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Thread: CBI - BUY/SELL Are we reading the chart incorrectly/reversed?

  1. #101
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    Default Ahhh Steve.....

    You have to kidding.

    Sorry, he drives me around the bend pretending to be some financial guru.

    Whenever I see his posts I yawn and move on.

    Love ya Rock.



    Quote Originally Posted by darock0116 View Post
    By the time they get to you with an answer, this will all be over!!!!! I sent them an email serveral times about different topics never ever did they respond. They are too busy working on the RV to email back.:lmao: :lmao: Steve is right on with the explanation, he is very informed about the whole subject. Alot of other members are very informed. We should put this subject to rest!!!!

  2. #102
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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by coconut View Post
    I am waiting on a professional opinion - nobody here is 100%. Most are just relaying what they have been told since joining the IIF - which may or may not be correct.

    Sorry people but I want to know 100% either way and finish this off.

    I will post when the Bank(s) get back to me on this.
    Thats a great idea!
    When you get the "professional" opinion please let us know who it is and what they said then we can put it all to rest! and perhaps the MOD(s) can put it on a locked sticky on this section (if we all argree). yes?

  3. #103
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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by coconut View Post
    You have to kidding.

    Sorry, he drives me around the bend pretending to be some financial guru.

    Whenever I see his posts I yawn and move on.

    Love ya Rock.
    Thanks for the love coconut. Steve does have some good insight. It is matter of opinion. I hope they email you back with a response, I would loved to hear their explanation.:D
    "Crush me" Dave Matthews

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  4. #104
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    Default

    Coconut .. have you NOT read this post?

    Quote Originally Posted by SmoothOperator View Post
    What chart are you talking about?
    are you talking about the rate table
    Exchange Rates

    So you're confused as to the RATE
    "Auction price selling dinar / US $ 1292"

    Yes .. you're right .. in ENGLISH .. this means .. SELL dinar .. the question is WHO does this apply to ...You're arguing that it is the CBI that is selling DINARs at this rate of 1292 ..

    Well a couple of things:

    Firstly .. If this is true .. that the CBI is Selling Dinars at this RATE .. lets look at an easy example ...

    BANK has 1 Million USD ... goes to Auction .. the exchange rate the CBI is selling dinars according you is 1292 .. so the BANK walks away with 1,292Million Dinars ... straight away .. the SAME DAY .. that BANK could then SELL those DINARS BACK to the CBI at the rate of 1290 (because once again according to you .. this must be the RATE the CBI is buying DINARS) .... therefore the BANK has MADE 2 MILLION DINARs for FREE !!!!
    Let me know when you set up a foreign exchange company .. I'll be your BEST CLIENT !!!

    the BANK could therefore, according to your "stupid" argument .. continue to MAKE MONEY every auction ... ALL THE TIME ..

    Sorry buddy .. YOU ARE WRONG WRONG WRONG .. get over it .. start trying to figure out WHY it's the other way ...

    Your points are valid and your reasoning sound .. BUT .. it is incorrect ...

    Another point you have to consider (for your argument) .. WHERE are the BANKs getting ALL THESE USDs from to convert to IQDs .. deposits from Iraqis ? ... I don't think so. .... Foreign Investors ... impossible .. considering the FIL is not fully operational ... .. tell me where the BANKs are getting their 100 Million USDs from ?



    "Rebuilding Iraq through Capital Investment"

  5. #105
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    Default For the record...

    I appreciate everyones' involvement on this issue - this is has been a great "fair" debate.

    Some of you report back with such conviction that I am almost convinced I am incorrect. With that being said I still want to get 100% proof that this is the case (CBI buying Dinar back not firing it back out).

    I respect everyones' opinion here - please respect what I am after as well - the final truth of this matter.

    Thank you very much to all who participated on this thread - even you too Steve with your nasty comments.

    Good luck and good night.


    Quote Originally Posted by SmoothOperator View Post
    Coconut .. have you NOT read this post?

