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Thread: Possible IMF speak for RV

  1. #1
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    Smile Possible IMF speak for RV

    I got an email notification from the IMF at 4:45 pm on Friday, regarding additional information on the recent Article IV consultations with Iraq. Embedded in one was a curious statement.
    (Remember, Fiat Currencies do not have to be backed 100%)
    In principle,the CBI reserves would be enough to cover the complete Dollarization of the economy".

    If the IMF feels this is true, then the inverse must also be true, the CBI reserves must be enough to cover complete de-dollarization, equality. Those of us who've been around long enough, know that the goal is de-dollarization, both in Iraq, and the IMF.
    There are two IMF documents that were released on their homepage on Friday, the statement I referenced is in document CR13217.PDF

    $

  2. #2
    Supporter and Investor! haggisbasher's Avatar
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    I say that the IMF and a hand full of international power houses just waiting to get in to Iraq and are going to force the CBI & Maliki's hand very soon with the IQD, very encouraging read.
    BAM and its on the Forex as a fully floating currency after a very quick reval.

  3. #3
    Supporter and Investor! millionairetobe71's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dollarsign View Post
    I got an email notification from the IMF at 4:45 pm on Friday, regarding additional information on the recent Article IV consultations with Iraq. Embedded in one was a curious statement.
    (Remember, Fiat Currencies do not have to be backed 100%)
    In principle,the CBI reserves would be enough to cover the complete Dollarization of the economy".

    If the IMF feels this is true, then the inverse must also be true, the CBI reserves must be enough to cover complete de-dollarization, equality. Those of us who've been around long enough, know that the goal is de-dollarization, both in Iraq, and the IMF.
    There are two IMF documents that were released on their homepage on Friday, the statement I referenced is in document CR13217.PDF

    $
    Do you have the link to the document? I would like to read it.....otherwise, it sounds like we will be waiting for a much longer time phase
    .....
    "We are ready for an unforeseen event that
    may or may not occur." --Al Gore, VP :swear:

  4. #4
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    Nice find dollarsign we shall wait, hope all is well with you. can you add a little more of what you might think is happening and your personal opinion
    Last edited by ETA; 02-08-2014 at 12:28 AM.

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by millionairetobe71 View Post
    Do you have the link to the document? I would like to read it.....otherwise, it sounds like we will be waiting for a much longer time phase
    .....

    Here you go
    http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/...13/cr13217.pdf

    EB
    A day without laughter is a day wasted: Charlie Chaplin. :cheeky-smiley-025: :yelrotflmao:

    NO RV TODAY! MAYBE TOMMOROW! :shhh:

  6. #6
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    Page 33/34

    Skipping through this document does not give me a warm fuzzy feeling there are allot of negatives in this document.



    Monetary measures: Particularly in countries with open capital accounts, the reserve
    coverage of the monetary base is useful to reflect the foreign exchange demand
    potentially arising from the conversion of commercial bank deposits. The coverage of
    foreign exchange deposits indicates the capacity to meet the banking system’s liquidity
    needs in case of a crisis. In Iraq, owing to the high level of reserves and the limited financial development, end-2012 CBI net foreign exchange reserves covered 122 percent of
    reserve money and 104 percent of broad money, or approximately four times foreign
    exchange deposits. In principle, therefore, the CBI reserves would be enough to cover the
    complete dollarization of the economy. Additionally, a large part of deposits are owned by
    government agencies and state-owned enterprises, making them less vulnerable to
    confidence crises.

    Exchange rate developments and assessment
    7. The real effective exchange rate has appreciated over the last three years. Since the
    2009 Article IV consultation (from end-2009 to end-2012), the real and nominal effective exchange
    rates have appreciated 12 and 7 percent respectively. Higher inflation in Iraq relative to its trading
    partners has contributed to a 5 percent real appreciation over this period. As a result of this
    dynamics, the real effective exchange rate was at end-2012 at about the level of end-2008. With the
    central bank the main source of funds to the foreign exchange market, foreign exchange auction
    regulations have led to a widening of the spread between the official and parallel foreign exchange
    rates from mid-2011 onwards. Using parallel market foreign exchange rates, the real appreciation
    from end-2009 to end-2012 was 8 percent. The share of foreign currency transacted on the parallel
    market has varied over time, but it is likely to be relatively small. The weighted real effective
    exchange rate is therefore likely to be closer to the rate based on the official exchange rate than that
    based on the parallel market exchange rate.



    EB
    A day without laughter is a day wasted: Charlie Chaplin. :cheeky-smiley-025: :yelrotflmao:

    NO RV TODAY! MAYBE TOMMOROW! :shhh:

  7. #7
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    10. The external sustainability approach confirms the broad alignment of the exchange
    rate with fundamentals. Estimates using this methodology suggest that the current account
    norm is a surplus of 3 percent of GDP. In comparison, under the staff’s baseline medium term
    baseline projection, the average current account surplus is 4 percent of GDP. Therefore, the
    estimated undervaluation of the real exchange rate is close to 10 percent. Given the large
    margins of errors, these calculations suggest that the real exchange rate is in line with economic
    fundamentals.
    A day without laughter is a day wasted: Charlie Chaplin. :cheeky-smiley-025: :yelrotflmao:

    NO RV TODAY! MAYBE TOMMOROW! :shhh:

  8. #8
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    11. In the medium term, the increase in
    oil revenues might lead to an appreciation
    of the real exchange rate. In the short run, a
    major determinant of the real exchange rate is
    the international price of oil. During 2009 the
    oil price collapse forced a depreciation of the
    real exchange rate. As oil prices subsequently
    recovered, so did the real exchange rate. In a
    medium term perspective, the real exchange
    rate is also heavily influenced by the level of oil
    production in addition to the international oil
    price. As oil production is currently ramping up,
    the equilibrium real exchange rate may be appreciating notwithstanding the weakening of oil
    prices. On the other hand, the current spread between the official and parallel exchange rates
    may be suggestive of underlying fragilities that could warrant a real depreciation of the official rate.
    A day without laughter is a day wasted: Charlie Chaplin. :cheeky-smiley-025: :yelrotflmao:

    NO RV TODAY! MAYBE TOMMOROW! :shhh:

  9. #9
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    Staff assessment: High
    - Large increases in current
    spending would lead to
    monetary financing of the
    fiscal deficit and use of
    central bank reserves for
    fiscal purposes (which is
    currently forbidden by law),
    and possibly higher inflation
    and currency depreciation.
    - Intervention in foreign
    exchange auctions results in
    a shortage of foreign
    exchange and lack of
    confidence in the CBI’s
    ability to support the
    exchange rate which
    ultimately would lead to
    pressures to depreciate the
    dinar.
    A day without laughter is a day wasted: Charlie Chaplin. :cheeky-smiley-025: :yelrotflmao:

    NO RV TODAY! MAYBE TOMMOROW! :shhh:

  10. #10
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    Staff assessment: High
    - As oil revenues account for
    over 90 percent of
    government revenues, a
    sharp decline in oil prices
    results in lower fiscal
    revenues.
    - A fiscal crisis may ensue in
    case the government does
    not cut spending and may
    lead to an exchange rate
    depreciation.
    A day without laughter is a day wasted: Charlie Chaplin. :cheeky-smiley-025: :yelrotflmao:

    NO RV TODAY! MAYBE TOMMOROW! :shhh:

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