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Thread: Can You Imagine Whats Gonna Happen

  1. #1
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    Default Can You Imagine Whats Gonna Happen

    Can You imagine the ripple effect of the US Economy if the dinar opens at ONE CENT, FIVE or TEN CENTS

  2. #2
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    not too much really only a small portion is invested in dinar no?
    Weston~
    Vancouver, Canada

    Money frees you from doing things you dislike,
    Since I dislike nearly everything, money is handy
    Groucho Marx (1890 - 1977)

  3. #3
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    Default Not necessarily

    There is a ripple effect on the economy that extends out 3-4 times. In other words, for every $1,000,000 spent, it can be argued the economy is affected $3-4,000,000 dollars. This is due to the spending habits of people down the line from the original dollar spent. Will it be very dramatic in the U.S.? Doubtful, but it certainly will have an impact. Especially if it ever climbs into the $.50-$1.00 range.
    "Greater love hath no man than one who would lay down his life for his friends". Jesus Christ

    "Some people spend an entire lifetime wondering if they made a difference. The Marines don't have that problem". President Ronald Reagan-1985

    "While I may not gain the favor of men, I shall fly my colors, with righteous indignation". Me

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by Weston
    not too much really only a small portion is invested in dinar no?
    HARDLY a small portion, Corporations, Banks, Cities, The 5 Bil that is to be deposited to the NY Federal Reserve came from the sale of dinars

    Not what I'd call a small portion

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    Quote Originally Posted by John M.
    I am trying to imagine the Bunge that my boss's panties will be in when it hits $.30 and I quit!!! :D
    I cant wait to tell my boss to stick his lousy job where the sun dont shine...

    Ooops, sorry I'm self employed

    :lmao:

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by DINAR_TIME
    HARDLY a small portion, Corporations, Banks, Cities, The 5 Bil that is to be deposited to the NY Federal Reserve came from the sale of dinars

    Not what I'd call a small portion



    isnt that 5 Billion...Central Bank which they sold to alwarka etc...tho I guess the FEd Res will use that 5bil to invest in?
    Weston~
    Vancouver, Canada

    Money frees you from doing things you dislike,
    Since I dislike nearly everything, money is handy
    Groucho Marx (1890 - 1977)

  7. #7
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    Default

    On a macro-scale, probably not as much as you think.

    If there are 5 billion dinar in the hands of Americans, and it opens at $0.10 you have $500 million now added to the economy. (Just a guess)

    Walmart alone, in their online division only, the day after Thanksgiving did $100 million in volume. (Don't quote me exactly on that)

    That's just one company in one industry on one day. (Not considering the ripple, or trickle down, effects, which can make it 4-5 times that)

    Now, on a micro-scale, probably a lot more. For instance, the GDP of my household will go up astronomically! Wooo Hooo!

  8. #8
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    Default to Dinar_Time

    "Can You imagine the ripple effect of the US Economy if the dinar opens at ONE CENT, FIVE or TEN CENTS"

    Great headline and thought, I can imagine myself rippling on down to the bank and making a transaction so big it makes all the tellers puke. :o

    Imagine the pent up buying desire of 25 mil people who have been through what these poor souls have. If they get credit cards and Ebay they are in big trouble!

    My wife was making fun of me when I told her about dinars.

    was her answer.

    I reminded her of people who bought Ebay for a few dollars each then watched it split repeatedly while gaining huge value per share...they got rich.

    Never say never, dream on till your dreams come true.

  9. #9
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    Default misinformation

    Quote Originally Posted by DINAR_TIME
    HARDLY a small portion, Corporations, Banks, Cities, The 5 Bil that is to be deposited to the NY Federal Reserve came from the sale of dinars

    Not what I'd call a small portion
    where does it say on these reports that the 5 Bil USD came from the sale of Iraqi dinars??

    update 1-
    http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsAr...toryID=7568571

    Update-2
    http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsAr...toryID=7570941

    clearly states;

    "He said that the dollars had been accumulated by the Iraqis since the creation of the new Iraqi dinar and not sold to them by Washington."

    since the creation of the Iraqi dinar
    not
    from the sale of Iraqi dinar


    JeffP
    "Share what you know,Know what you share"

  10. #10
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    Default Macro economic scale...