  6. #106
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    Thumbs down

    Quote Originally Posted by CaddieMan View Post
    I e-mailed the CBI on this very subject about 4 months ago..........Got no response what so ever. Maybe you will have better luck! Let us know C-Nut!
    Well if this happens again, this thread will go on forever...:lmao:

    In a senate hearing, Nelson Rockefeller was questioned. "Mr. Rockefeller, how much money did you make last year? Oh, 650 million or thereabouts. How much tax did you pay on that? Oh, I don't pay any taxes. How is that possible Mr. Rockefeller? His answer? I don't own any of it." Access without Ownership & Equity without Liability, legally.

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  7. #107
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    Quote Originally Posted by sgmunson View Post
    If you're going to just pick and choose among the logic and reason presented, arbitrarily, then you're chance of gaining anything from this forum is exactly 50/50,but since you're unwilling to follow logic and reason, I'd have to lower that estimate to zero.
    :lmao: lol

  8. #108
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    Default New Thread

    Case is now closed - see new thread.

    With thanks to many here.


    Quote Originally Posted by MidwestBoy View Post
    :lmao: lol

  9. #109
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    Default

    This case is not closed until two things happens:

    1- The CBI contact you with an answer - (seems then like this thread will be alive forever and ever and ever and ever and ever and ever and ever...(you get the point)

    2- The MODS close this thread....


    Which one will occurr first?

    MTB71
    "We are ready for an unforeseen event that
    may or may not occur." --Al Gore, VP :swear:

  10. #110
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    Default

    lower is better 1290 is actuaqlly higher than 1292

  11. #111
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    Question Oh My

    I am somewhat confused, but I will listen to everyone, and understand. So what is the dinar to the american dollar? If had 12,000 dinar what is it worth in US dollar?

    And if it did go up where the heck would you exchange it?

  12. #112
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    Quote Originally Posted by archide View Post
    I am somewhat confused, but I will listen to everyone, and understand. So what is the dinar to the american dollar? If had 12,000 dinar what is it worth in US dollar?

    And if it did go up where the heck would you exchange it?

    Two bags of Chips mate.
    ! I did what others Won't, So i can do what others Can't !!

  13. #113
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    Default

    What kind of chips bear? Jay's, frito's, tostito's

  14. #114
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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by archide View Post
    What kind of chips bear? Jay's, frito's, tostito's
    Buffalo...
    'The trouble with our liberal friends is not that they're ignorant; it's just that they know so much that isn't so.' - Ronald Reagan

  15. #115
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pindar View Post
    I don't think the Bank of Canada is a good analogy because the CAD is traded on the Forex...the Forex makes the market for CAD, not Canada (of course Canada can influence the value of the CAD by monetary policy.) However, it is the CBI which makes the market for the IQD. And since the USD is the world's most dominant currency and is important in Iraq's economy (especially importers and the Ministry of Oil), the CBI makes the market for IQD in USD (and maybe others, I don't know.)

    And I never said the CBI primarily deals with USD. Just because they make the market for IQD in USD doesn't mean the CBI deals only with USD. Obviously the IQD and monetary policy are central to their focus.


    Not only does the CBI have more IQD lying around than any other currency, so does the population. They both have many trillions (trillions!) No matter what the CBI's objectives are, IQD is (at least officially) only traded within Iraq. Foreign purchases need to be made in other currencies, especially the USD. Iraqi commerce (i.e. importers) must have USD. A primary source for that is the CBI auctions. By the CBI selling that USD to banks (effectively to importers) that USD doesn't stay in the economy. It is paid to foreign companies for goods. In that process the USD in Iraqi circulation is converted to goods that then move back and forth in the Iraqi economy in exchange for IQD.


    I suspect that most Iraqi's are focused on day to day commerce, not making currency investments. And most companies are in the business of buying and selling goods and services, not making currency investments. The majority of the population is living hand to mouth, effectively trying to make it to the end of the month. Most people are going to find it very hard to put the few IQD they have in their pocket under the mattress instead of buying food and other goods...goods that are bought by the importers with USD.

