not just in the primaries but in the general election.

    “If he gets elected, I’ll die,” she said simply.

    Up on East 51st Street, just off Fifth Avenue and across from St. Patrick’s Cathedral, another hat and scarf vendor had a Disabled American Veterans sign on his cart. He declined to give his name or particulars, but he was quick to offer a word of his own regarding Trump hosting a veterans event on Thursday night.

    “Disgusting.”

    He was understandably dubious of Trump’s newfound fondness for those who served.

    “Now he’s different,” the peddler said. “He’s born again.”

    The peddler did not expect that this born-again Trump would now favor allowing disabled vets to sell their wares on the golden avenue where his tower stands.

    “First class war vets, second class back-at-homes,” the peddler said.

    He then added, “Go take a picture of the planters.”

    He meant the large cement planters that Trump has placed outside the tower, not to ward off possible terrorists but to keep away peddlers.

    As has been reported by The New York Times, Trump had used somewhat smaller planters to fill a marble bench in a stretch of the lobby that was ceded to the public in exchange for him being allowed to build 20 stories higher than zoning would have otherwise allowed.

    City officials noted that the planters on the bench prevented the public from sitting there. Trump responded with a 1984 letter that presaged the ones he would write regarding disabled vet vendors.

    “We have had tremendous difficulties with respect to the bench—drug addicts, vagrants, et cetera have come to the atrium in large numbers,” Trump wrote in the letter, as cited by the Times. “Additionally, all sorts of ‘horrors’ had been taking place that effectively ruined the beautiful ambience of the space which everyone loves so much.”

    The city fined Trump, who subsequently removed the bench altogether. He replaced it with an elegant version of a hats and scarves stand such as disabled vets might set up on Fifth Avenue if they were allowed.

    “THE TRUMP STORE,” the sign reads.

    One item that no self-respecting disabled vet peddler would stock was on display on Wednesday afternoon: Trump’s book Crippled America. Vet peddlers who were crippled in service of America would likely only shake their heads on seeing the rest of the title.

    How to Make America Great Again

    One disabled veteran who has been sidelined by medical troubles in recent days is Dondi McKellar. He was in the Navy during the 1980s, serving aboard the USS Boulder. He has been selling bubble blowers in the street since 2004.

    “Everybody got their own thing, but bubbles make me happy,” he told The Daily Beast on Wednesday evening.

    McKellar is the chairman of the veterans committee at the Street Vendor’s Project and an active participant in the effort by Veterans 4 Veterans to relax current regulations. The idea is to restore fully the promise the New York state Legislature made in 1894 that disabled veterans would be free to sell goods in the street.

    “We’re part of why we have the freedom we have,” McKellar noted. “This country we served should give us the opportunity to come out and vend.”

    He wishes big-business folks were able to recognize the vendors as fellow business folks.

    “We have to start somewhere,” McKellar said.

    Meanwhile, people in New York should keep an eye out for the yellow licenses or the blue licenses that signal a vendor is a disabled veteran.

    “I would appreciate it,” McKellar said. “All my fellow veterans would as well if that would give you a reason to come over.”

    He figures we should all rejoice at the thought of disabled veterans struggling to make their way on the same block as Trump Tower.

    “It is what makes America great, we have such a great variety of everything,” McKellar said.

    He does not expect that the day will come when Trump would welcome him.


    “He wouldn’t have liked me in front of his establishment,” McKellar said.

    He suspects Trump might be that rare person who proves immune to the charm of his bubbles, which seem to make almost everybody smile.

    “If he gets upset with my bubbles…” McKellar began.

    McKellar then said, “He get upset with Megyn Kelly, so I don’t put it past him.”
    Last edited by millionairetobe71; 08-05-2016 at 05:49 PM.
    "We are ready for an unforeseen event that
    may or may not occur." --Al Gore, VP :swear:

  10. #1010
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    Trump vs. Veteran Vendors

    Trump finished construction on the 68-story Trump Tower, a retail and luxury condominium building, in 1984. The Daily News reported that several years later in 1991, Trump wrote a letter to John Dearie, then-chairman of the state Assembly Committee on Cities, advocating that the city ban vendors on Fifth Avenue, including veterans.


    “While disabled veterans should be given every opportunity to earn a living, is it fair to do so to the detriment of the city as a whole or its tax paying citizens and businesses?” Trump wrote in the letter. “Do we allow Fifth Ave., one of the world’s finest and most luxurious shopping districts, to be turned into an outdoor flea market, clogging and seriously downgrading the area?”


    The dispute was settled with a deal that restricted the number of veteran vendors allowed in midtown Manhattan and prohibited vendors on some of the most high-traffic streets, including Fifth Avenue. In exchange, the Fifth Avenue Association contributed $400,000 to veterans’ programs and agreed to offer jobs to local veterans holding a peddler’s license at that time.


    The issue arose again in 2004 when the regulations came up for renewal, and Trump continued his appeal, this time to then-Mayor Michael Bloomberg.

    “Whether they are veterans or not, [the vendors] should not be allowed to sell on this most important and prestigious shopping street,” Trump wrote to Bloomberg, the Daily Beast reported. “The image of New York City will suffer. … I hope you can stop this very deplorable situation before it is too late.”

    The Daily Beast notes that “[p]eddlers were largely banned from Fifth Avenue, but they continued to sell their wares on the side streets.” The story includes a photo of a row of planters installed in front of Trump Tower to discourage vendors from setting up shop outside his building.

    "We are ready for an unforeseen event that
    may or may not occur." --Al Gore, VP :swear:

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