    To give you some idea - let's suppose the Dinar ends up at a good clip - say... a quarter. On the ForEx, the average trade volume is 1.9 Trillion US dollar equivalents. Trillion with a "T". Even a twenty billion dollar influx to the Dinar amounts to a pittance compared to the size of the overall market.

    20 billion would be 1.05% of that day's volume. That's 20,000 millionaires created on 1.05% of one day's ForEx trade. Iraq being new on that day, I don't think them taking 1.05% of the market is "un-possible" (sharing my public education level english). ;) Volume fluctuates between the currencies, and a big announcement will increase volume, even temporarily.

    I consider this venture plausible mostly because of that existing institution. Any company who gets another contract in Iraq buys Iraqi currency, creating that much more of a shortcoming in the market, thus driving prices up.

    Add to it: Iraq has determined that foreign investors can buy shares in local firms, much as they can in the US (Japanese citizens are allowed to hold 2000 shares of IBM, for instance...)

    Consider this: You're the Saudi Royal family. In between the harem dances, oil baths and other activities, you decide you want to take a piece of the emerging oil rival. What would you do? Buy shares in Iraqi oil companies. To do so, you're essentially changing your currency for Dinars, and buying shares from someone else who owns said shares. You've essentially put your foreign currency inside the country of Iraq for it to do good things... in exchange for a portion of any given company. A share of an Iraqi company purchased by foreign currency props up and solidifies the Iraqi Dinar.

    I think there's a lot of room for us to be wrong as well, but to say this is a totally ficticious opportunity in the next decade... well... I think that presumes you know the future. If people are sure Iraqi Dinars are a bad (albeit "high risk") investment, I'd like to know what their track record on picking out what days it will rain.

    Lets just say, I like to think there are always... possibilities.

    Shea

  11. #11
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    Default

    Assuming this is correct, it may clear things up a bit.

    http://www.hispanicbusiness.com/news...d.asp?id=20833

    February 8, 2005
    BAGHDAD, Feb 8 (AFP) - The Iraqi central bank has built up five billion dollars in reserves in recent months which have been deposited with the US Federal Reserve, a top US treasury official said Tuesday.

    The sum will earn the Iraqi government about 100 million dollars of much needed interest each year, John Taylor, US treasury under secretary for international affairs, told a press conference after talks with Iraqi officials.

    The money has been placed with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Taylor said the five billion dollars had built up from the currency transactions since the introduction of the new Iraqi dinar.

    He said he had discussed the importance of improving Iraq's banking system by developing electronic payments -- Iraqis still rely heavily on cash -- and to help the private sector to borrow money.

    Iraqi authorities also had to set up financing for housing mortgages, he
    added.

    While acknowledging Iraq's security troubles, Taylor said there was much to be "optimistic" about in the country's economy with more signs of activity since the country's January 30 election.

    "There is a lot of economic activity that you can see just by driving around the streets," said the official, who told reporters he had not been confined to the high-security Green Zone while in Baghdad.

    "The necessary economic and political foundations are taking root to ensure Iraq's prosperity," he said.

    frosty

  12. #12
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    Default

    this article marks the one year anniversary of the dinar and the 5 billion was seinorage created.



    http://iraq.usembassy.gov/iraq/041024_dinar.html

  13. #13
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    Default Excellent!

    This is the section that got me:
    /---------------------------------------

    "As President Bush mentioned in the St. Louis debate, the Finance Minister was amazed that the U.S. press coverage missed all this good economic news about his country.

    The successful introduction of a new currency -- one of the crucial first steps in the stabilization of Iraq's economy -- did not occur by accident. It was the outcome of extensive and careful advance planning and close international cooperation begun in 2002 and culminating in the final approval by President Bush in the spring of 2003. I remember putting the plan forward in the White House situation room with the President asking tough questions of all of us -- Treasury, Defense and State -- about the economic significance, market acceptance, security, and logistics. Only after all his questions were fully answered did he give the go ahead.

    Then the plans were put into operation with the Iraqis and the Coalition Provisional Authority working together. To make this all happen, twenty-seven 747 planeloads of the new currency were printed in record time at seven different locations around the world. The currency was then flown into Baghdad, and distributed to over 250 distribution points all over the country. Millions of Iraqis came with bags full of old currency, and lined up to get the new currency. Finally, the old currency was destroyed. A retired U.S. general, who had been running a bank in the United States, volunteered to oversee logistical operations. He sent situation reports from Baghdad to Washington and other coalition capitals everyday. Each report concluded with his motto "Teamwork That Works!" And it did work."
    /---------------------------------------

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by DINAR_TIME
    I cant wait to tell my boss to stick his lousy job where the sun dont shine...