    The CBI is trying to raise the value of the dinar. Once they do that it will take a lot fewer dinar in circulation to equal the same value as the dinar that is currently in circulation. So taking dinar out of circulation doesn't make the economy less based on dinar, it makes it more based on dinar.

    I'm sure a certain amount of local transactions are made using USD, but I'm also sure that the large majority of currency in circulation over there is dinar. Those trillions of Dinar is a humongus amount of currency, and there are only a few tens of millions of Iraqis, and most of them are poor. All those notes must be somewhere! I just don't see most Iraqis walking around with mostly USD in their pockets and throwing their dinar in a jar on their dresser like some of us do pennies.
    Totally agree, which is why I think it will take several years to RV,
    A few years ago, billionaire Warren Buffett advised "Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful."

  16. #116
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    Default IMF Report, thought you guys would like to know

    Quote Originally Posted by Pindar View Post
    To carry my previous thought just a little further...

    Most Iraqis are walking around with dinar in their pockets, not USD. Sure they might want more dinar (to buy food if nothing else), but they don't have the USD to get more of it.

    There is an understandable bias on IIF that the dinar is a great and obvious investment opportunity...the kind that comes along once in a lifetime. So we tend to think that others think the same as we do. But it's important to remember that we are in the great minority. The very large majority of investors see the dinar as a laughable investment whose risk is astronomical...something they wouldn't touch with a ten-foot pole.

    And sure there are probably some Iraqis who dream of the day when their country will be great again...even greater...when it's currency will rank with the likes of the USD. But right now the blood is flowing in the streets (at least in Baghdad and the Anbar province.) To the average Iraqi it must look like the country is convulsing with hatred, horrific torture, and revenge killings spiraling hopelessly out of control. Who in that kind of environment can have such confidence that this will turn out ok? I'm sure there are some, but the large majority must be very discouraged and not just trying to make ends meet by the end of the month, but to just survive until the end of the month.

    And major factions seem to be much more focused on grabbing oil-rich regions and shares of oil-profits than they are currency investments.

    Pindar
    This article may help us understand what needs to occur in Iraq to stablize the economy, controlthe value of the Dinar and bring the Oil reserves into play especially in dealing with its value to the dinar, its from May'07 on the IMF website:

    RESOURCES FOR RECONSTRUCTION
    Iraq Moves to Stabilize, Reform Economy

    By Erik de Vrijer, Edward Gemayel, and Udo Kock
    IMF Middle East and Central Asia Department

    May 7, 2007
    • Iraq entering crucial period in its economic stabilization
    • Continued violence hampering recovery
    • Strong policy response to sharp jump in inflation

