Israel and Iran: the threat of receding presence or lull before the storm



Network news: It appeared an interview with a newspaper, in which he emphasized Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak said the nuclear-armed Iran could not destroy Israel. This was followed by similar public statements of the general in charge of all military operations. Even Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, a hawk now seems reluctant on the desire of his government, which alludes to it for a long time to go to war instead of seeing the enemy get the means necessary to build a bomb.

He told Channel Two television, "God forbid, there is no need to attack anything."

However, many analysts believe that the possibility of an Israeli strike against Iran's nuclear program a high probability even if were not its main ally the United States agree with that. Lieberman has returned to say that a nuclear facility has been detected recently in Iran is proof that Tehran is seeking to acquire nuclear weapons.

In contrast to that played down the Iranian Defense Minister, Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi, the credibility of the press reports that Saudi Arabia would tolerate the passage of Israeli fighter planes fly in Tel Aviv If you decide to hit Iranian nuclear facilities. Vahidi said that exclude the Saudis, who he described as "friends" of allowing "Zionist aggressor" such a thing, in response to a question about Tehran's position reports, which stated that Israel is "negotiating Saudi Arabia" to implement this plan.

Israel reconsider its warnings against Iran!

While Israeli officials insist that "all" options remain on the table to deal with arch-enemy of their country is not questioned by only a few that Barak and author of the first strategies, along with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have embraced a new way of communication with major world powers are set to revive negotiations with Tehran on Thursday .

One official said the Israelis who do not have the necessary forces to inflict lasting damage to Iran's nuclear sites are hoping to succeed in the new talks and that the failure of this will ultimately lead to military intervention led by the United States. According to Reuters.

The Israeli official, "The last thing we want to do now is to turn attention away from the diplomacy of the kind of threats that Iran could be referred to as" evidence "that they and we are not party at risk." Iran denies seeking nuclear weapons.

In 1981 Israel bombed the Iraqi nuclear reactor in 2007 launched a similar offensive against Syria. But there are indications that when it comes to Iran, the considerations of what should happen next cause for concern.

It is possible that a unilateral Israeli attack to retaliation against U.S. assets in the Gulf region that would be subject already tense relations between Netanyahu and U.S. President Barack Obama to more tension. And if Iran has stopped oil exports, Israel may find itself to blame for the new global crisis.

He says an aide to Barak said the threat of a unilateral attack against Iran outlined in the report of the United Nations condemning the outcome as the huge civilian death toll in the war waged by Israel in January, the Gaza Strip, Controlled by Hamas, an attack which it said the Jewish state it was launched to stop rocket attacks by Palestinians.

An aide to Barak, "Before the operation the message was received from many outside players including even some non-governmental organizations (admitted and do what you should do to deal with Hamas). But of course all this was forgotten as soon as the housing of dust." And added "the idea of that Israel could do his dirty work on behalf of the world are subject to serious review. continued adequate support does not exist. "

In statements made by the more-selling daily newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth, Barak said that Israel, which is supposed to be widely recognized as the only nuclear arsenal in the Middle East can deter or repel any future attack from nuclear-armed Iran.

He said, "I do not think we are on the brink of a new Holocaust," contrary to public Netanyahu repeated link between Iran and Nazi Germany on the eve of World War II.

When asked about the interview with Yedioth Ahronoth, "Netanyahu said he agreed with the view of Barak. The Prime Minister's office denied any change in Israel's strategy on Iran.

However, the issue of concern from Iran, which played like a senior retired, General Barak and former prime minister who heads the Labor Party, center-left coalition led by the right-wing Likud led by Netanyahu, must find their way to the discussions behind closed doors.

And when he was defense minister under Ehud Olmert, Netanyahu, Barak's predecessor cautious about starting a war. The Council official said cabinet at the time that Barak was opposed to an attack in 2007 which destroyed an alleged nuclear reactor, Syria, calling Palmtsra.

Barak's aides denied this, but the fact that the air strike was already at least allude to his ability to hide the differences and show support.

Is it possible for Israel to strike Iran because of nuclear concerns?