    Ooops, sorry I'm self employed

    :lmao:
    Hey, at least you'll understand where you're coming from!
    $.26-$.42 usd/dinar by end of may. Rising to 1usd/1dinar by eoy '08. (gonna get into community volunteer work.....after golf)

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shea
    This is the section that got me:
    /---------------------------------------

    "As President Bush mentioned in the St. Louis debate, the Finance Minister was amazed that the U.S. press coverage missed all this good economic news about his country.

    The successful introduction of a new currency -- one of the crucial first steps in the stabilization of Iraq's economy -- did not occur by accident. It was the outcome of extensive and careful advance planning and close international cooperation begun in 2002 and culminating in the final approval by President Bush in the spring of 2003. I remember putting the plan forward in the White House situation room with the President asking tough questions of all of us -- Treasury, Defense and State -- about the economic significance, market acceptance, security, and logistics. Only after all his questions were fully answered did he give the go ahead.

    Then the plans were put into operation with the Iraqis and the Coalition Provisional Authority working together. To make this all happen, twenty-seven 747 planeloads of the new currency were printed in record time at seven different locations around the world. The currency was then flown into Baghdad, and distributed to over 250 distribution points all over the country. Millions of Iraqis came with bags full of old currency, and lined up to get the new currency. Finally, the old currency was destroyed. A retired U.S. general, who had been running a bank in the United States, volunteered to oversee logistical operations. He sent situation reports from Baghdad to Washington and other coalition capitals everyday. Each report concluded with his motto "Teamwork That Works!" And it did work."
    /---------------------------------------
    This pretty much sums up why the dinar will never be worthless in the future.

  16. #16
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    Default Tip for Dinar Time

    that could be painful. proceed with caution... :p

    Quote Originally Posted by DINAR_TIME
    I cant wait to tell my boss to stick his lousy job where the sun dont shine...

    Ooops, sorry I'm self employed

    :lmao:
    what I like about telling the truth is
    you don't have to remember what you said. ;)

    http://www.roastsntoasts.com

  17. #17
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    Default

    One thing to keep in mind is that when the dinar (or any other currency) goes on the foreign exchange the transactions do not necessarily represent trading by that country's banking system. In fact the majority of the forex volume is never touches the country's banking system.

    Example: I want to sell my dinar. I go to my bank and tell the foreign currency desk I want to sell, they put a sell offer on their network, another bank has a customer that needs dinar for a business deal in Iraq and has a buy order for 40 million. They are posting a price of .15USD. I say no-way I want .17. The two banks communicate and I settle for .1625USD. I give my dinar to my bank, the other bank pays my bank who pays me, my bank sends the dinar to the customer's bank. Every one is happy. I have my dollars, the other guy has his dinar, the banks have their percentage. This is a bank to bank deal AND NO DOLLARS CAME OUT OF THE CBI ACCOUNT.

    The only time that money will ever come out of CBI pockets is if the dinar holder cannot sell on the world markets and goes to the CBI and demands exchange. When that happens they have to have enough to cover the request, but this is not likely if the global community has confidence that they could go and get their money from CBI.

    It's kind of way nations deal with unfriendly nations. You don't have to be able to beat them you just have to have the ability to, or at least have sufficient ability that they think you can beat them. When you do something that makes them doubt you can take them, or think you won't do anything is when the trouble occurs.

    Same with the currency. As long as everyone is confident that the currency will be useful to buy what is desired and/or they are confident that they can sell it on the market for currency that they can use to buy what they want they won't go to the central banks. If they loose that confidence and the central bank can backup the currency with some hard reserve, ie. gold, oil, foreign currency it still isn't a big problem because some will go and exchange but others won't. The problem occurs when the global market looses confidence in the currency being able to buy what is desired and it simultaneously looses confidence that they can go to the central band and get "good" cash in exchange. Then you have folks "running" on the banks depleting the "good" cash reservers, further reducing confidence, etc, etc.