    When the IMF Executive Board approved a 15-month, precautionary Stand-By Arrangement for Iraq in December 2005, the country set out on a broad economic reform program.
    Under the program, the government aimed to rebuild the oil sector, which represents two-thirds of Iraq's GDP; gradually reduce pervasive and inefficient subsidies while making more resources available to improve such public services as infrastructure, education, health care, and security; and keep the Iraqi dinar broadly stable against the U.S. dollar as an anchor for macroeconomic stability. Fifteen months later, in March 2007, the IMF reviewed Iraq's reform program. Here we assess how the economy has fared.
    Oil sector
    The unforeseen deterioration in the security situation, especially in the second half of 2006, resulted in a dramatic increase in human suffering and the displacement of large numbers of people. The authorities have also struggled to maintain macroeconomic stability and create the conditions for sustainable growth over the medium term.
    In 2006, the authorities put in place a budget that aimed to control the growth of current spending and reduce fuel subsidies so that they could concentrate resources on reconstruction, in particular in the oil sector. Despite very difficult circumstances, they largely succeeded in achieving several of their goals.
    However, because of the prevailing violence, weak implementation capacity, and difficulties with procuring oil-related investment goods in a tight world market, the investment execution rate was only about 40 percent. Although the government had an overall budget surplus of about 11 percent of GDP, this came at the expense of much-needed investment, especially in the oil sector.
    The lack of investment prevented an expansion of oil output, which remained unchanged from the previous year at about 2 million barrels a day. Real GDP growth, which was initially projected at more than 10 percent, ended the year at only 3 percent.
    Ambitious reform program
    To spur Iraq's transition to a market economy, the authorities also embarked on an ambitious agenda of structural reforms. In the fiscal area, they introduced a modern financial management information system, and the Iraqi parliament is reviewing amendments to make the pension law sustainable. Because of the lack of security and capacity constraints, some other measures were delayed. These include a census of public service employees and the adoption of a new budget classification system, in line with IMF guidelines.
    In the financial sector, the authorities, with assistance from the IMF, set up a modern payment system and initiated an overhaul of the central bank's accounting, reporting, and auditing systems. Simultaneously, they are working on restructuring the state-owned banks and on implementing a new banking supervisory system.
    Oil sector reforms included enacting legislation to liberalize the imports of fuel products; approval by the Council of Ministers of a much-needed draft hydrocarbon law; and, starting this year, elimination of all direct budgetary fuel subsidies, except on kerosene.
    Unwelcome development
    However, a surprise jump in inflation from 32 percent at end-2005 to 65 percent a year later raised serious concerns (see Chart 1). The increase was caused mainly by shortages of key commodities, especially fuel products, which were largely the result of the continuing lack of security in Iraq. In a recent poll, 62 percent of Iraqi respondents complained about the availability of basic household goods, up from 38 percent in 2005.
    But underlying inflation (excluding fuel and transportation costs) was also stubbornly high, at about 30 percent. Given that the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) maintained a tight grip on Iraqi dinars in circulation while the budget was in surplus, the high inflation appears to have been accommodated by the pervasive cash dollarization of the economy.
    In mid-November 2006, the authorities initiated a strong policy response to the inflationary pressures. One of the objectives of the government budget for 2007 was to prevent current spending from putting further inflationary pressure on the small non-oil economy. The CBI, meanwhile, raised its policy interest rates sharply and allowed the dinar to appreciate against the dollar, which was possible in view of Iraq's comfortable level of international reserves (almost six months of import cover).
    These measures were intended to dedollarize the economy to enhance the CBI's control over monetary conditions and also to reduce imported inflation. This policy appears to have had some success in increasing the demand for local currency. Moreover, in February 2007, overall inflation came down to 37 percent, and core inflation fell to 24 percent. Similar rates of inflation were recorded for March. But it is too soon to declare victory over inflation.

    Fuel price adjustments
    Despite strong initial political resistance, the authorities began in December 2005 to increase fuel prices gradually. Before the adjustments, fuel prices were extremely low, even by regional standards, with regular gasoline selling in Baghdad for 3 cents a liter and, outside the capital, for less than half that price. But fuel shortages worsened and inflation increased during 2006, making it an urgent priority to ease supply bottlenecks in the fuel market.
    The authorities took action on two fronts: first, raising the price of fuel products to reduce the incentive for smuggling; and second, allowing the private sector to import fuel products. By March 2007, the prices of regular and premium gasoline were near the average levels in other oil-exporting countries in the Middle East and North Africa, and prices for diesel exceeded the regional average (see Chart 2).

    One important outcome of the price increases was a reduction in budgetary subsidies, which allowed budgetary resources to be shifted to priority public services. Despite the increases, official fuel prices are still lower than the black market prices that most people have to pay. By and large, Iraqis seem to have largely accepted the higher prices because they consider it more important to have a regular supply of fuel.
    With the passage of new legislation last October to allow private fuel imports, the increase in fuel prices is expected to make it more attractive for the private sector to become active in this area. It is hoped that better fuel availability in 2007 would help reduce black market prices and ease inflationary pressures.
    The way forward
    Iraq is entering a crucial period in its economic stabilization and recovery. Over the past 15 months, encouraging progress was made in strengthening economic policies and implementing structural reforms. However, much remains to be done. In the period ahead, the economic policy framework supported by the Stand-By Arrangement will also contribute to the International Compact with Iraq. It is hoped that this new partnership with the international community will help improve the political and security situation, which is essential to securing Iraq's future economic development.
    A few years ago, billionaire Warren Buffett advised "Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful."