He said Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman said a nuclear facility has been detected recently in Iran, evidence that the Islamic Republic is seeking to acquire nuclear weapons. And many analysts believe that the possibility of an Israeli strike against Iran's nuclear program a high probability even if were not its main ally, the United States agree with that. The following are the circumstances of the situation, according to Reuters:

Is it possible that Israel might launch a strike on Iran?

It's high-risk gamble and involve a degree of deception. Israeli leaders have refused to rule out any option. They do not believe Iran's assertion that it wants nuclear energy only. Israel has said that Iran had reached a nuclear bomb is a threat to its existence so can not afford them, taking into account the assurances of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad repeated that Israel has no future.

But last year, it became clear that officials were drawing up plans on how Israel can live with the presence of Iran as a nuclear power in a state of mutual deterrence. The opinion poll released in June, the Israelis do not expect to launch an attack if Iran became a nuclear power.

Aides say that since Benjamin Netanyahu became prime minister in March to make an end to Iran's threats of a specific component of what he considers his personal role in Jewish history. And precedents in the history of the Jewish state, an Israeli air strike in 1981 destroyed the only nuclear reactor in Iraq, along strike in Syria in 2007 is still shrouded in mystery. In spite of official silence, there is no little doubt that Israel's possession of nuclear missiles., "Said Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak recently," Israel can destroy Iran completely. "

What may rein in Israel?

It is not clear how the definition of Israel will achieve its goal of preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. But a promise from Iran to renounce nuclear weapons and to support a form of surveillance and intelligence data may be minimal. Much will depend on the actions of Iran and the U.S. President Barack Obama and others are putting pressure on Iran through sanctions and diplomacy.

Obama called this week to announce that Iran is hidden its nuclear program or risk imposed on them so that the "painful sanctions" after the disclosure of a new station under construction south of Tehran.

While many analysts doubt the denial of the existence of Iran's military intentions, some say that Iran may be satisfied that appear in a state that had the potential to rapidly acquire nuclear weapons without arming itself already. But Israel does not seem to wish to accept this level of threat.

At the same time if I thought Israel's strike unilaterally against Iran, it will consider a number of major risks, namely:

- Retaliation not only from Iran but from allied groups such as Lebanese Hezbollah and the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas).

- Economic and diplomatic repercussions of the United States and its allies.

- The failure of the attack, which would cause the above-mentioned reactions as well.

What are the key elements in the schedule?
First Technology: Iranian national security adviser said Israel in July that Iran crossed a "red line" with respect to its ability to manufacture its own nuclear bomber, but could not produce a significant amount or put nuclear warheads on its missiles intact.

"Meir Dagan, director of the Mossad in June that Iran may have nuclear warheads valid in 2014. Dagan is seen as a key figure in Israel's policy toward Iran has been extended period of service is unusual even in 2010.

II Diplomacy: is scheduled to meet Iran in the first of October, with six world powers concerned about its nuclear plans. In May, Obama told Netanyahu that "By the end of the year," it is expected to determine whether diplomatic efforts to achieve success. In this month an official said earlier that if the West did not agree to impose crippling sanctions by the end of the year will become for Israel to launch a hit.

Russia is a major role as a permanent member of UN Security Council to enjoy the right of veto (the veto), and potential suppliers of weapons for Iran.

Is Israel would strike alone without the support of the United States?

Obama said that erupted between him and Netanyahu, a dispute over Jewish settlements in the West Bank and peace moves with the Palestinians in July he did not give Israel "absolutely" the green light to attack. He was responding to his deputy, who said that Israel has the right to act if it felt that there is a threat to its existence. Israel would not be willing to anger its main ally. Will not want to feel as Washington was surprised, but they may want assistance from the United States. But many analysts believe that Israel may attack alone.

How can the Israeli attack on Iran?

You will be announcing the attack, or hidden. Israel is seeking to develop their capacities for electronic warfare that can spoil the industrial control systems and military in Iran. There is little doubt that the attack was hidden by officers of the Mossad on the ground has its place in the plans against Iran. The advantage of doing an act of sabotage rather than the air strike, the ability to deny such action.