    This is why CBI is being really careful to maintain the "official value" at a level that they can pay off every dinar they have out there in open circulation in "good currency". At present they could do that with about 4.5 Billion dollars and we now know they have 5 billion.

    This is all a confidence issue. They are telling the world "See I have 5 billion in cash! My currency is for-positive-sure worth the official value." Because of this confidence folks are not going to go and try to cash in their dinar but are going to trust it for business and the forex value is going to rise.
    when in doubt call in the fast movers...

  18. #18
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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by DINAR_TIME
    Can You imagine the ripple effect of the US Economy if the dinar opens at ONE CENT, FIVE or TEN CENTS
    I can imagine the ripple effect it's going to have any whatever boxers I wear that day.

    frosty

  19. #19
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    Default well put

    Quote Originally Posted by Brojeffrey
    One thing to keep in mind is that when the dinar (or any other currency) goes on the foreign exchange the transactions do not necessarily represent trading by that country's banking system. In fact the majority of the forex volume is never touches the country's banking system.

    Example: I want to sell my dinar. I go to my bank and tell the foreign currency desk I want to sell, they put a sell offer on their network, another bank has a customer that needs dinar for a business deal in Iraq and has a buy order for 40 million. They are posting a price of .15USD. I say no-way I want .17. The two banks communicate and I settle for .1625USD. I give my dinar to my bank, the other bank pays my bank who pays me, my bank sends the dinar to the customer's bank. Every one is happy. I have my dollars, the other guy has his dinar, the banks have their percentage. This is a bank to bank deal AND NO DOLLARS CAME OUT OF THE CBI ACCOUNT.

    The only time that money will ever come out of CBI pockets is if the dinar holder cannot sell on the world markets and goes to the CBI and demands exchange. When that happens they have to have enough to cover the request, but this is not likely if the global community has confidence that they could go and get their money from CBI.

    It's kind of way nations deal with unfriendly nations. You don't have to be able to beat them you just have to have the ability to, or at least have sufficient ability that they think you can beat them. When you do something that makes them doubt you can take them, or think you won't do anything is when the trouble occurs.

    Same with the currency. As long as everyone is confident that the currency will be useful to buy what is desired and/or they are confident that they can sell it on the market for currency that they can use to buy what they want they won't go to the central banks. If they loose that confidence and the central bank can backup the currency with some hard reserve, ie. gold, oil, foreign currency it still isn't a big problem because some will go and exchange but others won't. The problem occurs when the global market looses confidence in the currency being able to buy what is desired and it simultaneously looses confidence that they can go to the central band and get "good" cash in exchange. Then you have folks "running" on the banks depleting the "good" cash reservers, further reducing confidence, etc, etc.

    This is why CBI is being really careful to maintain the "official value" at a level that they can pay off every dinar they have out there in open circulation in "good currency". At present they could do that with about 4.5 Billion dollars and we now know they have 5 billion.

    This is all a confidence issue. They are telling the world "See I have 5 billion in cash! My currency is for-positive-sure worth the official value." Because of this confidence folks are not going to go and try to cash in their dinar but are going to trust it for business and the forex value is going to rise.

    thanks for the explaination. Kinda like George Bailey in "it's a wonderful life" when they had the run on the bank in the days b/4 they were backed by the FDIC?
    what I like about telling the truth is
    you don't have to remember what you said. ;)

    http://www.roastsntoasts.com

  20. #20
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    I keep thinking about the Afgan chart presented in another thread. There are 2 lines of thinking with it in regards to NID.

    On one hand, you see the value go high and think Iraq can do AT LEAST that do to resources a plenty verses Afgan.

    On the other, you think no way it goes up due to all the bad press and the insurgents causing mayhem where stability is a real issue.

    I personally correspond with a solder there in Bagdad. He stated it really ain't that bad. He related it to what goes on in parts of the US where any person wouldn't go to typically, IE East STL/Compton/etc ( these are examples he made mind you). You will always have pockets of bad things happening but it is minor compared to the overall scheme of things. Said he went fishing the other day and caught an 8 lb bass. He said what every one fears are the rocket launchers and mortars.

    Putting this thing together, I tend to think towards the former rather than the latter. It may take a little time to get there, but it will happen. The inner child in me keeps asking, ARE WE THERE YET? I kept telling him to shut up and sit down!! We'll get there eventually. :P

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