  17. #117
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    Default Clarification taken from the IMF site 08/28/07

    I hope this will clarify for any of those still wondering which column represents the buying and selling of dinar by the CBI. Follow the 28 August news and then the free text link. I have tried to provide the links, sometimes they don't work. Go dinar!
    http://www.imf.org/external/country/IRQ/index.htm
    http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat...cfm?sk=21290.0
    http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/...07/cr07294.pdf

    P.S. Sorry, that would be on page 8 of the last link.

  18. #118
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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by NewTexasgold View Post
    This article may help us understand what needs to occur in Iraq to stablize the economy, controlthe value of the Dinar and bring the Oil reserves into play especially in dealing with its value to the dinar, its from May'07 on the IMF website:

    RESOURCES FOR RECONSTRUCTION
    Iraq Moves to Stabilize, Reform Economy

    By Erik de Vrijer, Edward Gemayel, and Udo Kock
    IMF Middle East and Central Asia Department

    May 7, 2007
    • Iraq entering crucial period in its economic stabilization
    • Continued violence hampering recovery
    • Strong policy response to sharp jump in inflation

    When the IMF Executive Board approved a 15-month, precautionary Stand-By Arrangement for Iraq in December 2005, the country set out on a broad economic reform program.
    Under the program, the government aimed to rebuild the oil sector, which represents two-thirds of Iraq's GDP; gradually reduce pervasive and inefficient subsidies while making more resources available to improve such public services as infrastructure, education, health care, and security; and keep the Iraqi dinar broadly stable against the U.S. dollar as an anchor for macroeconomic stability. Fifteen months later, in March 2007, the IMF reviewed Iraq's reform program. Here we assess how the economy has fared.
    Oil sector
    The unforeseen deterioration in the security situation, especially in the second half of 2006, resulted in a dramatic increase in human suffering and the displacement of large numbers of people. The authorities have also struggled to maintain macroeconomic stability and create the conditions for sustainable growth over the medium term.
    In 2006, the authorities put in place a budget that aimed to control the growth of current spending and reduce fuel subsidies so that they could concentrate resources on reconstruction, in particular in the oil sector. Despite very difficult circumstances, they largely succeeded in achieving several of their goals.
    However, because of the prevailing violence, weak implementation capacity, and difficulties with procuring oil-related investment goods in a tight world market, the investment execution rate was only about 40 percent. Although the government had an overall budget surplus of about 11 percent of GDP, this came at the expense of much-needed investment, especially in the oil sector.
    The lack of investment prevented an expansion of oil output, which remained unchanged from the previous year at about 2 million barrels a day. Real GDP growth, which was initially projected at more than 10 percent, ended the year at only 3 percent.
    Ambitious reform program
    To spur Iraq's transition to a market economy, the authorities also embarked on an ambitious agenda of structural reforms. In the fiscal area, they introduced a modern financial management information system, and the Iraqi parliament is reviewing amendments to make the pension law sustainable. Because of the lack of security and capacity constraints, some other measures were delayed. These include a census of public service employees and the adoption of a new budget classification system, in line with IMF guidelines.
    In the financial sector, the authorities, with assistance from the IMF, set up a modern payment system and initiated an overhaul of the central bank's accounting, reporting, and auditing systems. Simultaneously, they are working on restructuring the state-owned banks and on implementing a new banking supervisory system.
    Oil sector reforms included enacting legislation to liberalize the imports of fuel products; approval by the Council of Ministers of a much-needed draft hydrocarbon law; and, starting this year, elimination of all direct budgetary fuel subsidies, except on kerosene.
    Unwelcome development
    However, a surprise jump in inflation from 32 percent at end-2005 to 65 percent a year later raised serious concerns (see Chart 1). The increase was caused mainly by shortages of key commodities, especially fuel products, which were largely the result of the continuing lack of security in Iraq. In a recent poll, 62 percent of Iraqi respondents complained about the availability of basic household goods, up from 38 percent in 2005.
    But underlying inflation (excluding fuel and transportation costs) was also stubbornly high, at about 30 percent. Given that the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) maintained a tight grip on Iraqi dinars in circulation while the budget was in surplus, the high inflation appears to have been accommodated by the pervasive cash dollarization of the economy.
    In mid-November 2006, the authorities initiated a strong policy response to the inflationary pressures. One of the objectives of the government budget for 2007 was to prevent current spending from putting further inflationary pressure on the small non-oil economy. The CBI, meanwhile, raised its policy interest rates sharply and allowed the dinar to appreciate against the dollar, which was possible in view of Iraq's comfortable level of international reserves (almost six months of import cover).
    These measures were intended to dedollarize the economy to enhance the CBI's control over monetary conditions and also to reduce imported inflation. This policy appears to have had some success in increasing the demand for local currency. Moreover, in February 2007, overall inflation came down to 37 percent, and core inflation fell to 24 percent. Similar rates of inflation were recorded for March. But it is too soon to declare victory over inflation.