The Israeli army to be published the following powers:

Air Force - 500 fighter aircraft including the F-15 and F-16 West to bomb Iran as well as through the refueling in the air which is trained by the Air Force. The aircraft could be flying over the territory of hostile Arab states using technology stalking. The Air Force equipped with bombs "devastating" bunker "could be fired accurately from outside Iranian airspace. It is also assumed that Israel has dozens of Jericho missiles designed to carry conventional warheads or nuclear weapons to the Gulf. It is unlikely to do a nuclear strike on Israel but in the case of escalation of the war can not be excluded.

Ground forces - can be deployed special forces on the ground to monitor the goals and targets can also be destroyed through sabotage.

Navy - Israel launched one of three Dolphins Germany made to the Red Sea through the Suez Canal in June to open a path to the Gulf. It is believed that submarines capable of firing nuclear missiles, cruise missiles and conventional weapons.

Missile defense - Israel is to update the Arrow interceptor is backed by the United States is also expected to benefit from ships equipped with Aegis, the U.S. deployed in the Mediterranean Sea. Other elements that reinforce the alliance system of X-band radar, a U.S. based in Israel.

Scenario preemptive Israeli strikes on Iran and Jordan, the most affected

There are two scenarios and two Israelis were to attack Iranian nuclear facilities and preventive blow, but they do not Iakhluan risks, according to a report issued by the American Center for Strategic Research CSIS.

The report, which was obtained by CNN in Arabic on a copy of it, that Israel, in order to achieve its goal, need at least more than 80 fighter bombers, 30 ballistic missile "Jericho-3" of his explosive power of 750 kilograms of explosive materials .

Analysts pointed out that the CSIS in Israel to strike Iranian nuclear facilities may require dozens of American bombs, laser-guided models of the GBU-27, and GBU-28 and GBU-10, which can penetrate a layer of concrete with a thickness ranging between 1.8 - 6 meters.

The scenario that the destruction of the uranium enrichment plant located on the surface of the ground in the Isfahan region requires Israel to guide the nine bombs and to destroy the nuclear reactor at Arak four bombs and 55 bombs to destroy the uranium enrichment plant the underground plant at Natanz, that the fighter jets F -16I and F-15E transport bombs.


The first scenario 3 tracks, to guide the Israeli pre-emptive strike against Iranian nuclear facilities, and each track has its own risks.
Northern Route:

Israeli fighter jets flying along the eastern coast of the Mediterranean, then crossing over land in the area by the Turkish-Syrian border, and then Kurdish territory to reach inside Iranian territory and bombing targets.

It is expected to raise this track political risks with Syria to the absence of diplomatic relations, but it may raise the risk of moderate policy with Turkey, the same with respect to risk the military, so that there is no Syrian military installations mentioned in that region.

Path East:

Israeli fighter jets flying over Jordan, and then click the Joint Jordanian-Syrian border and then crossing the Iraqi airspace, leading to the Iranian territory, bombing of targets.

That this path to political risks, since Israel has to Jordan in case of aircraft crossing the Israeli airspace, and because it is obligated to do so because of the peace agreement between the two countries, if not already done so, they present the agreement at risk, and thus their diplomatic relations.

Jordan has refused to allow the planes to cross its airspace, and may reveal such an order in transit without the permission of the event, which puts at risk the whole process politically and militarily. Add to that Iraq will not allow Israeli planes to cross its airspace, as well as with the U.S. forces will not allow such command, given the potential difficulties caused by political, military and by troops in Iraq.
Southern Route:

The Israeli aircraft in flight over the northern regions of Saudi Arabia, and then enter the territory of Iraq, Iran, where they will be the strike, and this scenario was similar scenario had been carried out by Israel in 1981, when it bombed the Iraqi nuclear reactor, "Osirak."

Political risks posed by this path is that the United States will not allow such a risk that may endanger the relationship with Saudi Arabia to the risk, not to mention that Iraq would argue and perhaps would not allow Israeli aircraft in the airspace.

The second scenario:

Given the many risks posed by the first scenario, Israel might resort to the second scenario of bombing Iranian nuclear facilities, ballistic missile, based on the vulnerability of ballistic missile defense capabilities of Iran. The authors of the report that the Iranian air defense system is old, and consists of system "x -200" Russian "x -75" and "Tour - M 1".

However, the danger that Israel faces is the prospect of Iran's acquisition of the system "-300 o" (Triumph) S-300 PMU2, Russia, a system capable of very sophisticated with any interference or as a result of any attack on the destruction of between 20-30 per cent of the assault, which is why Israel is concerned about the possibility of Iran acquiring missile systems "X - 300" from Russia.

That the risks of this scenario will be the largest of Jordan, which will be the so-called military as "ground zero", ie, that it would be at the center of the missile war between Israel and Iran, and will receive a much bigger blow.

In another possibility the report's authors talk about the possibility of missile attack, high-resolution in this case Israel's need for up to thirty missiles of this type are distributed as follows: five missiles directed at Isfahan, Arak and three to 34 rockets to destroy Natanz, but that Israel does not have this number missiles currently, as reported by agency "RIA Novosti", which published a summary of it.

The main reason for a possible Israeli attack on Iran is the possibility of Tehran gaining a quantity of uranium and plutonium, enough to manufacture a nuclear bomb. Does not allow the military doctrine of Israel to the availability of nuclear weapons to neighboring countries.

The report said that Iran today has enough to manufacture nuclear warheads, and at least one per year. If Iran is able to implement its development of 50 thousand centrifuges at a facility, "Natanz" The plutonium reactor in the "see you" was that Iran could produce 25 or 30 nuclear munitions annually.

The report's authors believe that Iran may come to during the years 2013 and 2014, while Israeli analysts believe that the earliest date and identified in 2011.

In any case, would any assurance systems to provide Iran "x -300" to speed up Israel's strike against Iranian nuclear installations.


Iran ruled out Saudi Arabia would allow Israel to strike reactors


On the other hand played down the Iranian Defense Minister, Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi, the credibility of the press reports that Saudi Arabia "would tolerate" the passage of Israeli fighter planes in its airspace, if the Tel Aviv bomb Iranian nuclear facilities.

Vahidi said that exclude the Saudis, who he described as "friends" of allowing "Zionist aggressor", such an order, in response to a question about Tehran's position reports, which stated that Israel is "negotiating Saudi Arabia" to implement this plan. According to CNN.

Vaeedi also addressed the link between the recent Iranian war games and missile threats to the country because of the nuclear file, said that the message to Iran in the region is "a message of peace and friendship," according to Iranian news agency.

The Iranian minister, whose appointment sparked a sensation because of Argentina's claim to his arrest on suspicion of involvement in the bombing of the Jewish Center Bbions Aires in 1994, that "the response would be devastating" if some want to "launch an attack on Iran."

The newspaper "Sunday Express" has published an article talking about the meeting in London included Saudi officials and the head of the British external security, with the head of the Israeli foreign intelligence service "Mossad."

The newspaper said it had been agreed at the meeting that Saudi Arabia would tolerate in the event that the Israeli jets flying over the territory of the Kingdom in the event that Israel hit Iran's new nuclear facility in Qom.

Was quoted by Saudi Press Agency, "a Saudi official source" did not refer to the identity categorically to the health of the news.

The source added that the statement in the newspaper "is totally false in its entirety," and urged those who made it Petkveb news.

Iran warns Israel of the consequences of an attack

In the same context warned Ahmad Vahidi, Iranian Defense Minister of Israel from launching any attack on the Islamic Republic, saying it would accelerate the demise of the Jewish state.

The Vaeedi told Iranian television: "If that happens, which of course do not expect it will expedite the final result is the same for the last of the Zionist regime."

The leaders of Israel has repeatedly expressed fears Iran's nuclear ambitions and refused to rule out pre-emptive military action to prevent Iran from making nuclear arms. According to Reuters.
Ruled out Iran, which says its nuclear activities are to generate electricity for peaceful purposes, the possibility of such a strike.

A Vahidi, former commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard that if Israel launched an offensive, "the lifetime of which is now drawing to a close, will be accelerated its end." He added that the "Zionist regime", a term used to refer Iran to Israel to "the brink of destruction." Predicted Iranian President the conservative Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has repeatedly fall of Israel.