    Fuel price adjustments
    Despite strong initial political resistance, the authorities began in December 2005 to increase fuel prices gradually. Before the adjustments, fuel prices were extremely low, even by regional standards, with regular gasoline selling in Baghdad for 3 cents a liter and, outside the capital, for less than half that price. But fuel shortages worsened and inflation increased during 2006, making it an urgent priority to ease supply bottlenecks in the fuel market.
    The authorities took action on two fronts: first, raising the price of fuel products to reduce the incentive for smuggling; and second, allowing the private sector to import fuel products. By March 2007, the prices of regular and premium gasoline were near the average levels in other oil-exporting countries in the Middle East and North Africa, and prices for diesel exceeded the regional average (see Chart 2).

    One important outcome of the price increases was a reduction in budgetary subsidies, which allowed budgetary resources to be shifted to priority public services. Despite the increases, official fuel prices are still lower than the black market prices that most people have to pay. By and large, Iraqis seem to have largely accepted the higher prices because they consider it more important to have a regular supply of fuel.
    With the passage of new legislation last October to allow private fuel imports, the increase in fuel prices is expected to make it more attractive for the private sector to become active in this area. It is hoped that better fuel availability in 2007 would help reduce black market prices and ease inflationary pressures.
    The way forward
    Iraq is entering a crucial period in its economic stabilization and recovery. Over the past 15 months, encouraging progress was made in strengthening economic policies and implementing structural reforms. However, much remains to be done. In the period ahead, the economic policy framework supported by the Stand-By Arrangement will also contribute to the International Compact with Iraq. It is hoped that this new partnership with the international community will help improve the political and security situation, which is essential to securing Iraq's future economic development.
    All this, but most of all, SECURITY, SECURITY, SECURITY. Our daily operations would definitely be hampered by daily bombings, IED's, and assasinations. Above all Securtity is necessary if the country is to succeed. They need our help. Support your soldiers. Support your president.
    Last edited by Rick67; 08-28-2007 at 09:26 PM. Reason: accentuate the statement

  19. #119
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rick67 View Post
    I hope this will clarify for any of those still wondering which column represents the buying and selling of dinar by the CBI. Follow the 28 August news and then the free text link. I have tried to provide the links, sometimes they don't work. Go dinar!
    http://www.imf.org/external/country/IRQ/index.htm
    http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat...cfm?sk=21290.0
    http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/...07/cr07294.pdf

    P.S. Sorry, that would be on page 8 of the last link.

  20. #120
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rick67 View Post
    All this, but most of all, SECURITY, SECURITY, SECURITY. Our daily operations would definitely be hampered by daily bombings, IED's, and assasinations. Above all Securtity is necessary if the country is to succeed. They need our help. Support your soldiers. Support your president.
    Totally agree with that!!!!!!!!! :D
    A few years ago, billionaire Warren Buffett advised "Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful."

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